LPBFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Esgueira91FC Porto95

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions17–674%

Edges2–0100%

Points by period: Esgueira and FC Porto.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Esgueira	27	19	14	31
FC Porto	25	24	22	24

Quick Take

Pre-match view

FC Porto, 2-0 in the LPB, visit an Esgueira side that has lost both league games, though Esgueira won both league meetings between them last season.

Porto are the likely winners. Two prices carry a potential edge: Esgueira +13.5 in the first half at 1.83 and FC Porto under 95.5 points at 1.77.

Context

Porto are in a busy three-competition October, with a Champions League trip to Bonn on 7 October before travelling to Aveiro after the Benfica win on 11 October, while Esgueira had a week between games. Scheduling background only; no player availability is established.

FC Porto arrive in Aveiro after a domestic Clássico win on 11 October, four days after their European opener in Germany. Benfica led 26-16 after the first quarter and 45-40 at half-time, but the hosts turned it around at the Dragão Arena. Miguel Queiroz's midcourt basket was among the highlights. The result keeps FC Porto unbeaten in the Portuguese league going into the trip to Esgueira, where an Esgueira side that has already lost heavily at Sporting will try to respond at home. How much coach Fernando Sá rotates during a busy October is the main uncertainty.
- FC Porto trailed 16-26 after the first quarter and 40-45 at half-time before winning 93-86.
- The Clássico was FC Porto's first home league game of the season.
- Head coach Fernando Sá said afterwards that the team still has room to improve.
Esgueira go into round three after a 28-point league defeat at Sporting CP on 10 October. American forward Javian Davis scored six points and added six rebounds in that game. The Aveiro club now host an unbeaten FC Porto team that has just won the Clássico against Benfica, so Esgueira's ability to stay competitive on their own floor is the central question for this fixture. Their early-season rotation is the main uncertainty.
- Sporting CP beat Esgueira 88-60 on 10 October.
- Javian Davis scored six points and collected six rebounds for Esgueira in that game.
The trip to Bonn on 7 October sat between the opening weeks of the domestic season and the Clássico against Benfica on 11 October, with FC Porto then due in Aveiro on 16 October. Balancing the Portuguese league with Basketball Champions League Group H means the coaching staff must manage minutes across a busy October. This is scheduling background only and does not confirm that any player will be rested or unavailable in Aveiro.
- FC Porto trailed 43-32 at half-time in Bonn and fell 22 points behind before cutting the gap.
- The match was FC Porto's first in Champions League Group H.
- Head coach Fernando Sá highlighted the team's persistence in the comeback attempt.
The Super Cup was won in Albufeira on 26 September, before the league and European campaigns gathered pace, and the trophy was presented to the club museum on 12 October. The win over Sporting, a leading domestic rival, showed FC Porto's ability to recover from a slow start, a pattern repeated in the Clássico against Benfica. It is season pedigree rather than a match-specific factor, and the lineup for the trip to Esgueira remains open.
- FC Porto overturned a 10-point deficit to beat Sporting 80-76 and claim the Super Cup.
- Head coach Fernando Sá said the first half was below the team's usual level and praised the improved defensive effort after the break.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Half HandicapwonUncertainty band: Lean

Esgueira +13.5

1.83fair 1.67

Market 54.6% · BetBugs 59.9%

+5.3ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. Esgueira cover +13.5 in the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this. Porto are the stronger team right now, shooting better inside, rebounding more and giving the ball away less than an Esgueira side that has started 0-2 and scored only 60 and 64 points. Esgueira have won at home against Porto in each of the last two seasons and should score in the low 70s, with Porto in the low 90s.

Team PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

FC Porto under 95.5

1.77fair 1.65

Market 56.5% · BetBugs 60.7%

+4.2ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto score fewer than 95.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this. Porto are the stronger team right now, shooting better inside, rebounding more and giving the ball away less than an Esgueira side that has started 0-2 and scored only 60 and 64 points. Esgueira have won at home against Porto in each of the last two seasons and should score in the low 70s, with Porto in the low 90s.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result9 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto win in about 94 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC PortoEstimated chance94.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 94 of 100 games like this.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonFC PortoEstimated chance93.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 86 of 100 games like this.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonFC PortoEstimated chance86.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 79 of 100 games like this.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonFC PortoEstimated chance78.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostFC PortoEstimated chance72.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonFC PortoEstimated chance69.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto cover -0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 70 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonFC Porto -0.5Estimated chance69.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto cover -2.5 in the 1st quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostFC Porto -2.5Estimated chance62.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. Esgueira cover +23.5 (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · HandicapwonEsgueira +23.5Estimated chance60.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. Esgueira cover +13.5 in the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonEsgueira +13.5Estimated chance59.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto cover -4.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonFC Porto -4.5Estimated chance59.7%

Points8 of 12 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto score more than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 74 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonFC Porto over 20.5Estimated chance74.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. The 2nd quarter has more than 37.5 points in about 71 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 37.5Estimated chance70.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. Esgueira score fewer than 39.5 points in the 1st half in about 70 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostEsgueira under 39.5Estimated chance69.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. The 3rd quarter has more than 37.5 points in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostOver 37.5Estimated chance67.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. Esgueira score fewer than 19.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonEsgueira under 19.5Estimated chance64.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.77
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto score fewer than 95.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · Team PointswonFC Porto under 95.5Estimated chance60.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. Esgueira score fewer than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonEsgueira under 19.5Estimated chance59.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto score more than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonFC Porto over 21.5Estimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. FC Porto score more than 45.5 points in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonFC Porto over 45.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. The 1st half has fewer than 84.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Esgueira and 15 for FC Porto, across seasons and competitions.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 84.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. Esgueira score more than 17.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonEsgueira over 17.5Estimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Esgueira 72.5, FC Porto 92.5. The game has fewer than 167.5 points (overtime included) in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Esgueira are 0-2 in the 2026-27 LPB, scoring 62.0 and conceding 86.0 a game (124 for, 172 against), including a 60-88 loss at Sporting CP on 10 October and a 64-84 home loss to CD Povoa on 3 October.
- FC Porto are 2-0 in the 2026-27 LPB (203 for, 179 against), winning 110-93 at CA Queluz on 2 October and 93-86 at home to Benfica on 11 October after trailing by 10.
- Across tracked box scores this season and last, Porto shoot 52.5% on two-pointers versus Esgueira's 48.4%, grab 36.6 rebounds versus 30.1, and turn the ball over 12.8 times versus 16.3.
- In the last four head-to-head LPB meetings Esgueira won twice: 86-85 in Porto on 25 April 2026 and 76-67 at home on 10 January 2026, while Porto won the Taca de Portugal tie 100-78 on 18 January 2026.
- Porto played a third competition in October, losing 74-78 at Bonn in the Champions League on 7 October, and travel to Aveiro four days after the Benfica win.
BetBugs · Total PointslostUnder 167.5Estimated chance55.5%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 15, 03:57

Selected line

167.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

45%

Chance of 168+ points

11 pp below break-even

Over 1.80 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 45%.

Move the line main 167.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 45%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 56%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W85–86

FC Portov

Esgueira

Apr 25, 2026·LPB

L78–100

Esgueirav

FC Porto

Jan 18, 2026·TAC

W76–67

Esgueirav

FC Porto

Jan 10, 2026·LPB

L81–96

Esgueirav

FC Porto

Apr 5, 2025·LPB

L94–83

FC Portov

Esgueira

Dec 14, 2024·LPB

L45–104

Esgueirav

FC Porto

Mar 2, 2024·LPB

L106–82

FC Portov

Esgueira

Oct 27, 2023·LPB

L94–73

FC Portov

Esgueira

Jan 27, 2023·LPB

L83–87

Esgueirav

FC Porto

Dec 4, 2022·LPB

L64–96

Esgueirav

FC Porto

Mar 27, 2021·TAC

168Avg total points

19.8Avg margin

10meetings

League table

LPB · LPB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Esgueira

0–20%

FC Porto

2–0100%

Recent Form

Esgueira

4W 11L · last 15

at Sporting CP60–88 Oct 10LPB

vs CD Povoa64–84 Oct 3LPB

vs Sporting CP73–85 May 14LPB

at Sporting CP67–109 May 10LPB

at FC Porto86–85 Apr 25LPB

vs Benfica65–107 Apr 18LPB

at Vitoria87–93 Apr 11LPB

vs Imortal97–83 OTApr 4LPB

at Sporting CP79–95 Mar 28LPB

at Oliveirense69–92 Mar 25TAC

vs Oliveirense93–88 Mar 21LPB

at Vasco Da Gama84–98 Mar 14LPB

vs Benfica75–102 Mar 8TAC

vs Braga76–97 Feb 21LPB

at CA Queluz92–84 Feb 14LPB

FC Porto

11W 4L · last 15

vs Benfica93–86 Oct 11LPB

at Bonn74–78 Oct 7CL

at CA Queluz110–93 Oct 2LPB

vs Sporting CP80–76 Sep 26SUP

vs Benfica75–71 Jun 14LPB

vs Benfica87–63 Jun 12LPB

at Benfica102–98 OTJun 9LPB

at Benfica73–89 Jun 7LPB

vs Sporting CP94–86 May 31LPB

vs Sporting CP86–76 May 29LPB

at Sporting CP73–88 May 25LPB

at Sporting CP81–70 May 23LPB

at Imortal102–79 May 14LPB

vs Imortal88–66 May 10LPB

vs Oliveirense86–89 Apr 30TAC

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Esgueira

Stats

0–5

FC Porto

FC Porto leads in 5 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %15/14 games+4.1pp

48.4%

+4.1pp

52.5%

3-point %15/14 games+0.7pp

33.8%

+0.7pp

34.5%

Free-throw %15/14 games+0.4pp

66.9%

+0.4pp

67.3%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s15/14 games4.3pp apart

40.0%

4.3pp apart

35.7%

Free throws per shot15/14 games4.2pp apart

28.1%

4.2pp apart

32.3%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game15/14 games+6.5

30.1

+6.5

36.6

Turnovers per game3.5 fewer

16.3

3.5 fewer

12.8

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.