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Predictions graded

Team FOG Naestved86Svendborg83

Thu 15 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Points by period: Team FOG Naestved and Svendborg.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Team FOG Naestved	28	22	15	21
Svendborg	18	16	21	28

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Naestved are 4-0 in the Basketligaen and Svendborg 4-1, so the test is whether the league leaders' scoring power holds against a side beaten only once.

Naestved are the likely winners, ahead after 40 minutes in about 82 of 100 games like this. No price stands out at our numbers, and the Naestved under 93.5 team total at 1.71 is one to leave alone.

Context

Naestved arrive 4-0 with a 106.3-point league average, while Svendborg are 4-1 and have the better turnover and three-point numbers over the last 15 completed games of each side; Svendborg's reported addition of guard Ryan Cornish is unconfirmed and its effect here is unclear.

Svendborg have added guard Ryan Cornish, who played college basketball at Dartmouth and USC, with the move announced on 8 and 12 October 2026, days before this Naestved fixture. He is expected to join the squad for the game, giving the coaches another option in the backcourt alongside the guards already in the rotation. Whether he is registered in time and ready for immediate minutes is unconfirmed, so his exact role here is unclear. If he plays, Svendborg gain fresh guard depth; if not, the club goes with its existing group. The club has not yet publicly confirmed the signing.
- Ryan Cornish has signed with the Svendborg Rabbits.
- The signing was announced on 8 October 2026.
- A second announcement on 12 October 2026 also reported the move.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Team FOG Naestved 94.5, Svendborg 82.2. Team FOG Naestved win in about 83 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Naestved are 4-0 in Basketligaen 2026-27 through 10 October, scoring 425 points and conceding 250 (106.3 for, 62.5 against per game) in wins over BMS Herlev, Copenhagen, Horsens and Holbaek-Stenhus.
- Svendborg are 4-1 through 7 October, scoring 446 and conceding 394 in the same competition (89.2 for, 78.8 against per game), with their only loss 70-92 at home to Horsens.
- Naestved have won five of the last six completed meetings, including 111-87 at home on 4 May 2026 and 95-80 in Svendborg on 7 May 2026, all in Basketligaen.
- Across 15 tracked games Naestved shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and 27.7% on threes against Svendborg's 53.8% and 29.9%, and out-rebound Svendborg 40.9 to 34.5 per game.
- Svendborg take better care of the ball (12.7 turnovers per game) than Naestved (15.3) over the same 15-game window.
- The table lists Naestved first at 4-0 and Svendborg third at 4-1 in the Basketligaen regular season as of 15 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTeam FOG NaestvedEstimated chance83.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Team FOG Naestved 94.5, Svendborg 82.2. Team FOG Naestved are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 82 of 100 games like this.
- Naestved are 4-0 in Basketligaen 2026-27 through 10 October, scoring 425 points and conceding 250 (106.3 for, 62.5 against per game) in wins over BMS Herlev, Copenhagen, Horsens and Holbaek-Stenhus.
- Svendborg are 4-1 through 7 October, scoring 446 and conceding 394 in the same competition (89.2 for, 78.8 against per game), with their only loss 70-92 at home to Horsens.
- Naestved have won five of the last six completed meetings, including 111-87 at home on 4 May 2026 and 95-80 in Svendborg on 7 May 2026, all in Basketligaen.
- Across 15 tracked games Naestved shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and 27.7% on threes against Svendborg's 53.8% and 29.9%, and out-rebound Svendborg 40.9 to 34.5 per game.
- Svendborg take better care of the ball (12.7 turnovers per game) than Naestved (15.3) over the same 15-game window.
- The table lists Naestved first at 4-0 and Svendborg third at 4-1 in the Basketligaen regular season as of 15 October.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonTeam FOG NaestvedEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Team FOG Naestved 94.5, Svendborg 82.2. Team FOG Naestved are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 74 of 100 games like this.
- Naestved are 4-0 in Basketligaen 2026-27 through 10 October, scoring 425 points and conceding 250 (106.3 for, 62.5 against per game) in wins over BMS Herlev, Copenhagen, Horsens and Holbaek-Stenhus.
- Svendborg are 4-1 through 7 October, scoring 446 and conceding 394 in the same competition (89.2 for, 78.8 against per game), with their only loss 70-92 at home to Horsens.
- Naestved have won five of the last six completed meetings, including 111-87 at home on 4 May 2026 and 95-80 in Svendborg on 7 May 2026, all in Basketligaen.
- Across 15 tracked games Naestved shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and 27.7% on threes against Svendborg's 53.8% and 29.9%, and out-rebound Svendborg 40.9 to 34.5 per game.
- Svendborg take better care of the ball (12.7 turnovers per game) than Naestved (15.3) over the same 15-game window.
- The table lists Naestved first at 4-0 and Svendborg third at 4-1 in the Basketligaen regular season as of 15 October.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonTeam FOG NaestvedEstimated chance74.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Team FOG Naestved 94.5, Svendborg 82.2. Team FOG Naestved cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Team FOG Naestved and 15 for Svendborg, across seasons and competitions.
- Naestved are 4-0 in Basketligaen 2026-27 through 10 October, scoring 425 points and conceding 250 (106.3 for, 62.5 against per game) in wins over BMS Herlev, Copenhagen, Horsens and Holbaek-Stenhus.
- Svendborg are 4-1 through 7 October, scoring 446 and conceding 394 in the same competition (89.2 for, 78.8 against per game), with their only loss 70-92 at home to Horsens.
- Naestved have won five of the last six completed meetings, including 111-87 at home on 4 May 2026 and 95-80 in Svendborg on 7 May 2026, all in Basketligaen.
- Across 15 tracked games Naestved shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and 27.7% on threes against Svendborg's 53.8% and 29.9%, and out-rebound Svendborg 40.9 to 34.5 per game.
- Svendborg take better care of the ball (12.7 turnovers per game) than Naestved (15.3) over the same 15-game window.
- The table lists Naestved first at 4-0 and Svendborg third at 4-1 in the Basketligaen regular season as of 15 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonTeam FOG Naestved +0.5Estimated chance72.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Team FOG Naestved 94.5, Svendborg 82.2. Svendborg cover +6.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 70 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Team FOG Naestved and 15 for Svendborg, across seasons and competitions.
- Naestved are 4-0 in Basketligaen 2026-27 through 10 October, scoring 425 points and conceding 250 (106.3 for, 62.5 against per game) in wins over BMS Herlev, Copenhagen, Horsens and Holbaek-Stenhus.
- Svendborg are 4-1 through 7 October, scoring 446 and conceding 394 in the same competition (89.2 for, 78.8 against per game), with their only loss 70-92 at home to Horsens.
- Naestved have won five of the last six completed meetings, including 111-87 at home on 4 May 2026 and 95-80 in Svendborg on 7 May 2026, all in Basketligaen.
- Across 15 tracked games Naestved shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and 27.7% on threes against Svendborg's 53.8% and 29.9%, and out-rebound Svendborg 40.9 to 34.5 per game.
- Svendborg take better care of the ball (12.7 turnovers per game) than Naestved (15.3) over the same 15-game window.
- The table lists Naestved first at 4-0 and Svendborg third at 4-1 in the Basketligaen regular season as of 15 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonSvendborg +6.5Estimated chance70.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Team FOG Naestved 94.5, Svendborg 82.2. Team FOG Naestved are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Naestved are 4-0 in Basketligaen 2026-27 through 10 October, scoring 425 points and conceding 250 (106.3 for, 62.5 against per game) in wins over BMS Herlev, Copenhagen, Horsens and Holbaek-Stenhus.
- Svendborg are 4-1 through 7 October, scoring 446 and conceding 394 in the same competition (89.2 for, 78.8 against per game), with their only loss 70-92 at home to Horsens.
- Naestved have won five of the last six completed meetings, including 111-87 at home on 4 May 2026 and 95-80 in Svendborg on 7 May 2026, all in Basketligaen.
- Across 15 tracked games Naestved shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and 27.7% on threes against Svendborg's 53.8% and 29.9%, and out-rebound Svendborg 40.9 to 34.5 per game.
- Svendborg take better care of the ball (12.7 turnovers per game) than Naestved (15.3) over the same 15-game window.
- The table lists Naestved first at 4-0 and Svendborg third at 4-1 in the Basketligaen regular season as of 15 October.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonTeam FOG NaestvedEstimated chance67.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Team FOG Naestved 94.5, Svendborg 82.2. Team FOG Naestved are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Naestved are 4-0 in Basketligaen 2026-27 through 10 October, scoring 425 points and conceding 250 (106.3 for, 62.5 against per game) in wins over BMS Herlev, Copenhagen, Horsens and Holbaek-Stenhus.
- Svendborg are 4-1 through 7 October, scoring 446 and conceding 394 in the same competition (89.2 for, 78.8 against per game), with their only loss 70-92 at home to Horsens.
- Naestved have won five of the last six completed meetings, including 111-87 at home on 4 May 2026 and 95-80 in Svendborg on 7 May 2026, all in Basketligaen.
- Across 15 tracked games Naestved shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and 27.7% on threes against Svendborg's 53.8% and 29.9%, and out-rebound Svendborg 40.9 to 34.5 per game.
- Svendborg take better care of the ball (12.7 turnovers per game) than Naestved (15.3) over the same 15-game window.
- The table lists Naestved first at 4-0 and Svendborg third at 4-1 in the Basketligaen regular season as of 15 October.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonTeam FOG NaestvedEstimated chance63.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Team FOG Naestved 94.5, Svendborg 82.2. Team FOG Naestved are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Naestved are 4-0 in Basketligaen 2026-27 through 10 October, scoring 425 points and conceding 250 (106.3 for, 62.5 against per game) in wins over BMS Herlev, Copenhagen, Horsens and Holbaek-Stenhus.
- Svendborg are 4-1 through 7 October, scoring 446 and conceding 394 in the same competition (89.2 for, 78.8 against per game), with their only loss 70-92 at home to Horsens.
- Naestved have won five of the last six completed meetings, including 111-87 at home on 4 May 2026 and 95-80 in Svendborg on 7 May 2026, all in Basketligaen.
- Across 15 tracked games Naestved shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and 27.7% on threes against Svendborg's 53.8% and 29.9%, and out-rebound Svendborg 40.9 to 34.5 per game.
- Svendborg take better care of the ball (12.7 turnovers per game) than Naestved (15.3) over the same 15-game window.
- The table lists Naestved first at 4-0 and Svendborg third at 4-1 in the Basketligaen regular season as of 15 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostTeam FOG NaestvedEstimated chance61.5%

Points0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Team FOG Naestved 94.5, Svendborg 82.2. The 3rd quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Team FOG Naestved and 15 for Svendborg, across seasons and competitions.
- Naestved are 4-0 in Basketligaen 2026-27 through 10 October, scoring 425 points and conceding 250 (106.3 for, 62.5 against per game) in wins over BMS Herlev, Copenhagen, Horsens and Holbaek-Stenhus.
- Svendborg are 4-1 through 7 October, scoring 446 and conceding 394 in the same competition (89.2 for, 78.8 against per game), with their only loss 70-92 at home to Horsens.
- Naestved have won five of the last six completed meetings, including 111-87 at home on 4 May 2026 and 95-80 in Svendborg on 7 May 2026, all in Basketligaen.
- Across 15 tracked games Naestved shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and 27.7% on threes against Svendborg's 53.8% and 29.9%, and out-rebound Svendborg 40.9 to 34.5 per game.
- Svendborg take better care of the ball (12.7 turnovers per game) than Naestved (15.3) over the same 15-game window.
- The table lists Naestved first at 4-0 and Svendborg third at 4-1 in the Basketligaen regular season as of 15 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostOver 40.5Estimated chance66.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Team FOG Naestved 94.5, Svendborg 82.2. Team FOG Naestved score more than 93.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Naestved are 4-0 in Basketligaen 2026-27 through 10 October, scoring 425 points and conceding 250 (106.3 for, 62.5 against per game) in wins over BMS Herlev, Copenhagen, Horsens and Holbaek-Stenhus.
- Svendborg are 4-1 through 7 October, scoring 446 and conceding 394 in the same competition (89.2 for, 78.8 against per game), with their only loss 70-92 at home to Horsens.
- Naestved have won five of the last six completed meetings, including 111-87 at home on 4 May 2026 and 95-80 in Svendborg on 7 May 2026, all in Basketligaen.
- Across 15 tracked games Naestved shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and 27.7% on threes against Svendborg's 53.8% and 29.9%, and out-rebound Svendborg 40.9 to 34.5 per game.
- Svendborg take better care of the ball (12.7 turnovers per game) than Naestved (15.3) over the same 15-game window.
- The table lists Naestved first at 4-0 and Svendborg third at 4-1 in the Basketligaen regular season as of 15 October.
BetBugs · Team PointslostTeam FOG Naestved over 93.5Estimated chance55.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Team FOG Naestved 94.5, Svendborg 82.2. Team FOG Naestved score more than 22.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Team FOG Naestved and 15 for Svendborg, across seasons and competitions.
- Naestved are 4-0 in Basketligaen 2026-27 through 10 October, scoring 425 points and conceding 250 (106.3 for, 62.5 against per game) in wins over BMS Herlev, Copenhagen, Horsens and Holbaek-Stenhus.
- Svendborg are 4-1 through 7 October, scoring 446 and conceding 394 in the same competition (89.2 for, 78.8 against per game), with their only loss 70-92 at home to Horsens.
- Naestved have won five of the last six completed meetings, including 111-87 at home on 4 May 2026 and 95-80 in Svendborg on 7 May 2026, all in Basketligaen.
- Across 15 tracked games Naestved shoot 58.1% on two-pointers and 27.7% on threes against Svendborg's 53.8% and 29.9%, and out-rebound Svendborg 40.9 to 34.5 per game.
- Svendborg take better care of the ball (12.7 turnovers per game) than Naestved (15.3) over the same 15-game window.
- The table lists Naestved first at 4-0 and Svendborg third at 4-1 in the Basketligaen regular season as of 15 October.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostTeam FOG Naestved over 22.5Estimated chance55.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 15, 03:56

Selected line

175.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

54%

Chance of 176+ points

2 pp below break-even

Over 1.79 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 54%.

Move the line main 175.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 54%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 46%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W80–95

Svendborgv

Team FOG Naestved

May 7, 2026·BAS

W111–87

Team FOG Naestvedv

Svendborg

May 4, 2026·BAS

W63–75

Svendborgv

Team FOG Naestved

Apr 30, 2026·BAS

L88–101

Team FOG Naestvedv

Svendborg

Apr 27, 2026·BAS

W92–90

Team FOG Naestvedv

Svendborg

Mar 30, 2026·BAS

W83–86

Svendborgv

Team FOG Naestved

Mar 12, 2026·BAS

L97–96

Svendborgv

Team FOG Naestved

Dec 28, 2025·BAS

W83–69

Team FOG Naestvedv

Svendborg

Dec 20, 2025·DEN

W106–78

Team FOG Naestvedv

Svendborg

Nov 12, 2025·BAS

L91–59

Svendborgv

Team FOG Naestved

Mar 24, 2025·BAS

173Avg total points

14.4Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Canal Digital Ligaen · Basketligaen - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Team FOG Naestved

4–0100%

Svendborg

4–180%

Recent Form

Team FOG Naestved

9W 6L · last 15

at BMS Herlev117–55 Oct 10BAS

vs Copenhagen90–66 Sep 30BAS

at Horsens101–73 Sep 27BAS

vs Holbaek-Stenhus117–56 Sep 24BAS

vs Bakken Bears81–87 May 25BAS

at Bakken Bears86–98 May 21BAS

vs Bakken Bears81–91 May 18BAS

at Bakken Bears93–92 OTMay 14BAS

at Svendborg95–80 May 7BAS

vs Svendborg111–87 May 4BAS

at Svendborg75–63 Apr 30BAS

vs Svendborg88–101 Apr 27BAS

at Horsens82–103 Apr 20BAS

at Copenhagen104–98 OTApr 17BAS

vs Bakken Bears61–95 Apr 10BAS

Svendborg

9W 6L · last 15

at Gladsaxe92–70 Oct 7BAS

vs Vejen102–74 Oct 2BAS

vs Holbaek-Stenhus86–75 Sep 26BAS

at Randers96–83 Sep 23BAS

vs Horsens70–92 Sep 17BAS

vs Horsens103–78 May 14BAS

vs Team FOG Naestved80–95 May 7BAS

at Team FOG Naestved87–111 May 4BAS

vs Team FOG Naestved63–75 Apr 30BAS

at Team FOG Naestved101–88 Apr 27BAS

vs Bakken Bears85–69 Apr 20BAS

at Randers78–96 Apr 17BAS

vs Copenhagen73–68 Apr 9BAS

vs Horsens68–67 Apr 6BAS

at Team FOG Naestved90–92 Mar 30BAS

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Team FOG Naestved

Stats

2–3

Svendborg

Svendborg leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+4.3pp

58.1%

+4.3pp

53.8%

3-point %+2.2pp

27.7%

+2.2pp

29.9%

Free-throw %+3.2pp

68.1%

+3.2pp

71.3%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s5.2pp apart

23.1%

5.2pp apart

28.3%

Free throws per shot0.8pp apart

34.3%

0.8pp apart

33.5%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+6.4

40.9

+6.4

34.5

Turnovers per game2.6 fewer

15.3

2.6 fewer

12.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.