NBLFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Brisbane Bullets115South East Melbourne105

Thu 15 Oct 2026, 08:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–1723%

Points by period: Brisbane Bullets and South East Melbourne.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Brisbane Bullets	30	26	34	25
South East Melbourne	24	31	29	21

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Both NBL sides are missing starters: Brisbane are without point guard Arnas Velicka and Sam McDaniel; South East Melbourne lose centre Jordan Hunter and regain Daniel Foster.

The expected 40-minute score, Brisbane 88.8 to South East Melbourne 93.8, makes the Phoenix the likelier winner. The prices on South East Melbourne, 1.32 to win and 1.86 to win by more than 7.5 points, ask for more than the evidence supports, so no price stands out at our numbers.

Context

Brisbane are without starting point guard Arnas Velicka until around early December and Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, while South East Melbourne are without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game and regain Daniel Foster. Those absences change how both teams cover backcourt and frontcourt minutes.

Velicka began the season as Brisbane's starting point guard and led the league in assists, but he was hurt in the 8 October loss to Cairns and scans confirmed a quad problem. The club ruled him out immediately and named an early-December return, which keeps him out of the Phoenix visit. His absence removes the team's main creator and playmaker and forces Brisbane to rebuild its backcourt through the injury-replacement market. The comeback date remains a target rather than a fixed date.
- The Bullets ruled Velicka out after an injury suffered against Cairns on 8 October and set an expected return for the start of December.
- Velicka led the NBL in assists and averaged 13.8 points and 10.2 assists over his first five games.
- The club targeted a return after the November international window.
Hunter is South East Melbourne's starting centre and a co-captain, so his absence removes size and leadership from the frontcourt. The club confirmed he will miss the trip for the birth of his son, August, and named Pat Ryan as his replacement. Ryan is a development guard rather than a like-for-like big, which likely pushes extra minutes to Yannis Morin and Akech Aliir. The cause is personal rather than injury, and no return date has been given.
- The Phoenix confirmed Hunter will miss the Brisbane game as he and his wife Ali celebrate the birth of their son, August.
- Pat Ryan was named as Hunter's replacement for the match.
- The same team news said Daniel Foster returns to the lineup for the game.
Brisbane moved quickly to cover Velicka by signing Raul Neto, a 34-year-old Brazilian guard with 464 NBA games and two Olympic appearances. The deal is registered as an injury replacement and still requires league approval. Neto is not yet in Australia, so the club confirmed development guard Josh Duach would take the roster spot for the Phoenix game. The signing strengthens the backcourt for the coming weeks but gives Brisbane no immediate help in this fixture. League approval remains pending.
- The Bullets confirmed Neto as an injury replacement player for Arnas Velicka on 13 October, subject to league approval.
- Neto, 34, played 464 NBA games across eight seasons and represented Brazil at two Olympic Games.
- The club said Josh Duach would suit up for Thursday's game while Neto makes his way to Australia.
McDaniel is a defensive-minded guard who had only recently returned from a hand issue before suffering the lower-leg problem on 7 October. The club estimated around six weeks out, which rules him beyond the Phoenix game. Josh Duach initially covered his minutes, and Brisbane then signed former Cairns forward Mawot Mag as an injury replacement to add depth. McDaniel's absence thins the perimeter defence against a Phoenix team that leans on guard scoring.
- The Bullets ruled McDaniel out after 7 October with a lower-leg injury and an estimated six-week absence.
- Josh Duach stepped into the rotation during McDaniel's absence.
- Mawot Mag, who played 16 games for Cairns last season, was signed as an injury replacement player.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. Brisbane Bullets cover +5.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Brisbane Bullets and 15 for South East Melbourne, across seasons and competitions.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonBrisbane Bullets +5.5Estimated chance72.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. South East Melbourne win in about 65 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance65.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. South East Melbourne are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance63.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. South East Melbourne are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance59.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. Brisbane Bullets cover +2.5 in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonBrisbane Bullets +2.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. Brisbane Bullets cover +7.5 (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · HandicapwonBrisbane Bullets +7.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. South East Melbourne are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. Brisbane Bullets cover +2.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Brisbane Bullets and 15 for South East Melbourne, across seasons and competitions.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostBrisbane Bullets +2.5Estimated chance55%

Points1 of 14 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. The 1st half has fewer than 98.5 points in about 75 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 98.5Estimated chance74.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. South East Melbourne score fewer than 51.5 points in the 1st half in about 73 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostSouth East Melbourne under 51.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. South East Melbourne score fewer than 100.5 points (overtime included) in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · Team PointslostSouth East Melbourne under 100.5Estimated chance71.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. The game has fewer than 192.5 points (overtime included) in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · Total PointslostUnder 192.5Estimated chance70.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. The 1st quarter has fewer than 49.5 points in about 71 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostUnder 49.5Estimated chance70.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 49.5 points in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 49.5Estimated chance69.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. Brisbane Bullets score fewer than 47.5 points in the 1st half in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostBrisbane Bullets under 47.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. South East Melbourne score fewer than 25.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonSouth East Melbourne under 25.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. South East Melbourne score fewer than 25.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostSouth East Melbourne under 25.5Estimated chance63.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. Brisbane Bullets score fewer than 92.5 points (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · Team PointslostBrisbane Bullets under 92.5Estimated chance62.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. Brisbane Bullets score fewer than 23.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostBrisbane Bullets under 23.5Estimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. South East Melbourne score fewer than 24.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostSouth East Melbourne under 24.5Estimated chance60.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. Brisbane Bullets score fewer than 23.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostBrisbane Bullets under 23.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 88.8, South East Melbourne 93.8. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 46.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 2-3 in the 2026-27 NBL, scoring 91.8 and conceding 95.8 per game over their five completed games.
- South East Melbourne are 2-4, scoring 92.0 and conceding 92.2 across six games, with 79.9% free-throw shooting and only 9.7 turnovers per game (2026-27 NBL).
- Brisbane's home games this season produced 88, 103 and 99 (the 99 in overtime) points, and their road games 91 and 78.
- Brisbane are confirmed without starting point guard Arnas Velicka (13.8 points, league-leading assists) until around early December and without Sam McDaniel for about six weeks, per club updates of 7-12 October 2026.
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without starting centre and co-captain Jordan Hunter for this game (club team news, 14 October 2026); Daniel Foster returns.
- In the three 2025-26 NBL meetings South East Melbourne beat Brisbane by 29, 27 and 13 points, though both rosters have since changed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 46.5Estimated chance57.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 15, 03:56

Selected line

192.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

30%

Chance of 193+ points

23 pp below break-even

Over 1.89 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 30%.

Move the line main 192.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 30%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 71%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L107–78

South East Melbournev

Brisbane Bullets

Dec 20, 2025·NBL

L76–103

Brisbane Bulletsv

South East Melbourne

Nov 20, 2025·NBL

L86–109

Brisbane Bulletsv

South East Melbourne

Oct 25, 2025·NBL

L105–86

South East Melbournev

Brisbane Bullets

Jan 11, 2025·NBL

W116–108

Brisbane Bulletsv

South East Melbourne

Dec 12, 2024·NBL

W85–87

South East Melbournev

Brisbane Bullets

Oct 12, 2024·NBL

W95–83

Brisbane Bulletsv

South East Melbourne

Dec 30, 2023·NBL

W108–92

Brisbane Bulletsv

South East Melbourne

Nov 2, 2023·NBL

L96–73

South East Melbournev

Brisbane Bullets

Oct 21, 2023·NBL

W79–84

South East Melbournev

Brisbane Bullets

Jan 16, 2023·NBL

185.6Avg total points

16.4Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Brisbane Bullets

2–340%

South East Melbourne

2–433%

Recent Form

Brisbane Bullets

2W 13L · last 15

at Cairns Taipans91–97 Oct 8NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers99–109 OTOct 3NBL

at Sydney78–93 Sep 30NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks103–95 Sep 25NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers88–85 Sep 22NBL

vs Sydney77–117 Feb 20NBL

at Perth75–94 Feb 13NBL

vs Cairns Taipans72–81 Feb 8NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers70–114 Feb 6NBL

vs Adelaide74–107 Jan 28NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks75–113 Jan 26NBL

at Melbourne United66–98 Jan 21NBL

at Sydney80–95 Jan 15NBL

at Cairns Taipans83–88 Jan 12NBL

vs Adelaide86–97 Jan 4NBL

South East Melbourne

7W 8L · last 15

vs Melbourne United99–104 Oct 10NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks113–96 Oct 4NBL

at Perth88–92 Oct 2NBL

vs Melbourne United61–86 Sep 24NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers91–96 Sep 21NBL

at Perth100–79 Sep 19NBL

at Adelaide96–108 Mar 17NBL

vs Adelaide101–92 Mar 14NBL

at Adelaide97–104 Mar 10NBL

vs Perth111–94 Mar 4NBL

at Melbourne United91–95 Feb 19NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers120–104 Feb 14NBL

vs Sydney88–114 Feb 8NBL

at New Zealand Breakers114–83 Feb 5NBL

at Adelaide97–77 Jan 31NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Brisbane Bullets

14 games

Stats

0–5

South East Melbourne

South East Melbourne leads in 5 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %13/15 games+2.0pp

51.2%

+2.0pp

53.2%

3-point %13/15 games+3.4pp

27.4%

+3.4pp

30.8%

Free-throw %13/15 games+13.6pp

66.3%

+13.6pp

79.9%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s13/15 games5.0pp apart

30.4%

5.0pp apart

35.4%

Free throws per shot13/15 games0.3pp apart

25.5%

0.3pp apart

25.2%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game13/15 games+2.1

35.3

+2.1

37.4

Turnovers per game2.9 fewer

12.6

2.9 fewer

9.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.