Basket LeagueFinished

Predictions graded

Aris74Maroussi57

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–189%

Points by period: Aris and Maroussi.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Aris	15	22	23	14
Maroussi	13	15	15	14

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Aris carry a three-game winning run into a game against a Maroussi side still chasing a first league win after letting a 15-point lead slip on 10 October.

Aris should win, though Stefan Jovic is expected to be missing at point guard and the hosts are playing a third game in eight days. With Aris a heavy favourite, no price stands out at our numbers.

Context

Aris are expected to be without Stefan Jovic at point guard while playing a third game in eight days, against a Maroussi side that has had a week's rest but has lost both league games and surrendered a 15-point lead on 10 October.

Jovic has been unavailable through the opening weeks, and the 9 October session was only a partial step back before Aris ruled him out of this fixture. Nenad Dimitrijevic, Vasileios Toliopoulos and Elijah Mitrou-Long share the ball-handling, so the absence leaves Aris without a specialist point guard in the middle of a three-games-in-eight-days stretch and puts more creation on the guards who are available. No return date has been given, so Jovic is expected to stay out beyond this game.
- Aris were reported to be without Stefan Jovic for the 17 October league game against Maroussi.
- Jovic completed only part of a training session on 9 October, working alongside Stylianos Poulianitis.
The 15-point cushion against Mykonos disappeared as Appleby took over, leaving a rebuilt Maroussi squad still chasing a first league win after the opening 91-70 defeat at AEK. Late-game execution and guard defence are the pressure points, and Aris, on a three-game winning run, are a hard opponent for a team still finding its closing five. Maroussi have had a full week between games while Aris played on 14 October, so the main question is whether the visitors can hold a tight fourth quarter in Thessaloniki.
- Maroussi lost 91-70 at AEK Athens in their league opener on 3 October.
- Maroussi led Mykonos by 15 points at home on 10 October but lost 79-82.
- Tyree Appleby scored 23 points for Mykonos in that comeback.
Aris have settled quickly under coach Vassilis Spanoulis, with three EuroCup wins from three after the 88-68 defeat of Tortona and an 88-58 league win over AEK Athens four days earlier. This is their third game in eight days, so how Spanoulis manages minutes matters as much as form. Maroussi arrive winless, which makes the fixture a chance to add a second league win, but the compressed schedule leaves room for rotation changes and a slower start than the recent scores suggest.
- Aris beat Baglietto Derthona Tortona 88-68 on 14 October for a third straight BKT EuroCup win.
- Aris beat AEK Athens 88-58 in the league on 10 October.
- Aris published a preview on 16 October framing the Maroussi game as a bid for a second consecutive league win.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result8 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 90.5, Maroussi 74.4. Aris win in about 90 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Aris scored 88, 88 and 93 in their three home games this season (7–14 October), winning all three.
- Maroussi lost 70-91 at AEK Athens on 3 October and 79-82 at home to Mykonos on 10 October, conceding 86.5 points per league game.
- Aris are shooting 51.8% on two-pointers over 15 tracked games and allowed 70.8 points per game across their last five.
- Maroussi average 31.3 rebounds over 12 tracked games, compared with Aris's 34.6 over 15.
- Aris beat Maroussi 102-76 in Thessaloniki on 7 March 2026, while Maroussi won the Greek Cup meeting 87-80 on 17 February 2026.
- Maroussi have had seven days since their last game on 10 October; Aris last played on 14 October, their third game in eight days.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArisEstimated chance89.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 90.5, Maroussi 74.4. Aris are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 89 of 100 games like this.
- Aris scored 88, 88 and 93 in their three home games this season (7–14 October), winning all three.
- Maroussi lost 70-91 at AEK Athens on 3 October and 79-82 at home to Mykonos on 10 October, conceding 86.5 points per league game.
- Aris are shooting 51.8% on two-pointers over 15 tracked games and allowed 70.8 points per game across their last five.
- Maroussi average 31.3 rebounds over 12 tracked games, compared with Aris's 34.6 over 15.
- Aris beat Maroussi 102-76 in Thessaloniki on 7 March 2026, while Maroussi won the Greek Cup meeting 87-80 on 17 February 2026.
- Maroussi have had seven days since their last game on 10 October; Aris last played on 14 October, their third game in eight days.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonArisEstimated chance88.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 90.5, Maroussi 74.4. Aris are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 81 of 100 games like this.
- Aris scored 88, 88 and 93 in their three home games this season (7–14 October), winning all three.
- Maroussi lost 70-91 at AEK Athens on 3 October and 79-82 at home to Mykonos on 10 October, conceding 86.5 points per league game.
- Aris are shooting 51.8% on two-pointers over 15 tracked games and allowed 70.8 points per game across their last five.
- Maroussi average 31.3 rebounds over 12 tracked games, compared with Aris's 34.6 over 15.
- Aris beat Maroussi 102-76 in Thessaloniki on 7 March 2026, while Maroussi won the Greek Cup meeting 87-80 on 17 February 2026.
- Maroussi have had seven days since their last game on 10 October; Aris last played on 14 October, their third game in eight days.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonArisEstimated chance80.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 90.5, Maroussi 74.4. Aris are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this.
- Aris scored 88, 88 and 93 in their three home games this season (7–14 October), winning all three.
- Maroussi lost 70-91 at AEK Athens on 3 October and 79-82 at home to Mykonos on 10 October, conceding 86.5 points per league game.
- Aris are shooting 51.8% on two-pointers over 15 tracked games and allowed 70.8 points per game across their last five.
- Maroussi average 31.3 rebounds over 12 tracked games, compared with Aris's 34.6 over 15.
- Aris beat Maroussi 102-76 in Thessaloniki on 7 March 2026, while Maroussi won the Greek Cup meeting 87-80 on 17 February 2026.
- Maroussi have had seven days since their last game on 10 October; Aris last played on 14 October, their third game in eight days.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonArisEstimated chance73.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 90.5, Maroussi 74.4. Aris cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Aris and 15 for Maroussi, across seasons and competitions.
- Aris scored 88, 88 and 93 in their three home games this season (7–14 October), winning all three.
- Maroussi lost 70-91 at AEK Athens on 3 October and 79-82 at home to Mykonos on 10 October, conceding 86.5 points per league game.
- Aris are shooting 51.8% on two-pointers over 15 tracked games and allowed 70.8 points per game across their last five.
- Maroussi average 31.3 rebounds over 12 tracked games, compared with Aris's 34.6 over 15.
- Aris beat Maroussi 102-76 in Thessaloniki on 7 March 2026, while Maroussi won the Greek Cup meeting 87-80 on 17 February 2026.
- Maroussi have had seven days since their last game on 10 October; Aris last played on 14 October, their third game in eight days.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonAris -0.5Estimated chance73.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 90.5, Maroussi 74.4. Aris are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Aris scored 88, 88 and 93 in their three home games this season (7–14 October), winning all three.
- Maroussi lost 70-91 at AEK Athens on 3 October and 79-82 at home to Mykonos on 10 October, conceding 86.5 points per league game.
- Aris are shooting 51.8% on two-pointers over 15 tracked games and allowed 70.8 points per game across their last five.
- Maroussi average 31.3 rebounds over 12 tracked games, compared with Aris's 34.6 over 15.
- Aris beat Maroussi 102-76 in Thessaloniki on 7 March 2026, while Maroussi won the Greek Cup meeting 87-80 on 17 February 2026.
- Maroussi have had seven days since their last game on 10 October; Aris last played on 14 October, their third game in eight days.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonArisEstimated chance68.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 90.5, Maroussi 74.4. Aris are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Aris scored 88, 88 and 93 in their three home games this season (7–14 October), winning all three.
- Maroussi lost 70-91 at AEK Athens on 3 October and 79-82 at home to Mykonos on 10 October, conceding 86.5 points per league game.
- Aris are shooting 51.8% on two-pointers over 15 tracked games and allowed 70.8 points per game across their last five.
- Maroussi average 31.3 rebounds over 12 tracked games, compared with Aris's 34.6 over 15.
- Aris beat Maroussi 102-76 in Thessaloniki on 7 March 2026, while Maroussi won the Greek Cup meeting 87-80 on 17 February 2026.
- Maroussi have had seven days since their last game on 10 October; Aris last played on 14 October, their third game in eight days.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonArisEstimated chance65.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 90.5, Maroussi 74.4. Aris cover -2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Aris and 15 for Maroussi, across seasons and competitions.
- Aris scored 88, 88 and 93 in their three home games this season (7–14 October), winning all three.
- Maroussi lost 70-91 at AEK Athens on 3 October and 79-82 at home to Mykonos on 10 October, conceding 86.5 points per league game.
- Aris are shooting 51.8% on two-pointers over 15 tracked games and allowed 70.8 points per game across their last five.
- Maroussi average 31.3 rebounds over 12 tracked games, compared with Aris's 34.6 over 15.
- Aris beat Maroussi 102-76 in Thessaloniki on 7 March 2026, while Maroussi won the Greek Cup meeting 87-80 on 17 February 2026.
- Maroussi have had seven days since their last game on 10 October; Aris last played on 14 October, their third game in eight days.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonAris -2.5Estimated chance55.2%

Points0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 90.5, Maroussi 74.4. Aris score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Aris scored 88, 88 and 93 in their three home games this season (7–14 October), winning all three.
- Maroussi lost 70-91 at AEK Athens on 3 October and 79-82 at home to Mykonos on 10 October, conceding 86.5 points per league game.
- Aris are shooting 51.8% on two-pointers over 15 tracked games and allowed 70.8 points per game across their last five.
- Maroussi average 31.3 rebounds over 12 tracked games, compared with Aris's 34.6 over 15.
- Aris beat Maroussi 102-76 in Thessaloniki on 7 March 2026, while Maroussi won the Greek Cup meeting 87-80 on 17 February 2026.
- Maroussi have had seven days since their last game on 10 October; Aris last played on 14 October, their third game in eight days.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostAris over 22.5Estimated chance55.7%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 17, 02:24

Selected line

166.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

47%

Chance of 167+ points

4 pp below break-even

Over 1.96 needs 51% to break even. BetBugs sees 47%.

Move the line main 166.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 47%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 53%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W102–76

Arisv

Maroussi

Mar 7, 2026·BAS

L87–80

Maroussiv

Aris

Feb 17, 2026·GRE

L108–103

Maroussiv

Aris

Oct 18, 2025·BASOT

W114–109

Arisv

Maroussi

May 17, 2025·BASOT

L91–68

Maroussiv

Aris

Apr 26, 2025·BAS

W73–78

Maroussiv

Aris

Feb 1, 2025·BAS

L72–74

Arisv

Maroussi

Nov 9, 2024·BAS

L67–73

Arisv

Maroussi

Mar 10, 2024·BAS

W84–89

Maroussiv

Aris

Dec 3, 2023·BAS

W69–90

Maroussiv

Aris

Mar 17, 2012·A1

170.7Avg total points

10.5Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Basket League · Basket League - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Aris

1–150%

Maroussi

0–20%

Recent Form

Aris

9W 6L · last 15

vs Tortona88–68 Oct 14EUR

vs AEK Athens88–58 Oct 10BAS

vs San Pablo Burgos93–80 Oct 7EUR

at AS Karditsas68–74 Oct 3BAS

at Le Mans87–74 Sep 29EUR

at AEK Athens99–102 May 25BAS

vs AEK Athens90–81 May 17BAS

at AEK Athens81–87 May 14BAS

vs Panionios75–65 Apr 25BAS

at Peristeri75–78 Apr 22BAS

at Olympiacos81–92 Apr 19BAS

at PAOK77–88 Apr 15BAS

vs AEK Athens82–78 Apr 4BAS

at Kolossos Rhodes96–92 Mar 28BAS

vs AS Karditsas78–55 Mar 21BAS

Maroussi

5W 10L · last 15

vs Mykonos79–82 Oct 10BAS

at AEK Athens70–91 Oct 3BAS

at PAOK85–101 Apr 25BAS

vs Kolossos Rhodes108–93 Apr 18BAS

at Iraklis91–72 Mar 29BAS

vs Mykonos94–103 Mar 21BAS

vs Peristeri61–84 Mar 14BAS

at Aris76–102 Mar 7BAS

vs Olympiacos67–91 Feb 19GRE

vs Aris87–80 Feb 17GRE

vs AS Karditsas78–77 Feb 14BAS

at AEK Athens74–83 Feb 7BAS

at Promitheas100–92 Feb 4GRE

vs Panionios97–105 Feb 1BAS

at Panathinaikos81–92 Jan 25BAS

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Aris

Stats

2–3

Maroussi

12 games

Maroussi leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+1.3pp

51.8%

+1.3pp

53.1%

3-point %+0.8pp

34.5%

+0.8pp

33.7%

Free-throw %13/12 games+5.0pp

74.6%

+5.0pp

79.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.0pp apart

34.9%

2.0pp apart

32.9%

Free throws per shot13/12 games1.3pp apart

33.1%

1.3pp apart

34.4%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+3.3

34.6

+3.3

31.3

Turnovers per game0.4 fewer

13.7

0.4 fewer

13.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.