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Predictions graded

Zalgiris Kaunas70Anadolu Efes85

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–722%

Points by period: Zalgiris Kaunas and Anadolu Efes.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Zalgiris Kaunas	12	24	20	14
Anadolu Efes	21	21	25	18

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Zalgiris Kaunas host Anadolu Efes with Efes missing James Mike for months and arriving on three straight EuroLeague defeats.

One expected score of 86.8-80.0 after 40 minutes points to Zalgiris winning, about 70 times in 100 games like this. The home side is the likely winner, but no quoted price stands out at our numbers.

Context

James Mike's confirmed seven-to-nine-month absence removes Efes's main creator, and Efes also arrive with about two days since their 14 October loss to Bayern in the same double week.

Mike James, the EuroLeague's all-time leading scorer, joined Anadolu Efes in the summer and was their main ball-handler and shot creator before he fell without contact in the 1 October game at Crvena Zvezda. The club announced surgery on his Achilles and a recovery of seven to nine months, which is expected to end his 2026-27 season. Coach Pablo Laso said on 9 October that the team must accept James will not return this season. Efes have since leaned on Cameron Payne, Matthew Strazel and Dario Saric, with Strazel struggling at point guard in the 14 October loss to Bayern. James's absence is the central reason Efes arrive in Kaunas on a 1-4 record, and no replacement has been announced.
- Anadolu Efes announced that Mike James was operated on his Achilles after he fell without contact in the 1 October game at Crvena Zvezda.
- The club's medical staff estimated a recovery of seven to nine months, which would rule him out for most or all of the 2026-27 season.
- Pablo Laso said on 9 October that the club must accept James will not return this season.
Nigel Williams-Goss was signed to run Zalgiris's offence and link their scoring guards with Jonas Valanciunas. He injured a hamstring in the round-one win at Crvena Zvezda and the club announced on 25 September that he would miss around two weeks. On 12 October, coach Tomas Masiulis confirmed Williams-Goss would not travel for the EuroLeague game at Fenerbahce. Carsen Edwards, Saben Lee and Maodo Lo have covered the ball-handling since. Zalgiris have not issued an update on whether Williams-Goss will return for the visit of Efes, so his availability remains unresolved.
- Zalgiris announced on 25 September that Nigel Williams-Goss would miss around two weeks with a hamstring injury suffered in the round-one win at Crvena Zvezda.
- Coach Tomas Masiulis confirmed on 12 October that the guard would not travel to the EuroLeague game at Fenerbahce.
- Williams-Goss is the squad's main pass-first playmaker, with Carsen Edwards and Saben Lee used more as scoring guards.
Efes have not won a EuroLeague game since beating Real Madrid on 29 September. Their 14 October home defeat to Bayern Munich followed a 23-point loss at Olympiacos and a five-point loss at Crvena Zvezda. Coach Pablo Laso criticised the team's mental preparation after the Bayern game, saying they must improve quickly because another game follows in 48 hours. The slide has dropped Efes near the bottom of the standings and increased pressure on Laso. Efes must now win in Kaunas to steady a season already disrupted by Mike James's injury.
- Anadolu Efes lost 93-101 at home to Bayern Munich on 14 October, their third straight EuroLeague defeat.
- They also lost 66-89 at Olympiacos on 9 October and 72-77 at Crvena Zvezda on 1 October.
- Their only EuroLeague win was 94-84 at home to Real Madrid on 29 September.
Zalgiris showed their ceiling in Barcelona, where they trailed 65-55 after three quarters and won the final period 33-16 to take the game 88-81. They also beat Crvena Zvezda in round one but lost narrowly at home to Olympiacos and away to Paris before a heavy 80-99 defeat at Fenerbahce on 13 October. The mixed start reflects a rebuilt roster still finding its hierarchy. At home against Efes they will look to control tempo, but the absence of primary playmaker Nigel Williams-Goss leaves much of the creation load on Carsen Edwards and Maodo Lo.
- Zalgiris trailed 65-55 after three quarters at Barcelona on 9 October but won the final quarter 33-16 to take the game 88-81.
- They lost 80-99 at Fenerbahce on 13 October, after earlier EuroLeague defeats to Olympiacos at home and Paris on the road.
- An 83-77 win at Crvena Zvezda opened their EuroLeague season.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Zalgiris Kaunas 86.8, Anadolu Efes 80.0. Zalgiris Kaunas cover +4.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 79 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Zalgiris Kaunas and 15 for Anadolu Efes, across seasons and competitions.
- EuroLeague standings through 5 rounds (15 Oct): Zalgiris are 2-3 with 84.0 points for and 86.4 against per game; Efes are 1-4 with 81.4 for and 88.0 against.
- Efes have lost three straight EuroLeague games: 66-89 at Olympiacos (9 Oct), 72-77 at Crvena Zvezda (1 Oct) and 93-101 at home to Bayern (14 Oct).
- In tracked box scores Efes shoot 29.4% from three (89/303) against Zalgiris's 40.3% (144/357), though Zalgiris's figure is lifted by LKL games.
- Zalgiris average 33.8 rebounds and 13.2 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Efes average 30.8 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 12.
- Mike James, Efes's lead ball-handler, is confirmed out 7-9 months after Achilles surgery (club announcement 3 Oct, Laso 9 Oct) and has not appeared since 1 Oct; Williams-Goss has been absent for Zalgiris but is a reported, not confirmed, absence.
- Rest: Zalgiris 2.97 days since their 13 Oct game at Fenerbahce, Efes 1.98 days since their 14 Oct home loss to Bayern.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostZalgiris Kaunas +4.5Estimated chance79.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Zalgiris Kaunas 86.8, Anadolu Efes 80.0. Zalgiris Kaunas win in about 70 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- EuroLeague standings through 5 rounds (15 Oct): Zalgiris are 2-3 with 84.0 points for and 86.4 against per game; Efes are 1-4 with 81.4 for and 88.0 against.
- Efes have lost three straight EuroLeague games: 66-89 at Olympiacos (9 Oct), 72-77 at Crvena Zvezda (1 Oct) and 93-101 at home to Bayern (14 Oct).
- In tracked box scores Efes shoot 29.4% from three (89/303) against Zalgiris's 40.3% (144/357), though Zalgiris's figure is lifted by LKL games.
- Zalgiris average 33.8 rebounds and 13.2 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Efes average 30.8 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 12.
- Mike James, Efes's lead ball-handler, is confirmed out 7-9 months after Achilles surgery (club announcement 3 Oct, Laso 9 Oct) and has not appeared since 1 Oct; Williams-Goss has been absent for Zalgiris but is a reported, not confirmed, absence.
- Rest: Zalgiris 2.97 days since their 13 Oct game at Fenerbahce, Efes 1.98 days since their 14 Oct home loss to Bayern.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostZalgiris KaunasEstimated chance70.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Zalgiris Kaunas 86.8, Anadolu Efes 80.0. Zalgiris Kaunas are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- EuroLeague standings through 5 rounds (15 Oct): Zalgiris are 2-3 with 84.0 points for and 86.4 against per game; Efes are 1-4 with 81.4 for and 88.0 against.
- Efes have lost three straight EuroLeague games: 66-89 at Olympiacos (9 Oct), 72-77 at Crvena Zvezda (1 Oct) and 93-101 at home to Bayern (14 Oct).
- In tracked box scores Efes shoot 29.4% from three (89/303) against Zalgiris's 40.3% (144/357), though Zalgiris's figure is lifted by LKL games.
- Zalgiris average 33.8 rebounds and 13.2 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Efes average 30.8 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 12.
- Mike James, Efes's lead ball-handler, is confirmed out 7-9 months after Achilles surgery (club announcement 3 Oct, Laso 9 Oct) and has not appeared since 1 Oct; Williams-Goss has been absent for Zalgiris but is a reported, not confirmed, absence.
- Rest: Zalgiris 2.97 days since their 13 Oct game at Fenerbahce, Efes 1.98 days since their 14 Oct home loss to Bayern.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostZalgiris KaunasEstimated chance68.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Zalgiris Kaunas 86.8, Anadolu Efes 80.0. Zalgiris Kaunas are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- EuroLeague standings through 5 rounds (15 Oct): Zalgiris are 2-3 with 84.0 points for and 86.4 against per game; Efes are 1-4 with 81.4 for and 88.0 against.
- Efes have lost three straight EuroLeague games: 66-89 at Olympiacos (9 Oct), 72-77 at Crvena Zvezda (1 Oct) and 93-101 at home to Bayern (14 Oct).
- In tracked box scores Efes shoot 29.4% from three (89/303) against Zalgiris's 40.3% (144/357), though Zalgiris's figure is lifted by LKL games.
- Zalgiris average 33.8 rebounds and 13.2 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Efes average 30.8 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 12.
- Mike James, Efes's lead ball-handler, is confirmed out 7-9 months after Achilles surgery (club announcement 3 Oct, Laso 9 Oct) and has not appeared since 1 Oct; Williams-Goss has been absent for Zalgiris but is a reported, not confirmed, absence.
- Rest: Zalgiris 2.97 days since their 13 Oct game at Fenerbahce, Efes 1.98 days since their 14 Oct home loss to Bayern.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostZalgiris KaunasEstimated chance63.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Zalgiris Kaunas 86.8, Anadolu Efes 80.0. Anadolu Efes cover +4.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Zalgiris Kaunas and 15 for Anadolu Efes, across seasons and competitions.
- EuroLeague standings through 5 rounds (15 Oct): Zalgiris are 2-3 with 84.0 points for and 86.4 against per game; Efes are 1-4 with 81.4 for and 88.0 against.
- Efes have lost three straight EuroLeague games: 66-89 at Olympiacos (9 Oct), 72-77 at Crvena Zvezda (1 Oct) and 93-101 at home to Bayern (14 Oct).
- In tracked box scores Efes shoot 29.4% from three (89/303) against Zalgiris's 40.3% (144/357), though Zalgiris's figure is lifted by LKL games.
- Zalgiris average 33.8 rebounds and 13.2 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Efes average 30.8 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 12.
- Mike James, Efes's lead ball-handler, is confirmed out 7-9 months after Achilles surgery (club announcement 3 Oct, Laso 9 Oct) and has not appeared since 1 Oct; Williams-Goss has been absent for Zalgiris but is a reported, not confirmed, absence.
- Rest: Zalgiris 2.97 days since their 13 Oct game at Fenerbahce, Efes 1.98 days since their 14 Oct home loss to Bayern.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonAnadolu Efes +4.5Estimated chance62.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Zalgiris Kaunas 86.8, Anadolu Efes 80.0. Zalgiris Kaunas are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- EuroLeague standings through 5 rounds (15 Oct): Zalgiris are 2-3 with 84.0 points for and 86.4 against per game; Efes are 1-4 with 81.4 for and 88.0 against.
- Efes have lost three straight EuroLeague games: 66-89 at Olympiacos (9 Oct), 72-77 at Crvena Zvezda (1 Oct) and 93-101 at home to Bayern (14 Oct).
- In tracked box scores Efes shoot 29.4% from three (89/303) against Zalgiris's 40.3% (144/357), though Zalgiris's figure is lifted by LKL games.
- Zalgiris average 33.8 rebounds and 13.2 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Efes average 30.8 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 12.
- Mike James, Efes's lead ball-handler, is confirmed out 7-9 months after Achilles surgery (club announcement 3 Oct, Laso 9 Oct) and has not appeared since 1 Oct; Williams-Goss has been absent for Zalgiris but is a reported, not confirmed, absence.
- Rest: Zalgiris 2.97 days since their 13 Oct game at Fenerbahce, Efes 1.98 days since their 14 Oct home loss to Bayern.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonZalgiris KaunasEstimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Zalgiris Kaunas 86.8, Anadolu Efes 80.0. Zalgiris Kaunas are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- EuroLeague standings through 5 rounds (15 Oct): Zalgiris are 2-3 with 84.0 points for and 86.4 against per game; Efes are 1-4 with 81.4 for and 88.0 against.
- Efes have lost three straight EuroLeague games: 66-89 at Olympiacos (9 Oct), 72-77 at Crvena Zvezda (1 Oct) and 93-101 at home to Bayern (14 Oct).
- In tracked box scores Efes shoot 29.4% from three (89/303) against Zalgiris's 40.3% (144/357), though Zalgiris's figure is lifted by LKL games.
- Zalgiris average 33.8 rebounds and 13.2 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Efes average 30.8 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 12.
- Mike James, Efes's lead ball-handler, is confirmed out 7-9 months after Achilles surgery (club announcement 3 Oct, Laso 9 Oct) and has not appeared since 1 Oct; Williams-Goss has been absent for Zalgiris but is a reported, not confirmed, absence.
- Rest: Zalgiris 2.97 days since their 13 Oct game at Fenerbahce, Efes 1.98 days since their 14 Oct home loss to Bayern.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostZalgiris KaunasEstimated chance56.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Zalgiris Kaunas 86.8, Anadolu Efes 80.0. Zalgiris Kaunas are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- EuroLeague standings through 5 rounds (15 Oct): Zalgiris are 2-3 with 84.0 points for and 86.4 against per game; Efes are 1-4 with 81.4 for and 88.0 against.
- Efes have lost three straight EuroLeague games: 66-89 at Olympiacos (9 Oct), 72-77 at Crvena Zvezda (1 Oct) and 93-101 at home to Bayern (14 Oct).
- In tracked box scores Efes shoot 29.4% from three (89/303) against Zalgiris's 40.3% (144/357), though Zalgiris's figure is lifted by LKL games.
- Zalgiris average 33.8 rebounds and 13.2 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Efes average 30.8 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 12.
- Mike James, Efes's lead ball-handler, is confirmed out 7-9 months after Achilles surgery (club announcement 3 Oct, Laso 9 Oct) and has not appeared since 1 Oct; Williams-Goss has been absent for Zalgiris but is a reported, not confirmed, absence.
- Rest: Zalgiris 2.97 days since their 13 Oct game at Fenerbahce, Efes 1.98 days since their 14 Oct home loss to Bayern.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostZalgiris KaunasEstimated chance55.2%

Points0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Zalgiris Kaunas 86.8, Anadolu Efes 80.0. Zalgiris Kaunas score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- EuroLeague standings through 5 rounds (15 Oct): Zalgiris are 2-3 with 84.0 points for and 86.4 against per game; Efes are 1-4 with 81.4 for and 88.0 against.
- Efes have lost three straight EuroLeague games: 66-89 at Olympiacos (9 Oct), 72-77 at Crvena Zvezda (1 Oct) and 93-101 at home to Bayern (14 Oct).
- In tracked box scores Efes shoot 29.4% from three (89/303) against Zalgiris's 40.3% (144/357), though Zalgiris's figure is lifted by LKL games.
- Zalgiris average 33.8 rebounds and 13.2 turnovers in 15 tracked games; Efes average 30.8 rebounds and 13.3 turnovers in 12.
- Mike James, Efes's lead ball-handler, is confirmed out 7-9 months after Achilles surgery (club announcement 3 Oct, Laso 9 Oct) and has not appeared since 1 Oct; Williams-Goss has been absent for Zalgiris but is a reported, not confirmed, absence.
- Rest: Zalgiris 2.97 days since their 13 Oct game at Fenerbahce, Efes 1.98 days since their 14 Oct home loss to Bayern.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostZalgiris Kaunas over 20.5Estimated chance56.6%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 15, 03:56

Selected line

168.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

48%

Chance of 169+ points

4 pp below break-even

Over 1.94 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 48%.

Move the line main 168.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L92–82

Anadolu Efesv

Zalgiris Kaunas

Feb 6, 2026·EUR

L64–87

Zalgiris Kaunasv

Anadolu Efes

Dec 17, 2025·EUR

L87–77

Anadolu Efesv

Zalgiris Kaunas

Apr 11, 2025·EUR

W85–72

Zalgiris Kaunasv

Anadolu Efes

Dec 5, 2024·EUR

W96–70

Zalgiris Kaunasv

Anadolu Efes

Jan 31, 2024·EUR

L86–82

Anadolu Efesv

Zalgiris Kaunas

Nov 9, 2023·EUROT

L80–70

Anadolu Efesv

Zalgiris Kaunas

Feb 1, 2023·EUR

L60–86

Zalgiris Kaunasv

Anadolu Efes

Dec 9, 2022·EUR

L71–85

Zalgiris Kaunasv

Anadolu Efes

Mar 17, 2022·EUR

L94–60

Anadolu Efesv

Zalgiris Kaunas

Oct 29, 2021·EUR

158.6Avg total points

17Avg margin

10meetings

League table

EuroLeague · Euroleague - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Zalgiris Kaunas

2–340%

Anadolu Efes

1–420%

Recent Form

Zalgiris Kaunas

12W 3L · last 15

at Fenerbahce80–99 Oct 13EUR

at Nevezis80–76 Oct 11LKL

at Barcelona88–81 Oct 9EUR

vs Lietkabelis97–68 Oct 4LKL

at Paris78–82 Oct 1EUR

vs Olympiacos91–93 Sep 29EUR

vs Siauliai101–82 Sep 27LKL

at Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet83–77 Sep 24EUR

at Neptunas93–69 Sep 20LKL

at Gargzdai98–77 Sep 17LKL

vs Juventus95–77 Jun 12LKL

at Juventus100–69 Jun 9LKL

vs Juventus107–75 Jun 7LKL

vs Lietkabelis103–93 May 31LKL

at Lietkabelis95–75 May 28LKL

Anadolu Efes

8W 7L · last 15

vs Bayern93–101 Oct 14EUR

vs Denizli Basket85–76 Oct 11BAS

at Olympiacos66–89 Oct 9EUR

at Bordo Bandirma85–79 Oct 4BAS

at Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet72–77 Oct 1EUR

vs Real Madrid94–84 Sep 29EUR

vs Besiktas95–81 Sep 27BAS

at Barcelona82–89 Sep 24EUR

at Lokomotiv Kuban88–82 Sep 20VTB

vs Unics Kazan91–79 Sep 19VTB

at Zenit Petersburg100–76 Sep 18VTB

vs Fenerbahce93–102 OTJun 7BAS

vs Fenerbahce102–93 Jun 5BAS

at Fenerbahce72–73 Jun 3BAS

at Fenerbahce59–60 Jun 1BAS

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Zalgiris Kaunas

Stats

4–1

Anadolu Efes

12 games

Zalgiris Kaunas leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+4.5pp

60.5%

+4.5pp

56.0%

3-point %+10.9pp

40.3%

+10.9pp

29.4%

Free-throw %12/9 games+6.9pp

76.9%

+6.9pp

83.8%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s4.0pp apart

30.8%

4.0pp apart

26.8%

Free throws per shot12/9 games2.3pp apart

32.4%

2.3pp apart

34.7%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+3.0

33.8

+3.0

30.8

Turnovers per game0.1 fewer

13.2

0.1 fewer

13.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.