EuroLeagueFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Real Madrid111Lyon-Villeurbanne92

Thu 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Points by period: Real Madrid and Lyon-Villeurbanne.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Real Madrid	27	34	16	34
Lyon-Villeurbanne	25	23	23	21

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Real Madrid carry a four-game winning run and an expected 94.5-80.7 score into a EuroLeague meeting with Lyon-Villeurbanne, who have lost three of five.

Madrid are the likely winners both after 40 minutes and in the full game. No quoted price stands out: the under 174.5 combined points at 1.92 and Real Madrid under 94.5 total at 1.84 are not worth backing.

Context

Gabriel Deck's confirmed shoulder surgery and months out leave Real Madrid short in the frontcourt, and ASVEL are without Mathis Dossou-Yovo; both sides sit at 2-3 after five EuroLeague rounds.

Gabriel Deck has been a first-choice forward for Real Madrid, and the medical update of 12 October confirmed anterior instability in his left shoulder after a dislocation. Reports that day and on 13 October said surgery would keep him out for several months, following an earlier club line that he would miss at least two games. Deck had already sat out the EuroLeague wins over Partizan and Milan. For this fixture his absence pushes more power-forward minutes onto Mikael Jantunen and removes a defender who can switch across both forward spots. Because the lay-off is long, the uncertainty is about how Real Madrid manage the position rather than whether Deck plays.
- Real Madrid's medical staff diagnosed anterior instability in Gabriel Deck's left shoulder after a dislocation.
- Deck is expected to need surgery and is set for several months on the sidelines.
- Real Madrid were already without Gabriel Deck for the wins over Partizan and Milan before the longer absence was confirmed.
Usman Garuba has been missing from Real Madrid's EuroLeague squad lists all season while he recovers from a long-term problem. After the win in Milan on 13 October, coach Pedro Martínez said a deep roster can absorb the long absences of both Garuba and Deck, and that a market move is not planned. Garuba's absence matters less for this game because Edy Tavares, Damian Jones and Olivier Sarr cover the centre minutes, but it leaves little room for another frontcourt injury during the EuroLeague double week. No return date has been reported.
- Usman Garuba has not appeared in Real Madrid's EuroLeague squad lists this season.
- Pedro Martínez said after the win in Milan that the squad can cover the long-term absences of Deck and Garuba and that the club does not need to enter the market for now.
Mathis Dossou-Yovo picked up an adductor injury in pre-season and has not played in the opening EuroLeague rounds. ASVEL expected him to be sidelined until November and responded by signing Juhann Begarin on a one-month medical replacement deal. Dossou-Yovo was again listed among the absentees for the home loss to Crvena Zvezda on 13 October. His absence leaves Joel Bolomboy and Bodian Massa carrying the centre minutes, with Yves Pons able to slide inside. The uncertainty is whether Dossou-Yovo beats the club's original November target, but nothing indicates he will feature in Madrid.
- Mathis Dossou-Yovo suffered an adductor injury in pre-season and has missed the opening EuroLeague rounds.
- ASVEL listed Dossou-Yovo among the absentees for the home game against Crvena Zvezda on 13 October.
- ASVEL signed Juhann Begarin on a one-month medical replacement deal to cover his absence.
ASVEL's pre-season plans were disrupted when centre Mathis Dossou-Yovo suffered an adductor injury, and on 7 October the club signed Juhann Begarin on a one-month medical replacement contract. Begarin is a 24-year-old, 1.96m forward who has played in the French league for Paris, Nanterre and Monaco. He was not in the group for the EuroLeague home loss to Crvena Zvezda on 13 October, when ASVEL also listed Edwin Jackson and Fodzo Dada out. His availability in Madrid is therefore unclear, but he adds a wing option for a roster managing a double week.
- LDLC ASVEL announced Juhann Begarin on a one-month medical replacement deal for Mathis Dossou-Yovo.
- Begarin is a 24-year-old 1.96m forward who has played in the French league for Paris, Nanterre and Monaco.
- Begarin was absent when ASVEL lost at home to Crvena Zvezda on 13 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 94.5, Lyon-Villeurbanne 80.7. Real Madrid win in about 86 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Real Madrid are 2-3 in the EuroLeague with 443 points scored and 439 conceded over five rounds, but have won four straight overall, including 86-76 at home to Partizan (8 October) and 98-89 at Milan (13 October).
- Lyon-Villeurbanne are 2-3 in the EuroLeague, scoring 435 and conceding 461 (92.2 per game) across five rounds, the second-worst defensive mark of these two teams.
- In last season's EuroLeague meetings Real Madrid won 85-72 at home (9 October 2025) and 80-69 away (6 January 2026), holding ASVEL to 72 and 69 points.
- Across their last 15 games, ASVEL shoot 33.2% from three and 70.7% from the free-throw line, against Madrid's 34.6% and 80.1%.
- Real Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, confirmed on 12 October to need shoulder surgery and months out, while Usman Garuba has been absent all season (reported); ASVEL's Mathis Dossou-Yovo remains sidelined with an adductor injury.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonReal MadridEstimated chance86.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 94.5, Lyon-Villeurbanne 80.7. Real Madrid are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 85 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 2-3 in the EuroLeague with 443 points scored and 439 conceded over five rounds, but have won four straight overall, including 86-76 at home to Partizan (8 October) and 98-89 at Milan (13 October).
- Lyon-Villeurbanne are 2-3 in the EuroLeague, scoring 435 and conceding 461 (92.2 per game) across five rounds, the second-worst defensive mark of these two teams.
- In last season's EuroLeague meetings Real Madrid won 85-72 at home (9 October 2025) and 80-69 away (6 January 2026), holding ASVEL to 72 and 69 points.
- Across their last 15 games, ASVEL shoot 33.2% from three and 70.7% from the free-throw line, against Madrid's 34.6% and 80.1%.
- Real Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, confirmed on 12 October to need shoulder surgery and months out, while Usman Garuba has been absent all season (reported); ASVEL's Mathis Dossou-Yovo remains sidelined with an adductor injury.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonReal MadridEstimated chance84.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 94.5, Lyon-Villeurbanne 80.7. Real Madrid are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 77 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 2-3 in the EuroLeague with 443 points scored and 439 conceded over five rounds, but have won four straight overall, including 86-76 at home to Partizan (8 October) and 98-89 at Milan (13 October).
- Lyon-Villeurbanne are 2-3 in the EuroLeague, scoring 435 and conceding 461 (92.2 per game) across five rounds, the second-worst defensive mark of these two teams.
- In last season's EuroLeague meetings Real Madrid won 85-72 at home (9 October 2025) and 80-69 away (6 January 2026), holding ASVEL to 72 and 69 points.
- Across their last 15 games, ASVEL shoot 33.2% from three and 70.7% from the free-throw line, against Madrid's 34.6% and 80.1%.
- Real Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, confirmed on 12 October to need shoulder surgery and months out, while Usman Garuba has been absent all season (reported); ASVEL's Mathis Dossou-Yovo remains sidelined with an adductor injury.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonReal MadridEstimated chance77.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 94.5, Lyon-Villeurbanne 80.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne cover +8.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 72 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Real Madrid and 15 for Lyon-Villeurbanne, across seasons and competitions.
- Real Madrid are 2-3 in the EuroLeague with 443 points scored and 439 conceded over five rounds, but have won four straight overall, including 86-76 at home to Partizan (8 October) and 98-89 at Milan (13 October).
- Lyon-Villeurbanne are 2-3 in the EuroLeague, scoring 435 and conceding 461 (92.2 per game) across five rounds, the second-worst defensive mark of these two teams.
- In last season's EuroLeague meetings Real Madrid won 85-72 at home (9 October 2025) and 80-69 away (6 January 2026), holding ASVEL to 72 and 69 points.
- Across their last 15 games, ASVEL shoot 33.2% from three and 70.7% from the free-throw line, against Madrid's 34.6% and 80.1%.
- Real Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, confirmed on 12 October to need shoulder surgery and months out, while Usman Garuba has been absent all season (reported); ASVEL's Mathis Dossou-Yovo remains sidelined with an adductor injury.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostLyon-Villeurbanne +8.5Estimated chance71.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 94.5, Lyon-Villeurbanne 80.7. Real Madrid are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 2-3 in the EuroLeague with 443 points scored and 439 conceded over five rounds, but have won four straight overall, including 86-76 at home to Partizan (8 October) and 98-89 at Milan (13 October).
- Lyon-Villeurbanne are 2-3 in the EuroLeague, scoring 435 and conceding 461 (92.2 per game) across five rounds, the second-worst defensive mark of these two teams.
- In last season's EuroLeague meetings Real Madrid won 85-72 at home (9 October 2025) and 80-69 away (6 January 2026), holding ASVEL to 72 and 69 points.
- Across their last 15 games, ASVEL shoot 33.2% from three and 70.7% from the free-throw line, against Madrid's 34.6% and 80.1%.
- Real Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, confirmed on 12 October to need shoulder surgery and months out, while Usman Garuba has been absent all season (reported); ASVEL's Mathis Dossou-Yovo remains sidelined with an adductor injury.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonReal MadridEstimated chance70.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 94.5, Lyon-Villeurbanne 80.7. Real Madrid are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 2-3 in the EuroLeague with 443 points scored and 439 conceded over five rounds, but have won four straight overall, including 86-76 at home to Partizan (8 October) and 98-89 at Milan (13 October).
- Lyon-Villeurbanne are 2-3 in the EuroLeague, scoring 435 and conceding 461 (92.2 per game) across five rounds, the second-worst defensive mark of these two teams.
- In last season's EuroLeague meetings Real Madrid won 85-72 at home (9 October 2025) and 80-69 away (6 January 2026), holding ASVEL to 72 and 69 points.
- Across their last 15 games, ASVEL shoot 33.2% from three and 70.7% from the free-throw line, against Madrid's 34.6% and 80.1%.
- Real Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, confirmed on 12 October to need shoulder surgery and months out, while Usman Garuba has been absent all season (reported); ASVEL's Mathis Dossou-Yovo remains sidelined with an adductor injury.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonReal MadridEstimated chance65.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 94.5, Lyon-Villeurbanne 80.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne cover +5.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Real Madrid and 15 for Lyon-Villeurbanne, across seasons and competitions.
- Real Madrid are 2-3 in the EuroLeague with 443 points scored and 439 conceded over five rounds, but have won four straight overall, including 86-76 at home to Partizan (8 October) and 98-89 at Milan (13 October).
- Lyon-Villeurbanne are 2-3 in the EuroLeague, scoring 435 and conceding 461 (92.2 per game) across five rounds, the second-worst defensive mark of these two teams.
- In last season's EuroLeague meetings Real Madrid won 85-72 at home (9 October 2025) and 80-69 away (6 January 2026), holding ASVEL to 72 and 69 points.
- Across their last 15 games, ASVEL shoot 33.2% from three and 70.7% from the free-throw line, against Madrid's 34.6% and 80.1%.
- Real Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, confirmed on 12 October to need shoulder surgery and months out, while Usman Garuba has been absent all season (reported); ASVEL's Mathis Dossou-Yovo remains sidelined with an adductor injury.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonLyon-Villeurbanne +5.5Estimated chance63.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 94.5, Lyon-Villeurbanne 80.7. Real Madrid are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 2-3 in the EuroLeague with 443 points scored and 439 conceded over five rounds, but have won four straight overall, including 86-76 at home to Partizan (8 October) and 98-89 at Milan (13 October).
- Lyon-Villeurbanne are 2-3 in the EuroLeague, scoring 435 and conceding 461 (92.2 per game) across five rounds, the second-worst defensive mark of these two teams.
- In last season's EuroLeague meetings Real Madrid won 85-72 at home (9 October 2025) and 80-69 away (6 January 2026), holding ASVEL to 72 and 69 points.
- Across their last 15 games, ASVEL shoot 33.2% from three and 70.7% from the free-throw line, against Madrid's 34.6% and 80.1%.
- Real Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, confirmed on 12 October to need shoulder surgery and months out, while Usman Garuba has been absent all season (reported); ASVEL's Mathis Dossou-Yovo remains sidelined with an adductor injury.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostReal MadridEstimated chance63.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 94.5, Lyon-Villeurbanne 80.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne cover +4.5 in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 2-3 in the EuroLeague with 443 points scored and 439 conceded over five rounds, but have won four straight overall, including 86-76 at home to Partizan (8 October) and 98-89 at Milan (13 October).
- Lyon-Villeurbanne are 2-3 in the EuroLeague, scoring 435 and conceding 461 (92.2 per game) across five rounds, the second-worst defensive mark of these two teams.
- In last season's EuroLeague meetings Real Madrid won 85-72 at home (9 October 2025) and 80-69 away (6 January 2026), holding ASVEL to 72 and 69 points.
- Across their last 15 games, ASVEL shoot 33.2% from three and 70.7% from the free-throw line, against Madrid's 34.6% and 80.1%.
- Real Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, confirmed on 12 October to need shoulder surgery and months out, while Usman Garuba has been absent all season (reported); ASVEL's Mathis Dossou-Yovo remains sidelined with an adductor injury.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonLyon-Villeurbanne +4.5Estimated chance56.7%

Points2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 94.5, Lyon-Villeurbanne 80.7. Lyon-Villeurbanne score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 2-3 in the EuroLeague with 443 points scored and 439 conceded over five rounds, but have won four straight overall, including 86-76 at home to Partizan (8 October) and 98-89 at Milan (13 October).
- Lyon-Villeurbanne are 2-3 in the EuroLeague, scoring 435 and conceding 461 (92.2 per game) across five rounds, the second-worst defensive mark of these two teams.
- In last season's EuroLeague meetings Real Madrid won 85-72 at home (9 October 2025) and 80-69 away (6 January 2026), holding ASVEL to 72 and 69 points.
- Across their last 15 games, ASVEL shoot 33.2% from three and 70.7% from the free-throw line, against Madrid's 34.6% and 80.1%.
- Real Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, confirmed on 12 October to need shoulder surgery and months out, while Usman Garuba has been absent all season (reported); ASVEL's Mathis Dossou-Yovo remains sidelined with an adductor injury.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonLyon-Villeurbanne over 19.5Estimated chance55.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 94.5, Lyon-Villeurbanne 80.7. Real Madrid score more than 23.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 2-3 in the EuroLeague with 443 points scored and 439 conceded over five rounds, but have won four straight overall, including 86-76 at home to Partizan (8 October) and 98-89 at Milan (13 October).
- Lyon-Villeurbanne are 2-3 in the EuroLeague, scoring 435 and conceding 461 (92.2 per game) across five rounds, the second-worst defensive mark of these two teams.
- In last season's EuroLeague meetings Real Madrid won 85-72 at home (9 October 2025) and 80-69 away (6 January 2026), holding ASVEL to 72 and 69 points.
- Across their last 15 games, ASVEL shoot 33.2% from three and 70.7% from the free-throw line, against Madrid's 34.6% and 80.1%.
- Real Madrid are without Gabriel Deck, confirmed on 12 October to need shoulder surgery and months out, while Usman Garuba has been absent all season (reported); ASVEL's Mathis Dossou-Yovo remains sidelined with an adductor injury.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonReal Madrid over 23.5Estimated chance55.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 15, 03:56

Selected line

174.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

53%

Chance of 175+ points

+1 pp above break-even

Over 1.94 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 53%.

Move the line main 174.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 53%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 47%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W69–80

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Real Madrid

Jan 6, 2026·EUR

W85–72

Real Madridv

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Oct 9, 2025·EUR

W81–70

Real Madridv

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Mar 20, 2025·EUR

L80–78

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Real Madrid

Dec 3, 2024·EUR

W86–79

Real Madridv

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Feb 1, 2024·EUR

W76–77

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Real Madrid

Dec 28, 2023·EUR

W71–75

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Real Madrid

Mar 3, 2023·EUR

W92–73

Real Madridv

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Dec 22, 2022·EUR

W70–58

Real Madridv

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Mar 17, 2022·EUR

W74–87

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Real Madrid

Nov 16, 2021·EUR

153.3Avg total points

9.3Avg margin

10meetings

League table

EuroLeague · Euroleague - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Real Madrid

2–340%

Lyon-Villeurbanne

2–340%

Recent Form

Real Madrid

7W 8L · last 15

at Olimpia Milano98–89 Oct 13EUR

vs Manresa120–83 Oct 11ACB

vs Partizan Mozzart Bet86–76 Oct 8EUR

at Obradoiro CAB114–107 OTOct 4ACB

at Hapoel Tel Aviv98–102 Oct 1EUR

at Anadolu Efes84–94 Sep 29EUR

vs Unicaja89–87 Sep 27ACB

at Dubai77–78 Sep 24EUR

vs Tenerife95–107 Jun 6ACB

at Tenerife118–83 Jun 4ACB

vs Tenerife97–98 Jun 2ACB

at Manresa87–94 May 29ACB

vs Baskonia83–88 May 27ACB

at Olympiacos85–92 May 24EUR

at Valencia105–90 May 22EUR

Lyon-Villeurbanne

8W 7L · last 15

vs Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet82–84 Oct 13EUR

vs Roanne96–77 Oct 11LNB

at Paris98–96 Oct 7EUR

at Gravelines-Dunkerque70–65 Oct 4LNB

vs Valencia92–105 Oct 2EUR

at Panathinaikos79–102 Sep 30EUR

at Cholet97–85 Sep 27LNB

vs Maccabi Tel Aviv84–74 Sep 24EUR

at Roanne71–73 Sep 19LNB

vs Cholet75–80 OTMay 30LNB

at Cholet65–77 May 28LNB

vs Cholet75–67 May 26LNB

at Paris76–87 May 16LNB

vs Strasbourg89–81 May 9LNB

vs JL Bourg91–77 May 5LNB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Real Madrid

Stats

5–0

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Real Madrid leads in 5 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 3–0

2-point %+4.5pp

58.1%

+4.5pp

53.6%

3-point %+1.4pp

34.6%

+1.4pp

33.2%

Free-throw %11/11 games+9.4pp

80.1%

+9.4pp

70.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s13/15 games6.6pp apart

27.5%

6.6pp apart

34.1%

Free throws per shot11/11 games3.4pp apart

37.7%

3.4pp apart

41.1%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+6.2

35.7

+6.2

29.5

Turnovers per game2.2 fewer

12.0

2.2 fewer

14.2

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.