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Predictions graded

Sydney101New Zealand Breakers102

Wed 14 Oct 2026, 08:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–1139%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Sydney and New Zealand Breakers.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Sydney	29	32	12	28
New Zealand Breakers	31	20	24	27

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Sydney's home scoring against a Breakers side travelling again: the expected score after 40 minutes is Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6, and Sydney should win.

Breakers top scorer Jackson Parker has not appeared in a box score since Oct 4, an observation rather than a confirmed absence. Under 95.5 combined first-half points at 1.85 is the one quoted price with an edge.

Context

Both teams are on roughly three days' rest — Sydney since a 78-84 home loss to Adelaide on Oct 11, the Breakers since a 100-84 loss at Perth on Oct 10. Breakers scorer Jackson Parker has not appeared in a box score since Oct 4, an observation rather than a confirmed absence.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Half Total PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 95.5

1.85fair 1.57

Market 54.1% · BetBugs 63.6%

+9.5ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. The 1st half has fewer than 95.5 points in about 64 of 100 games like this. Sydney's home scoring, rebounding advantage and lower turnover rate point to a modest edge in the mid-90s, while New Zealand's away scoring and turnover issues suggest a total in the high 80s. The current season samples, though small, support this gap.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. Sydney win in about 74 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSydneyEstimated chance73.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. Sydney are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostSydneyEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. Sydney are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonSydneyEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. New Zealand Breakers cover +12.5 (overtime included) in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · HandicapwonNew Zealand Breakers +12.5Estimated chance63.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. Sydney are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonSydneyEstimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. New Zealand Breakers cover +3.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Sydney and 15 for New Zealand Breakers, across seasons and competitions.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonNew Zealand Breakers +3.5Estimated chance59.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. New Zealand Breakers cover +3.5 in the 1st quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonNew Zealand Breakers +3.5Estimated chance58.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. New Zealand Breakers cover +6.5 in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostNew Zealand Breakers +6.5Estimated chance58.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. Sydney are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostSydneyEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. Sydney are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostSydneyEstimated chance56.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. New Zealand Breakers cover +3.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Sydney and 15 for New Zealand Breakers, across seasons and competitions.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostNew Zealand Breakers +3.5Estimated chance55.2%

Points2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. New Zealand Breakers score fewer than 43.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 100 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonNew Zealand Breakers under 43.5Estimated chance100%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. The 1st half has fewer than 95.5 points in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 95.5Estimated chance63.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. Sydney score fewer than 50.5 points in the 1st half in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostSydney under 50.5Estimated chance62.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. Sydney score fewer than 25.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostSydney under 25.5Estimated chance62.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. The 1st quarter has fewer than 47.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostUnder 47.5Estimated chance59.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. Sydney score fewer than 98.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · Team PointslostSydney under 98.5Estimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Sydney 95.7, New Zealand Breakers 87.6. New Zealand Breakers score more than 86.5 points (overtime included) in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Sydney averages 100.8 points in four 2026-27 NBL home games, including 121 vs Illawarra on Sep 27 and 111 vs Cairns on Sep 20.
- New Zealand averages 87.5 points in four 2026-27 NBL away games, most recently scoring 84 at Perth on Oct 10.
- Sydney shoots 60.5% on two-pointers (392/648) over 15 tracked games, while New Zealand shoots 56.6% (351/620) over 14.
- Sydney averages 37.7 rebounds and 9.6 turnovers per game (15 games) versus New Zealand's 32.6 rebounds and 11.5 turnovers (14 games).
- In 2025-26 home meetings, Sydney beat New Zealand 79-72 on Nov 9 and 97-75 on Oct 4.
BetBugs · Team PointswonNew Zealand Breakers over 86.5Estimated chance55.1%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 14, 05:34

Selected line

185.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

46%

Chance of 186+ points

6 pp below break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 46%.

Move the line main 185.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 46%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 54%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W62–103

New Zealand Breakersv Sydney

Sydney

Jan 9, 2026·NBL

L95–90

New Zealand Breakersv Sydney

Sydney

Dec 3, 2025·NBL

W79–72

Sydneyv

New Zealand Breakers

Nov 9, 2025·NBL

W97–75

Sydneyv

New Zealand Breakers

Oct 4, 2025·NBL

W84–92

New Zealand Breakersv Sydney

Sydney

Dec 20, 2024·NBL

W83–98

New Zealand Breakersv Sydney

Sydney

Dec 7, 2024·NBL

L89–93

Sydneyv

New Zealand Breakers

Oct 27, 2024·NBL

L76–83

Sydneyv

New Zealand Breakers

Feb 28, 2024·NBL

W105–76

Sydneyv

New Zealand Breakers

Jan 14, 2024·NBL

L109–101

New Zealand Breakersv Sydney

Sydney

Dec 22, 2023·NBL

176.2Avg total points

14.6Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Sydney

3–175%

New Zealand Breakers

3–350%

Recent Form

Sydney

12W 3L · last 15

vs Adelaide78–84 Oct 11NBL

vs Brisbane Bullets93–78 Sep 30NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks121–100 Sep 27NBL

vs Cairns Taipans111–90 Sep 20NBL

vs Adelaide113–101 OTApr 5NBL

at Adelaide91–92 Apr 1NBL

vs Adelaide106–93 Mar 29NBL

at Adelaide89–91 Mar 27NBL

vs Adelaide112–68 Mar 21NBL

at Perth89–75 Mar 14NBL

vs Perth105–104 Mar 11NBL

at Brisbane Bullets117–77 Feb 20NBL

vs Perth102–84 Feb 15NBL

at Illawarra Hawks120–94 Feb 13NBL

at South East Melbourne114–88 Feb 8NBL

New Zealand Breakers

7W 8L · last 15

at Perth84–100 Oct 10NBL

at Adelaide88–72 Oct 4NBL

vs Cairns Taipans98–75 Sep 30NBL

at Perth93–97 Sep 26NBL

at Brisbane Bullets85–88 Sep 22NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks95–81 Sep 20NBL

at Adelaide111–107 Feb 22NBL

vs Cairns Taipans115–84 Feb 19NBL

at Adelaide89–92 Feb 14NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks106–95 Feb 7NBL

vs South East Melbourne83–114 Feb 5NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers89–91 Feb 1NBL

vs Melbourne United97–95 Jan 30NBL

vs Adelaide110–112 OTJan 23NBL

at South East Melbourne116–123 Jan 21NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Sydney

Stats

4–1

New Zealand Breakers

14 games

Sydney leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+3.9pp

60.5%

+3.9pp

56.6%

3-point %+1.8pp

38.0%

+1.8pp

39.8%

Free-throw %+2.7pp

75.7%

+2.7pp

73.0%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.7pp apart

32.5%

1.7pp apart

30.8%

Free throws per shot0.2pp apart

31.7%

0.2pp apart

31.5%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+5.1

37.7

+5.1

32.6

Turnovers per game1.9 fewer

9.6

1.9 fewer

11.5

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.