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Predictions graded

Kolossos Rhodes84PAOK88

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Kolossos Rhodes and PAOK.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Kolossos Rhodes	21	26	19	18
PAOK	19	28	15	26

Quick Take

Pre-match view

PAOK have the better offence, averaging 86.9 points across seven games this season and shooting 61.4% on two-pointers, against a Kolossos side that scores well in Rhodes but lost 99-83 in Piraeus.

PAOK should win, though their league rotation is unsettled with Cedi Osman rested last domestic game. At 1.33 for PAOK there is nothing to take; Kolossos at 3.45 is the one worthwhile price.

Context

Both clubs played European road games on 13 October, leaving roughly four days before this fixture. PAOK's domestic selection is genuinely open: Cedi Osman sat out the 86-73 league win on 10 October, and Donatas Motiejunas joined the eight-man league list on 15 October in place of Clifford Omoruyi.

PAOK build their Basket League squad around an eight-man list of foreign players, and they changed it on 15 October. Clifford Omoruyi, the centre who was dropped from the EuroCup twelve in late September while the club searched the market for a big man, made way for Donatas Motiejunas. The swap reshapes Andrea Trinchieri's frontcourt for domestic games: Motiejunas can play in Rhodes, while Omoruyi sits outside the league list entirely. Kolossos's big men must now prepare for a PAOK centre rotation built around the Lithuanian rather than the more mobile Omoruyi. PAOK have not named their gameday twelve, so Motiejunas's appearance should be treated as expected rather than confirmed.
- PAOK filed Donatas Motiejunas on their eight-man foreign list for the Greek league on 15 October.
- Clifford Omoruyi came off that list to make room and is no longer available for PAOK in league games.
- PAOK had cut Omoruyi from their EuroCup twelve in late September while the club searched the market for a centre.
PAOK can dress only six foreign players in the Basket League, so Trinchieri's domestic selection already differs from his European one. Against Doxa Lefkadas he left out Osman, Nick Calathes, Donatas Motiejunas and Clifford Omoruyi; Mitrou-Long and Tyree carried the offence and PAOK still won by 13. Osman returned in the EuroCup three days later and scored 17 in Lithuania, and Trinchieri had spoken about managing his players after the Doxa win. That leaves the Turkish forward's involvement in Rhodes as a selection question, with PAOK yet to confirm their twelve and the same import squeeze possibly opening minutes for Mitrou-Long and Tyree again.
- PAOK beat Doxa Lefkadas 86-73 on 10 October without Cedi Osman and Nick Calathes.
- Naz Mitrou-Long and Breein Tyree took on the scoring burden in their absence.
- Andrea Trinchieri called it a professional win and said the players must be managed.
- Osman returned in the EuroCup at Lietkabelis on 13 October and scored 17 points.
PAOK's league start is their best in more than a decade, and it came while Trinchieri rotated his imports rather than fielding his European group. The first check arrived in Lithuania, where Lietkabelis won 95-86 and the coach questioned his team's energy and appetite, calling the night a reality check. It was PAOK's first defeat of the season in any competition. Four days later they are back on domestic duty in Rhodes, unbeaten in the competition they are playing in but arriving off a loss that put the spotlight on their intensity. Whether that defeat changes Trinchieri's rotation, or produces a reaction, is the open question for this fixture.
- PAOK beat Doxa Lefkadas 86-73 on 10 October for a 2-0 league start, their first since 2013-14.
- Andrea Trinchieri became the first PAOK coach to open a league career with two wins since 1999-00.
- Lietkabelis beat PAOK 95-86 in Panevezys on 13 October, ending PAOK's unbeaten EuroCup start.
- Trinchieri called the loss a reality check and said he could not accept the opponent wanting the win more.
Kolossos's league campaign has brought one heavy test so far, a 99-83 defeat at Olympiacos on 11 October in which they trailed by 10 at the last break before the home side pulled clear. Two days later they produced their best result of the season, 80-62 at Gence in Azerbaijan, dominating the boards and leaning on Payton Willis, and it made them 2-0 in the FIBA Europe Cup. That combination matters for PAOK's visit: Kolossos come home with a European win and a functioning offence, but their league form is unproven against the top half. The quick return from a long trip is the uncertainty, and Kolossos have not announced any rotation plans.
- Olympiacos beat Kolossos 99-83 in Piraeus on 11 October, with Kolossos trailing 77-67 after three quarters.
- Kolossos won 80-62 at Gence in Azerbaijan on 13 October, controlling the rebounds.
- Payton Willis was central to the win, which made it two victories from two FIBA Europe Cup games.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Kolossos Rhodes

3.45fair 2.82

Market 29% · BetBugs 35.5%

+6.5ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Kolossos Rhodes 81.8, PAOK 86.5. Kolossos Rhodes win in about 36 of 100 games like this, overtime included. PAOK have the stronger and more efficient offence of the two this season, converting two-pointers at a notably higher rate and winning the only league meeting in Rhodes last February, while Kolossos have scored well at home but conceded heavily against the one top side they faced. The edge is real but moderate: Kolossos are at home, scoring around 82-84 against the opponents they have met, and PAOK's domestic rotation is being shuffled.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kolossos Rhodes 81.8, PAOK 86.5. PAOK win in about 64 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Kolossos have scored 91 (v Lefkadas, Oct 3) and 77 (v Craiova, Oct 7) in their two home games this season, but conceded 99 in Piraeus on Oct 11.
- PAOK have averaged 86.9 points across seven games this season (Sep 26-Oct 13), including 88 at Mykonos on Oct 3, and have scored 86 or more in five of them.
- Across 15 tracked box scores PAOK shoot 61.4% on two-pointers (309/503) versus Kolossos 54.0% (302/559), with PAOK also ahead on rebounds (31.3 v 28.9) and turnovers (12.1 v 13.0).
- PAOK won both 2025-26 league meetings, 82-70 at home on Dec 6 and 90-78 in Rhodes on Feb 7, though those rosters differed.
- Kolossos have allowed 78.4 points per game over their last five outings (Sep 15-Oct 13), while PAOK's two Basket League games have come against Lefkadas and Mykonos.
- Both teams played European road games on Oct 13 and have roughly four days' rest before tipping off in Rhodes.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPAOKEstimated chance64.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kolossos Rhodes 81.8, PAOK 86.5. PAOK cover +1.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Kolossos Rhodes and 15 for PAOK, across seasons and competitions.
- Kolossos have scored 91 (v Lefkadas, Oct 3) and 77 (v Craiova, Oct 7) in their two home games this season, but conceded 99 in Piraeus on Oct 11.
- PAOK have averaged 86.9 points across seven games this season (Sep 26-Oct 13), including 88 at Mykonos on Oct 3, and have scored 86 or more in five of them.
- Across 15 tracked box scores PAOK shoot 61.4% on two-pointers (309/503) versus Kolossos 54.0% (302/559), with PAOK also ahead on rebounds (31.3 v 28.9) and turnovers (12.1 v 13.0).
- PAOK won both 2025-26 league meetings, 82-70 at home on Dec 6 and 90-78 in Rhodes on Feb 7, though those rosters differed.
- Kolossos have allowed 78.4 points per game over their last five outings (Sep 15-Oct 13), while PAOK's two Basket League games have come against Lefkadas and Mykonos.
- Both teams played European road games on Oct 13 and have roughly four days' rest before tipping off in Rhodes.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostPAOK +1.5Estimated chance63.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kolossos Rhodes 81.8, PAOK 86.5. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Kolossos have scored 91 (v Lefkadas, Oct 3) and 77 (v Craiova, Oct 7) in their two home games this season, but conceded 99 in Piraeus on Oct 11.
- PAOK have averaged 86.9 points across seven games this season (Sep 26-Oct 13), including 88 at Mykonos on Oct 3, and have scored 86 or more in five of them.
- Across 15 tracked box scores PAOK shoot 61.4% on two-pointers (309/503) versus Kolossos 54.0% (302/559), with PAOK also ahead on rebounds (31.3 v 28.9) and turnovers (12.1 v 13.0).
- PAOK won both 2025-26 league meetings, 82-70 at home on Dec 6 and 90-78 in Rhodes on Feb 7, though those rosters differed.
- Kolossos have allowed 78.4 points per game over their last five outings (Sep 15-Oct 13), while PAOK's two Basket League games have come against Lefkadas and Mykonos.
- Both teams played European road games on Oct 13 and have roughly four days' rest before tipping off in Rhodes.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonPAOKEstimated chance62.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kolossos Rhodes 81.8, PAOK 86.5. PAOK cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Kolossos Rhodes and 15 for PAOK, across seasons and competitions.
- Kolossos have scored 91 (v Lefkadas, Oct 3) and 77 (v Craiova, Oct 7) in their two home games this season, but conceded 99 in Piraeus on Oct 11.
- PAOK have averaged 86.9 points across seven games this season (Sep 26-Oct 13), including 88 at Mykonos on Oct 3, and have scored 86 or more in five of them.
- Across 15 tracked box scores PAOK shoot 61.4% on two-pointers (309/503) versus Kolossos 54.0% (302/559), with PAOK also ahead on rebounds (31.3 v 28.9) and turnovers (12.1 v 13.0).
- PAOK won both 2025-26 league meetings, 82-70 at home on Dec 6 and 90-78 in Rhodes on Feb 7, though those rosters differed.
- Kolossos have allowed 78.4 points per game over their last five outings (Sep 15-Oct 13), while PAOK's two Basket League games have come against Lefkadas and Mykonos.
- Both teams played European road games on Oct 13 and have roughly four days' rest before tipping off in Rhodes.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonPAOK +0.5Estimated chance60.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kolossos Rhodes 81.8, PAOK 86.5. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Kolossos have scored 91 (v Lefkadas, Oct 3) and 77 (v Craiova, Oct 7) in their two home games this season, but conceded 99 in Piraeus on Oct 11.
- PAOK have averaged 86.9 points across seven games this season (Sep 26-Oct 13), including 88 at Mykonos on Oct 3, and have scored 86 or more in five of them.
- Across 15 tracked box scores PAOK shoot 61.4% on two-pointers (309/503) versus Kolossos 54.0% (302/559), with PAOK also ahead on rebounds (31.3 v 28.9) and turnovers (12.1 v 13.0).
- PAOK won both 2025-26 league meetings, 82-70 at home on Dec 6 and 90-78 in Rhodes on Feb 7, though those rosters differed.
- Kolossos have allowed 78.4 points per game over their last five outings (Sep 15-Oct 13), while PAOK's two Basket League games have come against Lefkadas and Mykonos.
- Both teams played European road games on Oct 13 and have roughly four days' rest before tipping off in Rhodes.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostPAOKEstimated chance58.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kolossos Rhodes 81.8, PAOK 86.5. Kolossos Rhodes cover +7.5 (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Kolossos have scored 91 (v Lefkadas, Oct 3) and 77 (v Craiova, Oct 7) in their two home games this season, but conceded 99 in Piraeus on Oct 11.
- PAOK have averaged 86.9 points across seven games this season (Sep 26-Oct 13), including 88 at Mykonos on Oct 3, and have scored 86 or more in five of them.
- Across 15 tracked box scores PAOK shoot 61.4% on two-pointers (309/503) versus Kolossos 54.0% (302/559), with PAOK also ahead on rebounds (31.3 v 28.9) and turnovers (12.1 v 13.0).
- PAOK won both 2025-26 league meetings, 82-70 at home on Dec 6 and 90-78 in Rhodes on Feb 7, though those rosters differed.
- Kolossos have allowed 78.4 points per game over their last five outings (Sep 15-Oct 13), while PAOK's two Basket League games have come against Lefkadas and Mykonos.
- Both teams played European road games on Oct 13 and have roughly four days' rest before tipping off in Rhodes.
BetBugs · HandicapwonKolossos Rhodes +7.5Estimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kolossos Rhodes 81.8, PAOK 86.5. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Kolossos have scored 91 (v Lefkadas, Oct 3) and 77 (v Craiova, Oct 7) in their two home games this season, but conceded 99 in Piraeus on Oct 11.
- PAOK have averaged 86.9 points across seven games this season (Sep 26-Oct 13), including 88 at Mykonos on Oct 3, and have scored 86 or more in five of them.
- Across 15 tracked box scores PAOK shoot 61.4% on two-pointers (309/503) versus Kolossos 54.0% (302/559), with PAOK also ahead on rebounds (31.3 v 28.9) and turnovers (12.1 v 13.0).
- PAOK won both 2025-26 league meetings, 82-70 at home on Dec 6 and 90-78 in Rhodes on Feb 7, though those rosters differed.
- Kolossos have allowed 78.4 points per game over their last five outings (Sep 15-Oct 13), while PAOK's two Basket League games have come against Lefkadas and Mykonos.
- Both teams played European road games on Oct 13 and have roughly four days' rest before tipping off in Rhodes.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonPAOKEstimated chance55.3%

Points1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kolossos Rhodes 81.8, PAOK 86.5. PAOK score fewer than 44.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Kolossos have scored 91 (v Lefkadas, Oct 3) and 77 (v Craiova, Oct 7) in their two home games this season, but conceded 99 in Piraeus on Oct 11.
- PAOK have averaged 86.9 points across seven games this season (Sep 26-Oct 13), including 88 at Mykonos on Oct 3, and have scored 86 or more in five of them.
- Across 15 tracked box scores PAOK shoot 61.4% on two-pointers (309/503) versus Kolossos 54.0% (302/559), with PAOK also ahead on rebounds (31.3 v 28.9) and turnovers (12.1 v 13.0).
- PAOK won both 2025-26 league meetings, 82-70 at home on Dec 6 and 90-78 in Rhodes on Feb 7, though those rosters differed.
- Kolossos have allowed 78.4 points per game over their last five outings (Sep 15-Oct 13), while PAOK's two Basket League games have come against Lefkadas and Mykonos.
- Both teams played European road games on Oct 13 and have roughly four days' rest before tipping off in Rhodes.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostPAOK under 44.5Estimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Kolossos Rhodes 81.8, PAOK 86.5. PAOK score fewer than 88.5 points (overtime included) in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Kolossos have scored 91 (v Lefkadas, Oct 3) and 77 (v Craiova, Oct 7) in their two home games this season, but conceded 99 in Piraeus on Oct 11.
- PAOK have averaged 86.9 points across seven games this season (Sep 26-Oct 13), including 88 at Mykonos on Oct 3, and have scored 86 or more in five of them.
- Across 15 tracked box scores PAOK shoot 61.4% on two-pointers (309/503) versus Kolossos 54.0% (302/559), with PAOK also ahead on rebounds (31.3 v 28.9) and turnovers (12.1 v 13.0).
- PAOK won both 2025-26 league meetings, 82-70 at home on Dec 6 and 90-78 in Rhodes on Feb 7, though those rosters differed.
- Kolossos have allowed 78.4 points per game over their last five outings (Sep 15-Oct 13), while PAOK's two Basket League games have come against Lefkadas and Mykonos.
- Both teams played European road games on Oct 13 and have roughly four days' rest before tipping off in Rhodes.
BetBugs · Team PointswonPAOK under 88.5Estimated chance55.3%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 17, 02:24

Selected line

169.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

49%

Chance of 170+ points

3 pp below break-even

Over 1.92 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 49%.

Move the line main 169.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L78–90

Kolossos Rhodesv PAOK

PAOK

Feb 7, 2026·BAS

L82–70

PAOKv

Kolossos Rhodes

Dec 6, 2025·BAS

W84–83

Kolossos Rhodesv PAOK

PAOK

Mar 23, 2025·BAS

L94–70

PAOKv

Kolossos Rhodes

Dec 15, 2024·BAS

W95–79

Kolossos Rhodesv PAOK

PAOK

Mar 10, 2024·BAS

L93–81

PAOKv

Kolossos Rhodes

Dec 4, 2023·BAS

L89–82

PAOKv

Kolossos Rhodes

Feb 11, 2023·BAS

W80–76

Kolossos Rhodesv PAOK

PAOK

Nov 5, 2022·BAS

W69–60

Kolossos Rhodesv PAOK

PAOK

May 7, 2022·BAS

L86–80

PAOKv

Kolossos Rhodes

Jan 15, 2022·BAS

162.1Avg total points

10.3Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Basket League · Basket League - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Kolossos Rhodes

1–150%

PAOK

2–0100%

Recent Form

Kolossos Rhodes

7W 8L · last 15

at Gence80–62 Oct 13FIB

at Olympiacos83–99 Oct 11BAS

vs SCM Craiova77–65 Oct 7FIB

vs Lefkadas91–75 Oct 3BAS

at Korfez Basket79–91 Sep 15CL

vs Olympiacos58–97 May 16BAS

at Olympiacos76–117 May 13BAS

vs AS Karditsas91–80 Apr 25BAS

at Maroussi93–108 Apr 18BAS

at Peristeri83–87 Apr 4BAS

vs Aris92–96 Mar 28BAS

at Promitheas98–76 Mar 21BAS

vs Iraklis98–85 Mar 15BAS

at Panathinaikos102–97 Feb 15BAS

vs PAOK78–90 Feb 7BAS

PAOK

10W 5L · last 15

at Lietkabelis86–95 Oct 13EUR

vs Lefkadas86–73 Oct 10BAS

at KK Bosna75–72 Oct 6EUR

at Mykonos88–85 Oct 3BAS

vs Manresa93–78 Sep 30EUR

at Olympiacos96–101 Sep 27SUP

at Panathinaikos84–82 Sep 26SUP

vs Panathinaikos94–102 May 30BAS

at Panathinaikos102–114 OTMay 28BAS

at Peristeri77–72 May 6BAS

vs Peristeri91–79 May 3BAS

at Bilbao74–89 Apr 29FIB

vs Maroussi101–85 Apr 25BAS

vs Bilbao79–73 Apr 22FIB

at Iraklis76–72 Apr 18BAS

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Kolossos Rhodes

Stats

1–4

PAOK

PAOK leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+7.4pp

54.0%

+7.4pp

61.4%

3-point %+4.5pp

37.7%

+4.5pp

33.2%

Free-throw %15/13 games+3.0pp

72.6%

+3.0pp

75.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.3pp apart

35.0%

0.3pp apart

34.7%

Free throws per shot15/13 games2.0pp apart

32.5%

2.0pp apart

30.5%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+2.4

28.9

+2.4

31.3

Turnovers per game0.9 fewer

13.0

0.9 fewer

12.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.