Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: San Pablo Burgos 81.2, Hapoel Jerusalem 86.7. San Pablo Burgos cover +6.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 77 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for San Pablo Burgos and 14 for Hapoel Jerusalem, across seasons and competitions.
- Burgos have conceded 93.8 points per game over their last five completed games (27 Sep-11 Oct 2026), including 96 in Bilbao on 11 October.
- In EuroCup play Burgos scored 85 at home to Cedevita Olimpija (30 Sep) and 80 away at Aris (7 Oct), an average of 82.5 against 87 conceded.
- Hapoel Jerusalem are 2-0 in EuroCup Group A with a +32 differential, conceding 64 at Cedevita (6 Oct) and 73 at home to Rostock (29 Sep).
- Jerusalem's shooting profile is stronger: 54.7% on two-pointers, 36.0% on three-pointers, 78.6% free throws and a 0.379 free-throw rate across 13-14 tracked games, versus Burgos at 53.8%, 35.7%, 73.7% and 0.289.
- Jerusalem average 10.9 turnovers per game over 15 tracked games compared with Burgos's 13.5 over 15, roughly three extra possessions conceded per game.
- Shake Milton and David Roddy (23.3 combined points per game over nine appearances) are absent from Jerusalem's latest box score of 11 October; this is an observation, not a confirmed absence.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Handicapwon
San Pablo Burgos +6.5Estimated chance76.8%
San Pablo Burgos +6.5Estimated chance76.8%























