Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Karsiyaka 86.7, Cayirova 80.2. Karsiyaka cover +6.5 (overtime included) in about 84 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Karsiyaka and 15 for Cayirova, across seasons and competitions.
- Cayirova allowed 100, 84 and 102 points in their three Basketbol Süper Ligi games this season (26 Sep–10 Oct 2026), an average of 95.3.
- Karsiyaka averaged 77.3 points across three league games, but the 78-71 win over Galatasaray (2 Oct) needed 45 minutes, so regulation output was nearer 71.
- Cayirova scored 85, 76 and 79 in their three top-flight games, well below the 95-102 they posted routinely in the 2025-26 TBL against weaker opposition.
- In 15 tracked games Karsiyaka shot 52.9% on two-pointers and 35.2% on threes, while Cayirova shot 41.7% from three and averaged 10.8 turnovers.
- Cayirova's offence leans on Jordon Crawford (20.7 ppg), Fabian White (14.7) and Rasheed Sulaimon (11.0) this season, and reports say the group fades late.
- The round-four fixture will be played behind closed doors under a Turkish Basketball Federation ruling, removing the usual home-crowd boost for Karsiyaka.
BetBugs · Handicapwon
Karsiyaka +6.5Estimated chance84%
Karsiyaka +6.5Estimated chance84%

























