Liga AFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

San Lorenzo85Penarol92

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 00:05 Predictions graded

Predictions13–1154%

Points by period: San Lorenzo and Penarol.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
San Lorenzo	22	22	18	23
Penarol	28	17	26	21

Quick Take

Pre-match view

San Lorenzo and Peñarol both arrive unbeaten in Liga A, but Peñarol won at Lanús only two days before this trip.

San Lorenzo beat the reigning champions in their opener and have won the last three meetings by eight or more; the likelier outcome is a San Lorenzo win, with an expected 84.8-79.2 after 40 minutes. No prices are available for this fixture, so nothing here is a priced bet.

Context

Peñarol play two days after their 84-77 win at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about eight days since their 89-73 opener against the champions. San Lorenzo have also won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings, so the rest contrast and recent series history shape how this matchup sets up.

Peñarol began the 2026-27 Liga Nacional with a 62-57 home win over Gimnasia and followed it with the 84-77 success at Lanús, so they arrive in Boedo with two wins from two. The scoring was spread across the rotation, with Basualdo posting a double-double and Guerra adding 16 points. The road win is the strongest early signal of Peñarol's form before they meet San Lorenzo, although two games is a small sample and the home side offer a different test.
- Peñarol beat Lanús 84-77 away on 14 October in their second Liga Nacional game of the season.
- The visitors recovered from a slow start and controlled the second half through their defence.
- Guerra scored 16 points, while Basualdo added 11 points and 11 rebounds.
San Lorenzo began the 2026-27 campaign by beating the team that won the previous Liga Nacional title. Raynere Thornton's 15 points led the scoring and Santiago Calderón added 14 from the bench, giving the new-look rotation a winning start. The result sets a positive tone before Peñarol visit, although the opener is a single reference point for the side under head coach Gonzalo García.
- San Lorenzo won their season opener 89-73 at home against Gimnasia de Comodoro Rivadavia.
- Gimnasia (CR) went into the game as the reigning Liga Nacional champions.
- Raynere Thornton scored 15 points and Santiago Calderón added 14 from the bench.
Pérez Tapia led Peñarol's scoring in the win at Lanús, producing 18 points, five rebounds and three steals while his team pulled clear after a slow start. He was the game's top scorer and the main reference in the Peñarol attack. San Lorenzo will need to account for his shot creation and activity on the boards, though one strong outing does not guarantee the same output in Boedo.
- Agustín Pérez Tapia finished with 18 points and five rebounds in the 84-77 win at Lanús.
- He was the game's leading scorer.
Calderón's first Liga Nacional appearance came in San Lorenzo's opening home win, and he scored 14 points as a reserve. The debut adds a fresh face to the rotation before Peñarol visit, but a single game is a limited guide to how much responsibility he will carry against a Peñarol side already two games into its season.
- Santiago Calderón made his Liga Nacional debut in San Lorenzo's season opener.
- He scored 14 points from the bench in the 89-73 win over Gimnasia de Comodoro Rivadavia.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostSan Lorenzo +2.5Estimated chance69.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo cover +1.5 (overtime included) in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · HandicaplostSan Lorenzo +1.5Estimated chance69.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo cover +1.5 in the 1st half in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonSan Lorenzo +1.5Estimated chance68.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo win in about 67 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSan LorenzoEstimated chance67.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo cover +1.5 in the 1st quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostSan Lorenzo +1.5Estimated chance65.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostSan LorenzoEstimated chance64.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostSan LorenzoEstimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonSan LorenzoEstimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonSan Lorenzo -0.5Estimated chance56.9%

Points10 of 15 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. The 1st half has more than 75.5 points in about 74 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonOver 75.5Estimated chance73.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. The 1st quarter has more than 36.5 points in about 74 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonOver 36.5Estimated chance73.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo score more than 18.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 72 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonSan Lorenzo over 18.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. The 2nd quarter has more than 37.5 points in about 70 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 37.5Estimated chance69.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo score more than 80.5 points (overtime included) in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · Team PointswonSan Lorenzo over 80.5Estimated chance67.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. Penarol score fewer than 42.5 points in the 1st half in about 66 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostPenarol under 42.5Estimated chance66.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. The game has more than 158.5 points (overtime included) in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 158.5Estimated chance64.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo score more than 19.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonSan Lorenzo over 19.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. Penarol score fewer than 21.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostPenarol under 21.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo score more than 40.5 points in the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonSan Lorenzo over 40.5Estimated chance61.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. San Lorenzo score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostSan Lorenzo over 19.5Estimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. Penarol score fewer than 81.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · Team PointslostPenarol under 81.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. Penarol score fewer than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostPenarol under 20.5Estimated chance56.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. Penarol score fewer than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonPenarol under 20.5Estimated chance56.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Lorenzo 84.8, Penarol 79.2. The 3rd quarter has more than 39.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Lorenzo and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- San Lorenzo opened 2026-27 with an 89-73 home win over reigning champions Gimnasia on 9 October, their only game this season (1-game sample).
- In 14 Liga A games from 2025-26, San Lorenzo averaged 79.4 points scored and 81.7 conceded; at home they scored 81.0 and conceded 84.3 over 6 games.
- Peñarol are 2-0 in 2026-27, beating Gimnasia 62-57 at home (30 September) and Lanús 84-77 away (14 October).
- In 13 Liga A games from 2025-26, Peñarol averaged 82.9 points scored and 84.9 conceded, with 36.3 rebounds per game against San Lorenzo's 31.3 across 15 games.
- San Lorenzo won the last three head-to-head Liga A meetings: 79-71 (15 March 2026), 82-74 (26 September 2025) and 76-63 (5 April 2025), all by 8 points or more.
- Peñarol play two days after their road game at Lanús, while San Lorenzo have had about 8 days since their opener.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 39.5Estimated chance55.8%

W71–79

Penarolv

San Lorenzo

Mar 15, 2026·LIG

W82–74

San Lorenzov Penarol

Penarol

Sep 26, 2025·LIG

W76–63

San Lorenzov Penarol

Penarol

Apr 5, 2025·LIG

L80–77

Penarolv

San Lorenzo

Jan 10, 2025·LIG

L80–75

Penarolv

San Lorenzo

Apr 23, 2024·LIG

W88–65

San Lorenzov Penarol

Penarol

Nov 15, 2023·LIG

L75–99

San Lorenzov Penarol

Penarol

Jan 18, 2023·LIG

L79–70

Penarolv

San Lorenzo

Oct 21, 2022·LIG

L73–76

San Lorenzov Penarol

Penarol

Feb 14, 2022·LIG

L82–72

Penarolv

San Lorenzo

Jan 27, 2022·LIG

153.6Avg total points

10.6Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Liga A · Liga A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

San Lorenzo

1–0100%

Penarol

1–0100%

Recent Form

San Lorenzo

6W 9L · last 15

vs Gimnasia89–73 Oct 9LIG

at Obras Sanitarias70–76 Apr 18LIG

at Argentino70–80 Apr 15LIG

at Racing de Chivilcoy66–80 Apr 12LIG

vs Boca Juniors77–83 Apr 4LIG

vs Gimnasia73–81 Mar 30LIG

vs Olimpico80–69 Mar 26LIG

vs Platense107–103 Mar 18LIG

at Penarol79–71 Mar 15LIG

at San Martin72–77 Mar 9LIG

at Regatas89–69 Mar 7LIG

at Ferro77–90 Feb 23LIG

vs Instituto de Cordoba67–86 Feb 21LIG

vs Quimsa82–84 Feb 19LIG

vs Obera TC102–95 OTFeb 16LIG

Penarol

7W 8L · last 15

at Lanus84–77 Oct 14LIG

vs Gimnasia62–57 Sep 30LIG

vs Ferro68–84 May 3LIG

vs Ferro87–75 May 1LIG

at Ferro78–80 Apr 26LIG

at Ferro91–97 Apr 24LIG

vs Ferro87–80 Apr 20LIG

at Obera TC81–84 Apr 17LIG

at La Union85–91 Apr 15LIG

vs Union De Santa Fe85–83 Apr 5LIG

at Atenas85–95 Apr 1LIG

at Instituto de Cordoba83–68 Mar 29LIG

at Independiente de Oliva107–102 Mar 28LIG

at Boca Juniors70–86 Mar 18LIG

vs San Lorenzo71–79 Mar 15LIG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

San Lorenzo

Stats

2–2

Penarol

The teams split the 4 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+1.6pp

56.2%

+1.6pp

54.6%

3-point %+0.8pp

31.9%

+0.8pp

32.7%

Free-throw %+1.2pp

71.8%

+1.2pp

70.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.3pp apart

29.8%

1.3pp apart

31.1%

Free throws per shot5.5pp apart

36.6%

5.5pp apart

42.1%

Possession· 0–1

Rebounds per game+5.0

31.3

+5.0

36.3

Turnovers per game—

0.0

—

0.0

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.