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Predictions graded

Murcia77Tenerife90

Sun 11 Oct 2026, 10:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1521%

Points by period: Murcia and Tenerife.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Murcia	13	20	24	20
Tenerife	16	28	22	24

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Murcia's long unbeaten Liga Endesa home run meets a Tenerife side that won at Unicaja on 3 October and shoots the three better.

Murcia are the likely winners, roughly seven points clear in the expected score. No quoted price does enough at these numbers to justify a bet, with doubts over Boum, Sant-Roos, López-Arostegui and Bamba still unresolved.

Context

Boum and Sant-Roos are doubts for Murcia, while Tenerife list López-Arostegui and Bamba as doubtful and Giedraitis as reported out, so both rotations could change. Murcia are also closing a three-game home week before a 14 October European trip.

Boum has been Murcia's go-to scorer in the opening two Liga Endesa rounds, with 18 points at Girona and 15 in the home win over Barça, and he delivered late baskets against Barça. He sat out the Basketball Champions League win over Varese on 7 October with a strain at the hamstring insertion. Murcia rested him in the hope he can face Tenerife, but he is not yet cleared. Sito Alonso has said he will not use players who are not close to full fitness. If Boum misses out, Murcia lose their main late-game shot creator and may lean more on Juani Marcos and Michael Forrest in the backcourt.
- UCAM Murcia ruled Souley Boum out of their Basketball Champions League game against Varese on 7 October.
- The problem is a strain at the hamstring insertion, and Murcia rested him with the Sunday game against Tenerife in mind.
- Boum is listed as a doubt for the Tenerife game, with Sito Alonso saying players will not feature unless they are above 90 per cent.
Sant-Roos has not played this season after tearing the adductor muscle in his right leg in late September, an injury Murcia said would keep him out of the start of the campaign. He missed the Basketball Champions League win over Varese on 7 October and is now listed as a doubt for the visit of Tenerife. The Cuban forward adds defensive length and experience on the wing. Murcia have covered his absence with Dylan Ennis, Sander Raieste and Rubén López de la Torre sharing minutes at the three, so a return would deepen the rotation rather than change its shape.
- UCAM Murcia announced on 22 September that Howard Sant-Roos had torn the adductor muscle in his right leg and would miss the start of the season.
- Sant-Roos was still unavailable for the Basketball Champions League home win over Varese on 7 October.
- He is listed as a doubt for the home Liga Endesa game against Tenerife.
López-Arostegui joined Tenerife from Valencia in the summer and has been managed carefully at the start of the season. The club sent him home from the trip to London as a precaution over a muscle overload on 4 October and left him out of the EuroCup game two days later. He is now a doubt for Murcia. His absence would thin the wing rotation, alongside the doubt over TJ Bamba, and leave coach Jaka Lakovic with fewer options against Murcia's physical perimeter defence.
- La Laguna Tenerife said on 4 October that Xabi López-Arostegui had a muscle overload and returned to the island as a precaution.
- He was left out of the EuroCup game at London Lions on 6 October.
- He is listed as a doubt for the Liga Endesa game at Murcia on 11 October.
Bamba joined Tenerife in the summer and has started the season in scoring form, putting up 16 points in the EuroCup game at London Lions on 6 October. He is now listed as a doubt for the Liga Endesa visit to Murcia. Bamba's athleticism on the wing is part of how Tenerife match up with Murcia's physical perimeter. If he cannot play, Kyle Guy, Wesley Van Beck, Arturs Kurucs and Jaime Fernández would carry more responsibility on the wing.
- Tenerife list TJ Bamba as a doubt for the Liga Endesa game at Murcia on 11 October.
- Bamba scored 16 points in Tenerife's EuroCup game at London Lions on 6 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia win in about 72 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMurciaEstimated chance72.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 71 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Murcia and 15 for Tenerife, across seasons and competitions.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonMurcia +2.5Estimated chance71.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostMurciaEstimated chance70.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostMurciaEstimated chance64.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia cover -3.5 (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · HandicaplostMurcia -3.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia cover -1.5 in the 1st half in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostMurcia -1.5Estimated chance60.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostMurciaEstimated chance60.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia cover -0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Murcia and 15 for Tenerife, across seasons and competitions.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostMurcia -0.5Estimated chance60.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostMurciaEstimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia cover -0.5 in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostMurcia -0.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonMurciaEstimated chance56%

Points2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 45.5 points in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 45.5Estimated chance72.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Tenerife score fewer than 85.5 points (overtime included) in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · Team PointslostTenerife under 85.5Estimated chance70.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. The game has fewer than 174.5 points (overtime included) in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · Total PointswonUnder 174.5Estimated chance66.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Tenerife score fewer than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostTenerife under 21.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia score fewer than 22.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostMurcia under 22.5Estimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia score fewer than 89.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · Team PointswonMurcia under 89.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Murcia score more than 42.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostMurcia over 42.5Estimated chance57.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Murcia 87.0, Tenerife 79.5. Tenerife score fewer than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Murcia have not lost a Liga Endesa regular-season home game since 2025, and beat Barcelona 100-94 at home on 4 October 2026.
- Across their last 15 completed games (14 May 2026 to 6 October 2026), Tenerife conceded 93.3 points per game, including 89 at London Lions on 6 October 2026.
- In the same 15-game samples, Murcia averaged 33.8 rebounds to Tenerife's 26.3, and Murcia's free-throw rate (0.345) is higher than Tenerife's (0.268).
- Murcia averaged 91.7 points and allowed 88.1 over their last 15 completed games (12 April 2026 to 7 October 2026).
- In the most recent meeting at Murcia, on 25 April 2026, Murcia won 86-80, holding Tenerife to 80 points.
- Souley Boum, Murcia's leading ACB scorer in the opening rounds (18 at Girona, 15 vs Barcelona), missed the 7 October Champions League win and is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostTenerife under 20.5Estimated chance56.1%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 10, 18:33

Selected line

174.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

33%

Chance of 175+ points

21 pp below break-even

Over 1.83 needs 55% to break even. BetBugs sees 33%.

Move the line main 174.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 33%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 67%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W86–80

Murciav

Tenerife

Apr 25, 2026·ACB

L96–80

Tenerifev

Murcia

Oct 18, 2025·ACB

L77–78

Murciav

Tenerife

Feb 8, 2025·ACB

L82–74

Tenerifev

Murcia

Dec 21, 2024·ACB

L75–73

Tenerifev

Murcia

Jan 27, 2024·ACB

W80–68

Murciav

Tenerife

Sep 30, 2023·ACB

W109–111

Tenerifev

Murcia

May 3, 2023·ACBOT

W82–67

Murciav

Tenerife

Mar 15, 2023·CL

L85–65

Tenerifev

Murcia

Jan 24, 2023·CL

W85–64

Murciav

Tenerife

Jan 6, 2023·ACB

161.7Avg total points

10.3Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Liga ACB · ACB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Murcia

1–150%

Tenerife

1–150%

Recent Form

Murcia

10W 5L · last 15

vs Varese85–58 Oct 7CL

vs Barcelona100–94 Oct 4ACB

at Basquet Girona77–84 Sep 27ACB

vs Barcelona76–100 Jun 6ACB

at Barcelona90–87 Jun 4ACB

vs Barcelona68–91 Jun 2ACB

vs Forca Lleida116–95 May 29ACB

at Basket Zaragoza100–90 May 24ACB

vs Unicaja87–69 May 17ACB

at Baskonia80–87 May 14ACB

vs Basquet Girona86–75 May 9ACB

at Real Madrid123–131 OTMay 3ACB

vs Tenerife86–80 Apr 25ACB

at MoraBanc Andorra95–89 Apr 18ACB

vs Granada107–91 Apr 12ACB

Tenerife

5W 10L · last 15

at London Lions77–89 Oct 6EUR

at Unicaja80–75 Oct 3ACB

vs Turk Telekom82–75 Sep 30EUR

vs Basket Zaragoza80–81 Sep 27ACB

vs Barcelona76–85 Jun 13ACB

at Barcelona89–97 Jun 11ACB

at Barcelona67–100 Jun 9ACB

at Real Madrid107–95 Jun 6ACB

vs Real Madrid83–118 Jun 4ACB

at Real Madrid98–97 Jun 2ACB

vs Bilbao82–87 May 29ACB

at Granada109–96 May 23ACB

vs Joventut Badalona98–100 OTMay 20ACB

vs Barcelona97–102 May 17ACB

at Gran Canaria83–102 May 14ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Murcia

Stats

2–3

Tenerife

Tenerife leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+2.8pp

56.9%

+2.8pp

54.1%

3-point %+4.1pp

34.8%

+4.1pp

38.9%

Free-throw %15/13 games+5.0pp

76.3%

+5.0pp

81.3%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.3pp apart

35.5%

0.3pp apart

35.8%

Free throws per shot15/13 games7.7pp apart

34.5%

7.7pp apart

26.8%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+7.5

33.8

+7.5

26.3

Turnovers per game2.2 fewer

12.1

2.2 fewer

9.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.