Korfez Basket69Tofas71

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–713%

Points by period: Korfez Basket and Tofas.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Korfez Basket	20	15	19	15
Tofas	19	7	15	30

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Tofaş are unbeaten in Europe but 1-2 in the Super Lig, and they visit a Körfez side that has just won in the FIBA Europe Cup.

A close home win, around 88-85, is the more likely outcome. The reviewed unders, 173.5 combined points at 1.82 and Körfez under 87.5 at 1.81, do not hold up, and no price stands out.

Context

Both teams played on 14 October, leaving roughly three days between games, and Körfez carry a narrow rotation after Emre Ekşioğlu's knee injury. Tofaş's league defence has conceded 92.3 points per game through three rounds while their EuroCup form is built on 87.0 points scored and 78.7 allowed per game.

Tofaş have split their season cleanly: unbeaten in the EuroCup, still searching in the league. The 90-85 win over Budućnost on 14 October kept Massimo Cancellieri's starting five intact and spread the scoring through Nutall, Jones and Reynolds, with Yiğitcan Saybir and Sadık Emir Kabaca contributing from the frontcourt. That game finished three days before this tip-off, so the same core is expected to carry the load again in Kocaeli. The uncertainty is whether European rhythm transfers: Tofaş have won once in the league and have not yet defended at a playoff level, so the continental run may be flattering a side that is still finding its league identity.
- Tofaş beat Budućnost Voli Podgorica 90-85 on 14 October, a third win in three EuroCup Group C games.
- Zach Nutall scored 20 points, while Bryce Jones had 11 and Shavar Reynolds 8 as Tofaş led 52-44 at half-time.
- Bryce Jones, Shavar Reynolds, Gabe Brown, Yiğitcan Saybir and Terrell Carter formed the starting five.
The contrast with Europe frames this game. The group that is 3-0 in the EuroCup sits on one win from three league matches, and the defensive numbers explain the gap: Tofaş ranked 15th of 16 for defence after three rounds while their offence ranked ninth. The home defeat by Erokspor came four days before the Budućnost win, and the recovery in Europe was built on scoring rather than stops. Against a Körfez side whose guards have been productive, Tofaş may again need Nutall and Reynolds to trade baskets. Three days separate the EuroCup game from this tip-off, leaving little room to fix the league problems.
- Tofaş lost 79-87 at home to Esenler Erokspor on 10 October.
- Mike Davis Jr scored 18 points for Erokspor in that game.
- After three league rounds Tofaş had one win and two defeats.
Tofaş's half-court offence runs through Bryce Jones creating and Nutall's shot-making, and the roster has no specialist wing shooter, which is why Thurman keeps sliding from power forward to the three while Brown rests. That shapes the matchup: Körfez have defended the paint better than anyone in the league through three rounds while conceding more than anyone to opposing shooting guards, so Tofaş's route is guard-led rather than through post-ups. Nutall's 20 points against Budućnost suggest the perimeter problem may be easing, but that is one game and no shooting wing has been added. If the outside shot stays cold, Tofaş's offence narrows to isolations.
- Through the first two league rounds Tofaş had no reliable outside shooter in the rotation.
- Tre'shawn Thurman was used at small forward so that Gabe Brown could rest.
- Zach Nutall and Shavar Reynolds carry the scoring load next to Bryce Jones.
- Through three rounds Körfez's power-forward and centre defence ranked first in the league, while their shooting-guard defence ranked last.
Ekşioğlu arrived from Fenerbahçe as Körfez's main Turkish option and was hurt before the season had properly started. He watched his old club's game in Istanbul on crutches on 4 October, was thanked publicly by Fenerbahçe and has not played since, leaving Serhan Kavut with Mert Akay, Altan Çamoğlu and Berk Can Akın as the domestic backcourt alternatives while imports Johnny Davis, Filip Barna and Matt Mitchell absorb the minutes. No return date has been set. For this game the effect is a shorter bench and heavier reliance on those imports three days after the FIBA Europe Cup win over Chalon.
- Emre Ekşioğlu said on 22 September that he had undergone successful surgery after an injury in training.
- He joined Körfez from Fenerbahçe in the summer and returned to his former arena on crutches on 4 October.
- He is not expected to return this season after the cruciate ligament tear.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Korfez Basket 88.4, Tofas 85.4. Korfez Basket cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 7 completed games for Korfez Basket and 15 for Tofas, across seasons and competitions.
- Körfez are 2-1 in the 2026-27 Super Lig, averaging 87.7 points scored and 84.7 allowed, including a 91-90 win at Petkimspor on 10 October.
- Tofaş are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 85.3 scored and 92.3 allowed, after a 79-87 home loss to Esenler Erokspor on 10 October and an 87-101 loss at Denizli on 3 October.
- Tofaş are 3-0 in the EuroCup, averaging 87.0 scored and 78.7 allowed, most recently beating Budućnost 90-85 on 14 October.
- Körfez beat Chalon 74-65 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, with Johnny Davis scoring 21 and Oscar Cluff adding 12 points and 15 rebounds.
- Over 7 games this season Körfez shoot 52.0% inside the arc and 34.5% from three; over 15 games Tofaş shoot 58.3% inside and 29.2% from three.
- Körfez average 33.9 rebounds and 13.6 turnovers in 7 games, against Tofaş's 29.9 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 15.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonKorfez Basket +2.5Estimated chance66.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Korfez Basket 88.4, Tofas 85.4. Korfez Basket win in about 59 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Körfez are 2-1 in the 2026-27 Super Lig, averaging 87.7 points scored and 84.7 allowed, including a 91-90 win at Petkimspor on 10 October.
- Tofaş are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 85.3 scored and 92.3 allowed, after a 79-87 home loss to Esenler Erokspor on 10 October and an 87-101 loss at Denizli on 3 October.
- Tofaş are 3-0 in the EuroCup, averaging 87.0 scored and 78.7 allowed, most recently beating Budućnost 90-85 on 14 October.
- Körfez beat Chalon 74-65 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, with Johnny Davis scoring 21 and Oscar Cluff adding 12 points and 15 rebounds.
- Over 7 games this season Körfez shoot 52.0% inside the arc and 34.5% from three; over 15 games Tofaş shoot 58.3% inside and 29.2% from three.
- Körfez average 33.9 rebounds and 13.6 turnovers in 7 games, against Tofaş's 29.9 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 15.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKorfez BasketEstimated chance59.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Korfez Basket 88.4, Tofas 85.4. Tofas cover +2.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 7 completed games for Korfez Basket and 15 for Tofas, across seasons and competitions.
- Körfez are 2-1 in the 2026-27 Super Lig, averaging 87.7 points scored and 84.7 allowed, including a 91-90 win at Petkimspor on 10 October.
- Tofaş are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 85.3 scored and 92.3 allowed, after a 79-87 home loss to Esenler Erokspor on 10 October and an 87-101 loss at Denizli on 3 October.
- Tofaş are 3-0 in the EuroCup, averaging 87.0 scored and 78.7 allowed, most recently beating Budućnost 90-85 on 14 October.
- Körfez beat Chalon 74-65 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, with Johnny Davis scoring 21 and Oscar Cluff adding 12 points and 15 rebounds.
- Over 7 games this season Körfez shoot 52.0% inside the arc and 34.5% from three; over 15 games Tofaş shoot 58.3% inside and 29.2% from three.
- Körfez average 33.9 rebounds and 13.6 turnovers in 7 games, against Tofaş's 29.9 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 15.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostTofas +2.5Estimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Korfez Basket 88.4, Tofas 85.4. Korfez Basket cover -1.5 (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Körfez are 2-1 in the 2026-27 Super Lig, averaging 87.7 points scored and 84.7 allowed, including a 91-90 win at Petkimspor on 10 October.
- Tofaş are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 85.3 scored and 92.3 allowed, after a 79-87 home loss to Esenler Erokspor on 10 October and an 87-101 loss at Denizli on 3 October.
- Tofaş are 3-0 in the EuroCup, averaging 87.0 scored and 78.7 allowed, most recently beating Budućnost 90-85 on 14 October.
- Körfez beat Chalon 74-65 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, with Johnny Davis scoring 21 and Oscar Cluff adding 12 points and 15 rebounds.
- Over 7 games this season Körfez shoot 52.0% inside the arc and 34.5% from three; over 15 games Tofaş shoot 58.3% inside and 29.2% from three.
- Körfez average 33.9 rebounds and 13.6 turnovers in 7 games, against Tofaş's 29.9 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 15.
BetBugs · HandicaplostKorfez Basket -1.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Korfez Basket 88.4, Tofas 85.4. Korfez Basket are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Körfez are 2-1 in the 2026-27 Super Lig, averaging 87.7 points scored and 84.7 allowed, including a 91-90 win at Petkimspor on 10 October.
- Tofaş are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 85.3 scored and 92.3 allowed, after a 79-87 home loss to Esenler Erokspor on 10 October and an 87-101 loss at Denizli on 3 October.
- Tofaş are 3-0 in the EuroCup, averaging 87.0 scored and 78.7 allowed, most recently beating Budućnost 90-85 on 14 October.
- Körfez beat Chalon 74-65 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, with Johnny Davis scoring 21 and Oscar Cluff adding 12 points and 15 rebounds.
- Over 7 games this season Körfez shoot 52.0% inside the arc and 34.5% from three; over 15 games Tofaş shoot 58.3% inside and 29.2% from three.
- Körfez average 33.9 rebounds and 13.6 turnovers in 7 games, against Tofaş's 29.9 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 15.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostKorfez BasketEstimated chance57.1%

Points0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Korfez Basket 88.4, Tofas 85.4. The 2nd quarter has more than 42.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Körfez are 2-1 in the 2026-27 Super Lig, averaging 87.7 points scored and 84.7 allowed, including a 91-90 win at Petkimspor on 10 October.
- Tofaş are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 85.3 scored and 92.3 allowed, after a 79-87 home loss to Esenler Erokspor on 10 October and an 87-101 loss at Denizli on 3 October.
- Tofaş are 3-0 in the EuroCup, averaging 87.0 scored and 78.7 allowed, most recently beating Budućnost 90-85 on 14 October.
- Körfez beat Chalon 74-65 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, with Johnny Davis scoring 21 and Oscar Cluff adding 12 points and 15 rebounds.
- Over 7 games this season Körfez shoot 52.0% inside the arc and 34.5% from three; over 15 games Tofaş shoot 58.3% inside and 29.2% from three.
- Körfez average 33.9 rebounds and 13.6 turnovers in 7 games, against Tofaş's 29.9 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 15.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 42.5Estimated chance56.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Korfez Basket 88.4, Tofas 85.4. Korfez Basket score more than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Körfez are 2-1 in the 2026-27 Super Lig, averaging 87.7 points scored and 84.7 allowed, including a 91-90 win at Petkimspor on 10 October.
- Tofaş are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 85.3 scored and 92.3 allowed, after a 79-87 home loss to Esenler Erokspor on 10 October and an 87-101 loss at Denizli on 3 October.
- Tofaş are 3-0 in the EuroCup, averaging 87.0 scored and 78.7 allowed, most recently beating Budućnost 90-85 on 14 October.
- Körfez beat Chalon 74-65 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, with Johnny Davis scoring 21 and Oscar Cluff adding 12 points and 15 rebounds.
- Over 7 games this season Körfez shoot 52.0% inside the arc and 34.5% from three; over 15 games Tofaş shoot 58.3% inside and 29.2% from three.
- Körfez average 33.9 rebounds and 13.6 turnovers in 7 games, against Tofaş's 29.9 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 15.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostKorfez Basket over 21.5Estimated chance56.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Korfez Basket 88.4, Tofas 85.4. Korfez Basket score more than 87.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Körfez are 2-1 in the 2026-27 Super Lig, averaging 87.7 points scored and 84.7 allowed, including a 91-90 win at Petkimspor on 10 October.
- Tofaş are 1-2 in the same league, averaging 85.3 scored and 92.3 allowed, after a 79-87 home loss to Esenler Erokspor on 10 October and an 87-101 loss at Denizli on 3 October.
- Tofaş are 3-0 in the EuroCup, averaging 87.0 scored and 78.7 allowed, most recently beating Budućnost 90-85 on 14 October.
- Körfez beat Chalon 74-65 in the FIBA Europe Cup on 14 October, with Johnny Davis scoring 21 and Oscar Cluff adding 12 points and 15 rebounds.
- Over 7 games this season Körfez shoot 52.0% inside the arc and 34.5% from three; over 15 games Tofaş shoot 58.3% inside and 29.2% from three.
- Körfez average 33.9 rebounds and 13.6 turnovers in 7 games, against Tofaş's 29.9 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 15.
BetBugs · Team PointslostKorfez Basket over 87.5Estimated chance55.5%