EuroLeagueFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Fenerbahce99Zalgiris Kaunas80

Tue 13 Oct 2026, 17:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: Fenerbahce and Zalgiris Kaunas.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Fenerbahce	27	23	28	21
Zalgiris Kaunas	14	29	13	24

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Fenerbahce's home defence against Zalgiris' shooting is the Round 5 tension, and the home side is favoured: ahead at the end of 40 minutes in about 66 of 100 games like this and winners with overtime included in about 69 of 100.

Of the prices available, Zalgiris to score more than 77.5 points at 1.89 is the one that offers something.

Context

Zalgiris are without Nigel Williams-Goss, who has a hamstring injury, and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu, while Azuolas Tubelis is a game-time decision; Fenerbahce are home at 3-1 in the EuroLeague after a 92-74 loss at Panathinaikos on 8 October 2026.

Williams-Goss sustained a hamstring injury at the end of Žalgiris' EuroLeague opener and was initially expected to miss about two weeks. He remains in Lithuania for this game, leaving Žalgiris without a guard option for the visit to Fenerbahçe.
- Nigel Williams-Goss did not travel with Žalgiris for the trip to Istanbul.
- He is ruled out for the Round 5 game after a hamstring injury.
Tubelis has been managing knee discomfort ahead of the Turkish trip. Žalgiris expect the forward to be available, but his involvement remains uncertain until game time.
- Azuolas Tubelis missed Žalgiris' most recent domestic game because of knee discomfort.
- Žalgiris' coaching staff is optimistic that he will be available in Istanbul.
Akobundu-Ehiogu remained in Lithuania and cannot feature in this road game. His absence removes one Žalgiris option from the travelling group.
- Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu did not travel with Žalgiris to Istanbul.
- He is ruled out for the Round 5 game at Fenerbahçe.
The Round 4 defeat followed Fenerbahçe's three-win start and is the immediate EuroLeague form backdrop for this home game. It does not establish any change to the team's availability.
- Fenerbahçe collected three victories over the first four EuroLeague rounds.
- Their most recent EuroLeague game ended in a 92-74 loss at Panathinaikos.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Team PointswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Zalgiris Kaunas over 77.5

1.89fair 1.77

Market 52.9% · BetBugs 56.4%

+3.5ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. Zalgiris Kaunas score more than 77.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this. Fenerbahce's home defense and better ball control point to a score in the mid-80s, while Zalgiris' strong shooting keeps them in the high-70s despite missing Williams-Goss. The recent Istanbul meetings also support Fenerbahce winning by roughly a half-dozen points.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. Fenerbahce cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 70 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Fenerbahce and 15 for Zalgiris Kaunas, across seasons and competitions.
- Fenerbahce are 3-1 in the EuroLeague, averaging 82.0 points scored and 75.5 allowed over four games through 8 October 2026.
- Zalgiris are 2-2 in the EuroLeague, averaging 85.0 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 9 October 2026.
- In the two most recent EuroLeague meetings in Istanbul (28 and 30 April 2026), Fenerbahce scored 89 and 86 while Zalgiris scored 78 and 74.
- Across 15 tracked games, Zalgiris shoot 60.8% on two-pointers and 39.8% on three-pointers but average 13.2 turnovers; Fenerbahce average 11.3 turnovers.
- Fenerbahce's three home EuroLeague games this season produced 84.7 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game.
- Zalgiris guard Nigel Williams-Goss is confirmed out with a hamstring injury (12 October 2026), and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu is also out; Azuolas Tubelis is only a watch.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonFenerbahce +2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. Fenerbahce win in about 69 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Fenerbahce are 3-1 in the EuroLeague, averaging 82.0 points scored and 75.5 allowed over four games through 8 October 2026.
- Zalgiris are 2-2 in the EuroLeague, averaging 85.0 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 9 October 2026.
- In the two most recent EuroLeague meetings in Istanbul (28 and 30 April 2026), Fenerbahce scored 89 and 86 while Zalgiris scored 78 and 74.
- Across 15 tracked games, Zalgiris shoot 60.8% on two-pointers and 39.8% on three-pointers but average 13.2 turnovers; Fenerbahce average 11.3 turnovers.
- Fenerbahce's three home EuroLeague games this season produced 84.7 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game.
- Zalgiris guard Nigel Williams-Goss is confirmed out with a hamstring injury (12 October 2026), and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu is also out; Azuolas Tubelis is only a watch.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFenerbahceEstimated chance68.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. Fenerbahce are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Fenerbahce are 3-1 in the EuroLeague, averaging 82.0 points scored and 75.5 allowed over four games through 8 October 2026.
- Zalgiris are 2-2 in the EuroLeague, averaging 85.0 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 9 October 2026.
- In the two most recent EuroLeague meetings in Istanbul (28 and 30 April 2026), Fenerbahce scored 89 and 86 while Zalgiris scored 78 and 74.
- Across 15 tracked games, Zalgiris shoot 60.8% on two-pointers and 39.8% on three-pointers but average 13.2 turnovers; Fenerbahce average 11.3 turnovers.
- Fenerbahce's three home EuroLeague games this season produced 84.7 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game.
- Zalgiris guard Nigel Williams-Goss is confirmed out with a hamstring injury (12 October 2026), and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu is also out; Azuolas Tubelis is only a watch.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonFenerbahceEstimated chance66.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. Fenerbahce cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Fenerbahce and 15 for Zalgiris Kaunas, across seasons and competitions.
- Fenerbahce are 3-1 in the EuroLeague, averaging 82.0 points scored and 75.5 allowed over four games through 8 October 2026.
- Zalgiris are 2-2 in the EuroLeague, averaging 85.0 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 9 October 2026.
- In the two most recent EuroLeague meetings in Istanbul (28 and 30 April 2026), Fenerbahce scored 89 and 86 while Zalgiris scored 78 and 74.
- Across 15 tracked games, Zalgiris shoot 60.8% on two-pointers and 39.8% on three-pointers but average 13.2 turnovers; Fenerbahce average 11.3 turnovers.
- Fenerbahce's three home EuroLeague games this season produced 84.7 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game.
- Zalgiris guard Nigel Williams-Goss is confirmed out with a hamstring injury (12 October 2026), and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu is also out; Azuolas Tubelis is only a watch.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostFenerbahce +0.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. Fenerbahce are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Fenerbahce are 3-1 in the EuroLeague, averaging 82.0 points scored and 75.5 allowed over four games through 8 October 2026.
- Zalgiris are 2-2 in the EuroLeague, averaging 85.0 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 9 October 2026.
- In the two most recent EuroLeague meetings in Istanbul (28 and 30 April 2026), Fenerbahce scored 89 and 86 while Zalgiris scored 78 and 74.
- Across 15 tracked games, Zalgiris shoot 60.8% on two-pointers and 39.8% on three-pointers but average 13.2 turnovers; Fenerbahce average 11.3 turnovers.
- Fenerbahce's three home EuroLeague games this season produced 84.7 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game.
- Zalgiris guard Nigel Williams-Goss is confirmed out with a hamstring injury (12 October 2026), and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu is also out; Azuolas Tubelis is only a watch.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonFenerbahceEstimated chance61.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. Fenerbahce are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Fenerbahce are 3-1 in the EuroLeague, averaging 82.0 points scored and 75.5 allowed over four games through 8 October 2026.
- Zalgiris are 2-2 in the EuroLeague, averaging 85.0 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 9 October 2026.
- In the two most recent EuroLeague meetings in Istanbul (28 and 30 April 2026), Fenerbahce scored 89 and 86 while Zalgiris scored 78 and 74.
- Across 15 tracked games, Zalgiris shoot 60.8% on two-pointers and 39.8% on three-pointers but average 13.2 turnovers; Fenerbahce average 11.3 turnovers.
- Fenerbahce's three home EuroLeague games this season produced 84.7 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game.
- Zalgiris guard Nigel Williams-Goss is confirmed out with a hamstring injury (12 October 2026), and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu is also out; Azuolas Tubelis is only a watch.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostFenerbahceEstimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. Zalgiris Kaunas cover +2.5 in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Fenerbahce are 3-1 in the EuroLeague, averaging 82.0 points scored and 75.5 allowed over four games through 8 October 2026.
- Zalgiris are 2-2 in the EuroLeague, averaging 85.0 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 9 October 2026.
- In the two most recent EuroLeague meetings in Istanbul (28 and 30 April 2026), Fenerbahce scored 89 and 86 while Zalgiris scored 78 and 74.
- Across 15 tracked games, Zalgiris shoot 60.8% on two-pointers and 39.8% on three-pointers but average 13.2 turnovers; Fenerbahce average 11.3 turnovers.
- Fenerbahce's three home EuroLeague games this season produced 84.7 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game.
- Zalgiris guard Nigel Williams-Goss is confirmed out with a hamstring injury (12 October 2026), and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu is also out; Azuolas Tubelis is only a watch.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostZalgiris Kaunas +2.5Estimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. Fenerbahce are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Fenerbahce are 3-1 in the EuroLeague, averaging 82.0 points scored and 75.5 allowed over four games through 8 October 2026.
- Zalgiris are 2-2 in the EuroLeague, averaging 85.0 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 9 October 2026.
- In the two most recent EuroLeague meetings in Istanbul (28 and 30 April 2026), Fenerbahce scored 89 and 86 while Zalgiris scored 78 and 74.
- Across 15 tracked games, Zalgiris shoot 60.8% on two-pointers and 39.8% on three-pointers but average 13.2 turnovers; Fenerbahce average 11.3 turnovers.
- Fenerbahce's three home EuroLeague games this season produced 84.7 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game.
- Zalgiris guard Nigel Williams-Goss is confirmed out with a hamstring injury (12 October 2026), and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu is also out; Azuolas Tubelis is only a watch.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonFenerbahceEstimated chance55.4%

Points3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. Fenerbahce score more than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Fenerbahce are 3-1 in the EuroLeague, averaging 82.0 points scored and 75.5 allowed over four games through 8 October 2026.
- Zalgiris are 2-2 in the EuroLeague, averaging 85.0 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 9 October 2026.
- In the two most recent EuroLeague meetings in Istanbul (28 and 30 April 2026), Fenerbahce scored 89 and 86 while Zalgiris scored 78 and 74.
- Across 15 tracked games, Zalgiris shoot 60.8% on two-pointers and 39.8% on three-pointers but average 13.2 turnovers; Fenerbahce average 11.3 turnovers.
- Fenerbahce's three home EuroLeague games this season produced 84.7 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game.
- Zalgiris guard Nigel Williams-Goss is confirmed out with a hamstring injury (12 October 2026), and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu is also out; Azuolas Tubelis is only a watch.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonFenerbahce over 20.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.89
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. Zalgiris Kaunas score more than 77.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Fenerbahce are 3-1 in the EuroLeague, averaging 82.0 points scored and 75.5 allowed over four games through 8 October 2026.
- Zalgiris are 2-2 in the EuroLeague, averaging 85.0 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 9 October 2026.
- In the two most recent EuroLeague meetings in Istanbul (28 and 30 April 2026), Fenerbahce scored 89 and 86 while Zalgiris scored 78 and 74.
- Across 15 tracked games, Zalgiris shoot 60.8% on two-pointers and 39.8% on three-pointers but average 13.2 turnovers; Fenerbahce average 11.3 turnovers.
- Fenerbahce's three home EuroLeague games this season produced 84.7 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game.
- Zalgiris guard Nigel Williams-Goss is confirmed out with a hamstring injury (12 October 2026), and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu is also out; Azuolas Tubelis is only a watch.
BetBugs · Team PointswonZalgiris Kaunas over 77.5Estimated chance56.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Fenerbahce 85.0, Zalgiris Kaunas 78.9. The game has more than 162.5 points (overtime included) in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Fenerbahce are 3-1 in the EuroLeague, averaging 82.0 points scored and 75.5 allowed over four games through 8 October 2026.
- Zalgiris are 2-2 in the EuroLeague, averaging 85.0 points scored and 83.3 allowed over four games through 9 October 2026.
- In the two most recent EuroLeague meetings in Istanbul (28 and 30 April 2026), Fenerbahce scored 89 and 86 while Zalgiris scored 78 and 74.
- Across 15 tracked games, Zalgiris shoot 60.8% on two-pointers and 39.8% on three-pointers but average 13.2 turnovers; Fenerbahce average 11.3 turnovers.
- Fenerbahce's three home EuroLeague games this season produced 84.7 points scored and 70.0 allowed per game.
- Zalgiris guard Nigel Williams-Goss is confirmed out with a hamstring injury (12 October 2026), and Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu is also out; Azuolas Tubelis is only a watch.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 162.5Estimated chance55.1%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 12, 19:28

Selected line

162.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

55%

Chance of 163+ points

+3 pp above break-even

Over 1.93 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 55%.

Move the line main 162.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 55%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 45%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W90–94

Zalgiris Kaunasv

Fenerbahce

May 8, 2026·EUROT

L81–78

Zalgiris Kaunasv

Fenerbahce

May 6, 2026·EUR

W86–74

Fenerbahcev

Zalgiris Kaunas

Apr 30, 2026·EUR

W89–78

Fenerbahcev

Zalgiris Kaunas

Apr 28, 2026·EUR

L82–92

Fenerbahcev

Zalgiris Kaunas

Mar 27, 2026·EUR

L84–81

Zalgiris Kaunasv

Fenerbahce

Oct 3, 2025·EUR

W98–86

Fenerbahcev

Zalgiris Kaunas

Jan 17, 2025·EUR

W65–72

Zalgiris Kaunasv

Fenerbahce

Nov 15, 2024·EUR

L98–75

Zalgiris Kaunasv

Fenerbahce

Jan 19, 2024·EUR

W80–78

Fenerbahcev

Zalgiris Kaunas

Dec 20, 2023·EUR

166.1Avg total points

8.7Avg margin

10meetings

League table

EuroLeague · Euroleague - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Fenerbahce

3–175%

Zalgiris Kaunas

2–250%

Recent Form

Fenerbahce

11W 4L · last 15

at Cayirova100–85 Oct 10BAS

at Panathinaikos74–92 Oct 8EUR

vs Korfez Basket85–84 Oct 4BAS

vs Dubai76–66 Oct 2EUR

vs Bayern100–76 Sep 29EUR

at Bahcesehir Kol.83–98 Sep 27BAS

vs Virtus Bologna78–68 Sep 25EUR

vs Besiktas72–59 Sep 22SUP

at Besiktas77–75 Jun 19BAS

at Besiktas82–71 Jun 17BAS

vs Besiktas93–68 Jun 15BAS

vs Besiktas80–88 Jun 13BAS

at Anadolu Efes102–93 OTJun 7BAS

at Anadolu Efes93–102 Jun 5BAS

vs Anadolu Efes73–72 Jun 3BAS

Zalgiris Kaunas

13W 2L · last 15

at Nevezis80–76 Oct 11LKL

at Barcelona88–81 Oct 9EUR

vs Lietkabelis97–68 Oct 4LKL

at Paris78–82 Oct 1EUR

vs Olympiacos91–93 Sep 29EUR

vs Siauliai101–82 Sep 27LKL

at Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet83–77 Sep 24EUR

at Neptunas93–69 Sep 20LKL

at Gargzdai98–77 Sep 17LKL

vs Juventus95–77 Jun 12LKL

at Juventus100–69 Jun 9LKL

vs Juventus107–75 Jun 7LKL

vs Lietkabelis103–93 May 31LKL

at Lietkabelis95–75 May 28LKL

vs Lietkabelis85–75 May 26LKL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Fenerbahce

Stats

3–2

Zalgiris Kaunas

Fenerbahce leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+4.7pp

56.1%

+4.7pp

60.8%

3-point %+5.8pp

34.0%

+5.8pp

39.8%

Free-throw %13/13 games+0.5pp

75.1%

+0.5pp

74.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.0pp apart

32.6%

2.0pp apart

30.6%

Free throws per shot13/13 games9.6pp apart

44.0%

9.6pp apart

34.4%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+0.1

34.4

+0.1

34.3

Turnovers per game1.9 fewer

11.3

1.9 fewer

13.2

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.