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Predictions graded

Venezia86Virtus Bologna93

Sun 11 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–420%

Points by period: Venezia and Virtus Bologna.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Venezia	29	22	21	14
Virtus Bologna	20	25	24	24

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Venezia and Virtus Bologna are both 2-0 in Lega A, and the 40-minute projection is a single point apart, with Venezia's four wins in the last five meetings in Venice tipping it their way.

Venezia edge it in about 53 of 100 games including overtime. No quoted price stands out at our numbers: Virtus Bologna +1.5 at 1.75 is not one to take.

Context

Venezia had 4.0 days and Virtus Bologna 3.0 days since their midweek European road games, and Virtus have a centre back from a right thigh muscle problem; both are modest factors around an otherwise balanced matchup.

Kevin Kokila, a 25-year-old centre, missed Virtus Bologna's first three EuroLeague rounds with a muscle injury in his right thigh. He was cleared for the Round 4 trip to Bayern Munich, was named in the twelve by coach Alex Mumbru and played a little more than seven minutes off the bench, his first EuroLeague appearance. His return gives Virtus another frontcourt option for the league visit to Venice. The club has not issued a separate availability update for the Venice game, so his exact role and minutes remain uncertain.
- Kevin Kokila was absent for Virtus Bologna's first three EuroLeague rounds with a muscle injury in his right thigh.
- He returned among the available players for the 8 October game at Bayern Munich, his first EuroLeague appearance, playing a little more than seven minutes.
- Virtus Bologna won the EuroLeague game at Bayern Munich.
Venezia and Virtus Bologna both came through European road games in the days before this league fixture. Venezia lost at Cluj-Napoca on 7 October, and Virtus Bologna won at Bayern Munich on 8 October before making the trip to Venice. That quick turnaround means both coaching staffs, Neven Spahija and Alex Mumbru, may adjust their rotations. Neither club has set out a minutes plan for the Venice meeting, so the effect on the line-ups is uncertain.
- Reyer Venezia lost 98-92 at CS Universitatea Cluj-Napoca in the EuroCup on 7 October.
- Virtus Bologna played at Bayern Munich in the EuroLeague on 8 October and won that game.
- Virtus Bologna followed the Bayern Munich trip with another away game at Venice on 11 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Venezia 85.8, Virtus Bologna 84.8. Venezia cover +6.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 82 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Venezia and 15 for Virtus Bologna, across seasons and competitions.
- Venezia are 2-0 in Lega A this season, scoring 86.0 and allowing 77.5 per game in wins over Trieste (87-82, 4 Oct) and Cantu (85-73, 26 Sep).
- Virtus Bologna are 2-0 in Lega A, scoring 94.0 and allowing 79.0 per game in wins over Maxima Roma (98-89, 4 Oct) and at Varese (90-69, 27 Sep).
- In all competitions this season, Venezia average 92.2 points and shoot 38.2% from three (124/325), while Virtus average 86.0 points and shoot 57.4% inside the arc (326/568).
- Virtus rebound better (33.9 vs 31.3 per game) but turn it over more (12.6 vs 9.8 per game) across the tracked samples.
- Venezia have had one more rest day (4.0 days since 7 Oct EuroCup loss at Cluj-Napoca) than Virtus (3.0 days since 8 Oct EuroLeague win at Bayern Munich).
- At home in the last five h2h meetings in Venice, Venezia have won four, including 90-83 and 89-85 in June 2026.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonVenezia +6.5Estimated chance82.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Venezia 85.8, Virtus Bologna 84.8. Venezia cover +2.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Venezia and 15 for Virtus Bologna, across seasons and competitions.
- Venezia are 2-0 in Lega A this season, scoring 86.0 and allowing 77.5 per game in wins over Trieste (87-82, 4 Oct) and Cantu (85-73, 26 Sep).
- Virtus Bologna are 2-0 in Lega A, scoring 94.0 and allowing 79.0 per game in wins over Maxima Roma (98-89, 4 Oct) and at Varese (90-69, 27 Sep).
- In all competitions this season, Venezia average 92.2 points and shoot 38.2% from three (124/325), while Virtus average 86.0 points and shoot 57.4% inside the arc (326/568).
- Virtus rebound better (33.9 vs 31.3 per game) but turn it over more (12.6 vs 9.8 per game) across the tracked samples.
- Venezia have had one more rest day (4.0 days since 7 Oct EuroCup loss at Cluj-Napoca) than Virtus (3.0 days since 8 Oct EuroLeague win at Bayern Munich).
- At home in the last five h2h meetings in Venice, Venezia have won four, including 90-83 and 89-85 in June 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostVenezia +2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Venezia 85.8, Virtus Bologna 84.8. Venezia win in about 53 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Venezia are 2-0 in Lega A this season, scoring 86.0 and allowing 77.5 per game in wins over Trieste (87-82, 4 Oct) and Cantu (85-73, 26 Sep).
- Virtus Bologna are 2-0 in Lega A, scoring 94.0 and allowing 79.0 per game in wins over Maxima Roma (98-89, 4 Oct) and at Varese (90-69, 27 Sep).
- In all competitions this season, Venezia average 92.2 points and shoot 38.2% from three (124/325), while Virtus average 86.0 points and shoot 57.4% inside the arc (326/568).
- Virtus rebound better (33.9 vs 31.3 per game) but turn it over more (12.6 vs 9.8 per game) across the tracked samples.
- Venezia have had one more rest day (4.0 days since 7 Oct EuroCup loss at Cluj-Napoca) than Virtus (3.0 days since 8 Oct EuroLeague win at Bayern Munich).
- At home in the last five h2h meetings in Venice, Venezia have won four, including 90-83 and 89-85 in June 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVeneziaEstimated chance53.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Venezia 85.8, Virtus Bologna 84.8. Venezia are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 51 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia are 2-0 in Lega A this season, scoring 86.0 and allowing 77.5 per game in wins over Trieste (87-82, 4 Oct) and Cantu (85-73, 26 Sep).
- Virtus Bologna are 2-0 in Lega A, scoring 94.0 and allowing 79.0 per game in wins over Maxima Roma (98-89, 4 Oct) and at Varese (90-69, 27 Sep).
- In all competitions this season, Venezia average 92.2 points and shoot 38.2% from three (124/325), while Virtus average 86.0 points and shoot 57.4% inside the arc (326/568).
- Virtus rebound better (33.9 vs 31.3 per game) but turn it over more (12.6 vs 9.8 per game) across the tracked samples.
- Venezia have had one more rest day (4.0 days since 7 Oct EuroCup loss at Cluj-Napoca) than Virtus (3.0 days since 8 Oct EuroLeague win at Bayern Munich).
- At home in the last five h2h meetings in Venice, Venezia have won four, including 90-83 and 89-85 in June 2026.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostVeneziaEstimated chance50.8%

Points0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Venezia 85.8, Virtus Bologna 84.8. Virtus Bologna score fewer than 43.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia are 2-0 in Lega A this season, scoring 86.0 and allowing 77.5 per game in wins over Trieste (87-82, 4 Oct) and Cantu (85-73, 26 Sep).
- Virtus Bologna are 2-0 in Lega A, scoring 94.0 and allowing 79.0 per game in wins over Maxima Roma (98-89, 4 Oct) and at Varese (90-69, 27 Sep).
- In all competitions this season, Venezia average 92.2 points and shoot 38.2% from three (124/325), while Virtus average 86.0 points and shoot 57.4% inside the arc (326/568).
- Virtus rebound better (33.9 vs 31.3 per game) but turn it over more (12.6 vs 9.8 per game) across the tracked samples.
- Venezia have had one more rest day (4.0 days since 7 Oct EuroCup loss at Cluj-Napoca) than Virtus (3.0 days since 8 Oct EuroLeague win at Bayern Munich).
- At home in the last five h2h meetings in Venice, Venezia have won four, including 90-83 and 89-85 in June 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostVirtus Bologna under 43.5Estimated chance55.8%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 10, 18:33

Selected line

172.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

48%

Chance of 173+ points

6 pp below break-even

Over 1.87 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 48%.

Move the line main 172.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 53%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W90–83

Veneziav

Virtus Bologna

Jun 6, 2026·LEG

W89–85

Veneziav

Virtus Bologna

Jun 4, 2026·LEG

L98–79

Virtus Bolognav Venezia

Venezia

Jun 1, 2026·LEG

W83–91

Virtus Bolognav Venezia

Venezia

May 30, 2026·LEG

W82–86

Virtus Bolognav Venezia

Venezia

Apr 5, 2026·LEG

L75–81

Veneziav

Virtus Bologna

Jan 11, 2026·LEG

L86–84

Virtus Bolognav Venezia

Venezia

May 27, 2025·LEG

W84–78

Veneziav

Virtus Bologna

May 25, 2025·LEG

W89–82

Veneziav

Virtus Bologna

May 23, 2025·LEG

L77–75

Virtus Bolognav Venezia

Venezia

May 20, 2025·LEG

167.7Avg total points

6.5Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Lega Basket Serie A · Lega A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Venezia

2–0100%

Virtus Bologna

2–0100%

Recent Form

Venezia

9W 6L · last 15

at Cluj-Napoca92–98 Oct 7EUR

at Trieste87–82 Oct 4LEG

vs Frankfurt104–72 Sep 29EUR

vs Cantu85–73 Sep 26LEG

vs Olimpia Milano87–94 OTSep 20LEG

at Tortona98–90 Sep 19LEG

vs Olimpia Milano72–86 Jun 18LEG

vs Olimpia Milano109–97 Jun 16LEG

at Olimpia Milano79–92 Jun 13LEG

at Olimpia Milano80–100 Jun 11LEG

vs Virtus Bologna90–83 Jun 6LEG

vs Virtus Bologna89–85 Jun 4LEG

at Virtus Bologna79–98 Jun 1LEG

at Virtus Bologna91–83 May 30LEG

vs Tortona89–83 May 26LEG

Virtus Bologna

7W 8L · last 15

at Bayern94–87 Oct 8EUR

vs Maxima Roma98–89 Oct 4LEG

vs Olympiacos96–94 Oct 1EUR

at Olimpia Milano85–87 Sep 29EUR

at Varese90–69 Sep 27LEG

at Fenerbahce68–78 Sep 25EUR

at Olimpia Milano71–80 Sep 19LEG

at Venezia83–90 Jun 6LEG

at Venezia85–89 Jun 4LEG

vs Venezia98–79 Jun 1LEG

vs Venezia83–91 May 30LEG

vs Trento106–95 May 26LEG

at Trento90–81 May 24LEG

at Trento85–102 May 22LEG

vs Trento84–87 May 19LEG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Venezia

Stats

3–2

Virtus Bologna

Venezia leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %14/15 games+5.1pp

52.3%

+5.1pp

57.4%

3-point %14/15 games+6.6pp

38.2%

+6.6pp

31.6%

Free-throw %13/13 games+1.5pp

77.7%

+1.5pp

76.2%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s14/15 games1.0pp apart

30.2%

1.0pp apart

29.2%

Free throws per shot13/13 games4.6pp apart

32.6%

4.6pp apart

37.2%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game14/15 games+2.6

31.3

+2.6

33.9

Turnovers per game2.8 fewer

9.8

2.8 fewer

12.6

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.