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Predictions graded

South East Melbourne115Cairns Taipans83

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 06:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–1338%

Points by period: South East Melbourne and Cairns Taipans.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
South East Melbourne	27	35	27	26
Cairns Taipans	35	19	9	20

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Cairns arrive on a three-game NBL winning run while South East Melbourne have lost three of their past four, yet the expected score of 95.6-93.3 after 40 minutes still points to a narrow Phoenix home win.

Cairns' road scoring and the Phoenix's home form keep it close. No prices are available for this game, so the Phoenix +2.5 start, the under on 193.5 combined points and Cairns over 84.5 points stay unpriced forecasts.

Context

Cairns have won three straight and had almost a week between games, while South East Melbourne played on 15 October and sit 2-5. Sobey's place is undecided after a knock and Dech is out for at least four weeks, so both guard rotations carry uncertainty into this game.

Sobey is a South East Melbourne co-captain and part of the starting backcourt. A knock that leaves him sore two days before tip-off creates uncertainty over how the Phoenix set up their guard rotation against Cairns. No participation decision has been announced, so whether he starts, is limited or sits out remains open.
- Josh King said Sobey was sore after a knock he could not identify as knee-on-knee or a cork.
- Sobey was sent back into the game so he would not stiffen up, with the club to review how he moves over the following days.
Dech is a guard in Cairns' rotation, and the minimum four-week absence covers the trip to South East Melbourne. Adam Forde must keep covering his minutes, with the backcourt reshuffled around the players available. Because no firm return date was set, the exact length of the absence remains open.
- Cairns ruled Sunday Dech out for at least four weeks with a hamstring injury on 7 October.
- The club did not set a specific return date beyond the four-week minimum.
Morin is an import big man in South East Melbourne's frontcourt rotation. The decision not to sign defensive cover means the Phoenix will manage Cairns' big men with the same group through this stretch of the season. It confirms continuity in the frontcourt rather than a roster change before this game.
- Josh King said the Phoenix would keep backing Yannis Morin because he can help the team win.
- King ruled out adding a defensive signing, pointing to the players already in the locker room.
Cairns arrive on a three-game run and with almost a week between games. The streak has come with a settled rotation and a heavier role for Malique Lewis. South East Melbourne have lost three of their past four, so the two clubs reach tip-off in contrasting form.
- Cairns beat Melbourne United, Brisbane and Illawarra in consecutive games between 3 and 11 October.
- Cairns won 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October, with Jack McVeigh leading the way.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. Cairns Taipans cover +3.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostCairns Taipans +3.5Estimated chance64.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. South East Melbourne cover +2.5 (overtime included) in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · HandicapwonSouth East Melbourne +2.5Estimated chance62.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. South East Melbourne cover +1.5 in the 1st quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostSouth East Melbourne +1.5Estimated chance61.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. South East Melbourne cover +0.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonSouth East Melbourne +0.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. South East Melbourne win in about 57 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. Cairns Taipans cover +1.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostCairns Taipans +1.5Estimated chance55.5%

Points5 of 15 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. The 1st quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 83 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonOver 40.5Estimated chance82.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. Cairns Taipans score more than 84.5 points (overtime included) in about 81 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · Team PointslostCairns Taipans over 84.5Estimated chance80.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. South East Melbourne score fewer than 27.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 75 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostSouth East Melbourne under 27.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. South East Melbourne score fewer than 26.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 71 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostSouth East Melbourne under 26.5Estimated chance71.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. Cairns Taipans score fewer than 25.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonCairns Taipans under 25.5Estimated chance67.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. Cairns Taipans score more than 43.5 points in the 1st half in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonCairns Taipans over 43.5Estimated chance67.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. Cairns Taipans score fewer than 25.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostCairns Taipans under 25.5Estimated chance66.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 49.5 points in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 49.5Estimated chance64.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 49.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 49.5Estimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. South East Melbourne score more than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonSouth East Melbourne over 22.5Estimated chance60.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. The 1st half has fewer than 97.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 97.5Estimated chance60.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. The game has fewer than 193.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · Total PointslostUnder 193.5Estimated chance58.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. South East Melbourne score fewer than 98.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · Team PointslostSouth East Melbourne under 98.5Estimated chance58.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. South East Melbourne score fewer than 49.5 points in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostSouth East Melbourne under 49.5Estimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 95.6, Cairns Taipans 93.3. Cairns Taipans score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Cairns Taipans, across seasons and competitions.
- Current NBL season (7 games to 15 October 2026): South East Melbourne average 93.9 points for and 95.4 against; Cairns average 91.6 for and 95.0 against.
- Cairns away form in 2026-27 is 90.2 scored and 97.4 conceded across five road games, while South East Melbourne at home average 91.0 for and 95.3 against in three games, dragged down by a 61-86 loss to Melbourne United on 24 September.
- Cairns have won three straight, 3-11 October, averaging 104.7 points in that run, including 110-100 at Illawarra on 11 October.
- Across the 15 tracked box scores, South East Melbourne shoot 30.7% from three and turn it over 9.7 times a game; Cairns shoot 32.8% from three and turn it over 10.9 times.
- Head-to-head, South East Melbourne won all four 2025-26 meetings, most recently 118-91 on 24 January 2026, but those rosters have since changed.
- Rest differs: South East Melbourne last played 15 October (two days before tip-off), Cairns last played 11 October (six days).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostCairns Taipans over 22.5Estimated chance56.6%

W118–91

South East Melbournev

Cairns Taipans

Jan 24, 2026·NBL

W96–111

Cairns Taipansv

South East Melbourne

Dec 31, 2025·NBL

W90–101

Cairns Taipansv

South East Melbourne

Nov 14, 2025·NBL

W114–77

South East Melbournev

Cairns Taipans

Sep 20, 2025·NBL

W102–113

Cairns Taipansv

South East Melbourne

Jan 14, 2025·NBL

W99–94

South East Melbournev

Cairns Taipans

Dec 7, 2024·NBL

W97–74

South East Melbournev

Cairns Taipans

Nov 10, 2024·NBL

L94–75

Cairns Taipansv

South East Melbourne

Dec 22, 2023·NBL

W91–78

South East Melbournev

Cairns Taipans

Nov 5, 2023·NBL

L87–80

Cairns Taipansv

South East Melbourne

Oct 5, 2023·NBL

188.2Avg total points

16.8Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

South East Melbourne

2–529%

Cairns Taipans

4–357%

Recent Form

South East Melbourne

6W 9L · last 15

at Brisbane Bullets105–115 Oct 15NBL

vs Melbourne United99–104 Oct 10NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks113–96 Oct 4NBL

at Perth88–92 Oct 2NBL

vs Melbourne United61–86 Sep 24NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers91–96 Sep 21NBL

at Perth100–79 Sep 19NBL

at Adelaide96–108 Mar 17NBL

vs Adelaide101–92 Mar 14NBL

at Adelaide97–104 Mar 10NBL

vs Perth111–94 Mar 4NBL

at Melbourne United91–95 Feb 19NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers120–104 Feb 14NBL

vs Sydney88–114 Feb 8NBL

at New Zealand Breakers114–83 Feb 5NBL

Cairns Taipans

6W 9L · last 15

at Illawarra Hawks110–100 Oct 11NBL

vs Brisbane Bullets97–91 Oct 8NBL

at Melbourne United107–95 Oct 3NBL

at New Zealand Breakers75–98 Sep 30NBL

at Adelaide69–83 Sep 27NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers93–87 Sep 23NBL

at Sydney90–111 Sep 20NBL

at New Zealand Breakers84–115 Feb 19NBL

vs Melbourne United85–89 Feb 12NBL

at Brisbane Bullets81–72 Feb 8NBL

at Perth84–98 Feb 6NBL

vs Sydney92–106 Feb 1NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers96–93 OTJan 30NBL

at South East Melbourne91–118 Jan 24NBL

at Perth69–106 Jan 22NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

South East Melbourne

Stats

2–2

Cairns Taipans

The teams split the 4 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–2

2-point %—

54.5%

—

54.5%

3-point %+2.1pp

30.7%

+2.1pp

32.8%

Free-throw %+2.3pp

80.2%

+2.3pp

82.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.1pp apart

35.4%

2.1pp apart

37.5%

Free throws per shot1.0pp apart

25.9%

1.0pp apart

24.9%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+5.2

35.9

+5.2

30.7

Turnovers per game1.2 fewer

9.7

1.2 fewer

10.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.