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Predictions graded

Tasmania JackJumpers88Adelaide94

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 08:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1127%

Edges0–20%

Points by period: Tasmania JackJumpers and Adelaide.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Tasmania JackJumpers	22	17	23	26
Adelaide	14	26	31	23

Quick Take

Pre-match view

First-placed Tasmania host an Adelaide side that has lost four of its seven games, and the 40-minute picture has Tasmania scoring 94.8 points to Adelaide's 89.2, with the JackJumpers ahead in about two of every three finishes including overtime.

Two prices offer something: Tasmania giving 2.5 points at 1.91 and Tasmania over 91.5 points at 1.81, both from the same expected score. Adelaide's 2.5-point start at 1.83 and Tasmania under 91.5 at 1.77 are priced against that view.

Context

Both teams are missing regulars: Adelaide are without starting centre Isaac Humphries because of a knee problem and guard Flynn Cameron because of a right ankle injury, while Tasmania remain without big man Majok Deng and have an unresolved fitness question over guard Dakota Mathias.

Deng fractured his left lower leg in the JackJumpers' home opener against South East Melbourne and was given a four-to-six-week return window at the end of September. By the round-four win over Illawarra on 9 October, coach Scott Roth said there was still no timeline for Deng and that Ben Gold would be used heavily while the big man is out. Deng's absence leaves Will Magnay and Gold as the main frontcourt options for the Adelaide game and trims the size Scott Roth can send against the 36ers' big men.
- Majok Deng fractured his left lower leg in the JackJumpers' home opener against South East Melbourne Phoenix.
- The club set a four-to-six-week return window for Deng after the injury.
- Going into the round-four win over Illawarra, coach Scott Roth said there was still no timeline for Deng and that Ben Gold would be used heavily in his absence.
Humphries, Adelaide's starting centre, has not played a game this season because of a knee problem the club has managed carefully. On 1 October the 36ers said he would continue his rehabilitation and that development player Deonte Williams would keep suiting up, and a day later the club said surgery had not been ruled out and could extend his absence. Coach Trevor Gleeson has said the team misses Humphries' basketball IQ and rim protection and has been conceding too many points in the paint. Nick Rakocevic has filled the starting centre role in his absence.
- Isaac Humphries has yet to play a game this season because of a knee injury.
- The 36ers said he will continue to rehabilitate the injury and that development player Deonte Williams will keep suiting up in his absence.
- The club said on 2 October it was still too early to know whether Humphries would require surgery that could extend his absence.
Mathias has been part of Tasmania's starting backcourt in the early rounds alongside Taran Armstrong. After taking a blow to the face in the round-four win over Illawarra, he went to hospital for x-rays and Roth described the damage as being to the cheek rather than the nose. Roth gave no status on Mathias at that press conference. If Mathias cannot play, the JackJumpers would lean further on replacement guards Kody Stattmann and Biwali Bayles, who were signed to cover the club's early-season injury run.
- Dakota Mathias went to hospital for x-rays after taking a hit to the face in the round-four win over Illawarra.
- Coach Scott Roth described the affected area as the cheek rather than the nose and gave no status on Mathias.
Cameron has been out since the opening weeks of the season with a right ankle injury. On 29 September the 36ers said he would miss at least the next three games and would then be reassessed, and on 6 October the club signed veteran Corey Webster as an injury replacement for him. Cameron's absence has left Adelaide lighter in the backcourt, with Keanu Rasmussen among the players asked to carry a bigger load while Bryce Cotton anchors the offence.
- Flynn Cameron will miss at least three games while he recovers from a right ankle injury, with his condition then to be reassessed.
- Adelaide signed three-time NBL champion Corey Webster as an injury replacement for Cameron.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

HandicaplostUncertainty band: Lean

Tasmania JackJumpers -2.5

1.91fair 1.62

Market 52.4% · BetBugs 61.7%

+9.3ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers cover -2.5 (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this. Tasmania sit first at 4-1 and score heavily, but their two home games this season were much lower-scoring than their road blowouts, so a mid-90s home total against an Adelaide side conceding 91.1 fits better than their raw average. Adelaide score 88 per game overall and have been inconsistent on the road (72 to 97), and their missing centre and guard depth are long-running rather than new, so they land just under 90.

Team PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

Tasmania JackJumpers over 91.5

1.81fair 1.55

Market 55.2% · BetBugs 64.3%

+9.1ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers score more than 91.5 points (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this. Tasmania sit first at 4-1 and score heavily, but their two home games this season were much lower-scoring than their road blowouts, so a mid-90s home total against an Adelaide side conceding 91.1 fits better than their raw average. Adelaide score 88 per game overall and have been inconsistent on the road (72 to 97), and their missing centre and guard depth are long-running rather than new, so they land just under 90.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers cover +4.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 80 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tasmania JackJumpers and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostTasmania JackJumpers +4.5Estimated chance80.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers win in about 67 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTasmania JackJumpersEstimated chance67.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostTasmania JackJumpersEstimated chance64.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers cover -2.5 (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · HandicaplostTasmania JackJumpers -2.5Estimated chance61.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostTasmania JackJumpersEstimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tasmania JackJumpers and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostTasmania JackJumpers +0.5Estimated chance59.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostTasmania JackJumpersEstimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers cover -1.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostTasmania JackJumpers -1.5Estimated chance56.6%

Points4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.81
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers score more than 91.5 points (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · Team PointslostTasmania JackJumpers over 91.5Estimated chance64.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. The game has more than 180.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 180.5Estimated chance60.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers score more than 22.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tasmania JackJumpers and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonTasmania JackJumpers over 22.5Estimated chance56.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Tasmania JackJumpers score more than 46.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostTasmania JackJumpers over 46.5Estimated chance56.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. The 1st half has more than 90.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostOver 90.5Estimated chance56.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. The 3rd quarter has more than 44.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tasmania JackJumpers and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 44.5Estimated chance55.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8, Adelaide 89.2. Adelaide score more than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tasmania JackJumpers and 15 for Adelaide, across seasons and competitions.
- Tasmania are 4-1 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 99.6 points for and 95.4 against over five games, including a 122-112 road win at Illawarra on 9 October.
- In their two 2026-27 home games Tasmania scored 84 (vs Melbourne United, 1 Oct) and 96 (vs South East Melbourne, 21 Sep) — about 90 points per home game.
- Adelaide are 3-4 in the NBL this season, averaging 88.0 points for and 91.1 against over seven games; their four road games produced 84, 92, 97 and 97 points.
- Adelaide starting centre Isaac Humphries has not played a game this season and remains out with a knee problem (club statements, 1-2 October), so his absence is already inside the 3-4 record and the 91.1 points conceded.
- Tasmania's Dakota Mathias, a starter at 31 minutes per game this season, went for x-rays after a facial knock on 9 October with no status given — a reported, unconfirmed availability question that is not counted.
- Head-to-head in 2025-26: Adelaide won 98-89 on 9 Oct 2025 and 97-86 at Tasmania on 13 Nov 2025, while Tasmania won 80-72 in Adelaide on 9 Jan 2026; all three are last-season results with changed rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonAdelaide over 21.5Estimated chance55.1%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 15, 03:56

Selected line

180.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

60%

Chance of 181+ points

+6 pp above break-even

Over 1.85 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 60%.

Move the line main 180.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 60%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 40%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W72–80

Adelaidev

Tasmania JackJumpers

Jan 9, 2026·NBL

L86–97

Tasmania JackJumpersv

Adelaide

Nov 13, 2025·NBL

L98–89

Adelaidev

Tasmania JackJumpers

Oct 9, 2025·NBL

W104–103

Tasmania JackJumpersv

Adelaide

Jan 10, 2025·NBLOT

W73–77

Adelaidev

Tasmania JackJumpers

Nov 30, 2024·NBL

L77–73

Adelaidev

Tasmania JackJumpers

Oct 20, 2024·NBL

W109–86

Tasmania JackJumpersv

Adelaide

Feb 4, 2024·NBL

W94–59

Tasmania JackJumpersv

Adelaide

Dec 2, 2023·NBL

W72–82

Adelaidev

Tasmania JackJumpers

Nov 11, 2023·NBL

W98–82

Tasmania JackJumpersv

Adelaide

Jan 12, 2023·NBL

171.1Avg total points

12.1Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Tasmania JackJumpers

4–180%

Adelaide

3–443%

Recent Form

Tasmania JackJumpers

7W 8L · last 15

at Illawarra Hawks122–112 Oct 9NBL

at Brisbane Bullets109–99 OTOct 3NBL

vs Melbourne United84–82 Oct 1NBL

at Cairns Taipans87–93 Sep 23NBL

vs South East Melbourne96–91 Sep 21NBL

at Melbourne United68–82 Mar 5NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks70–103 Feb 18NBL

at South East Melbourne104–120 Feb 14NBL

vs Brisbane Bullets114–70 Feb 6NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers91–89 Feb 1NBL

at Cairns Taipans93–96 OTJan 30NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks91–101 Jan 24NBL

at Sydney94–105 Jan 22NBL

at Melbourne United77–79 Jan 17NBL

at Adelaide80–72 Jan 9NBL

Adelaide

7W 8L · last 15

at Sydney84–78 Oct 11NBL

vs Melbourne United91–96 Oct 7NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers72–88 Oct 4NBL

at Illawarra Hawks92–114 Oct 2NBL

vs Cairns Taipans83–69 Sep 27NBL

at Perth97–98 Sep 24NBL

at Melbourne United97–95 Sep 19NBL

at Sydney101–113 OTApr 5NBL

vs Sydney92–91 Apr 1NBL

at Sydney93–106 Mar 29NBL

vs Sydney91–89 Mar 27NBL

at Sydney68–112 Mar 21NBL

vs South East Melbourne108–96 Mar 17NBL

at South East Melbourne92–101 Mar 14NBL

vs South East Melbourne104–97 Mar 10NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Tasmania JackJumpers

14 games

Stats

3–2

Adelaide

Tasmania JackJumpers leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %13/15 games+3.7pp

52.1%

+3.7pp

55.8%

3-point %13/15 games+0.2pp

33.5%

+0.2pp

33.7%

Free-throw %13/15 games+2.2pp

77.8%

+2.2pp

75.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s13/15 games6.6pp apart

29.0%

6.6pp apart

35.6%

Free throws per shot13/15 games6.3pp apart

34.6%

6.3pp apart

28.3%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game13/15 games+0.1

33.8

+0.1

33.7

Turnovers per game1.0 fewer

10.4

1.0 fewer

11.4

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.