ABA LeagueFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Mega Basket88Zadar82

Sun 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions16–964%

Points by period: Mega Basket and Zadar.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Mega Basket	19	23	18	28
Zadar	20	16	24	22

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Mega Basket open at home after an 83-59 loss at Partizan, while Zadar arrive from a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar.

Zadar are the better side on this evidence, ahead after 40 minutes in roughly two-thirds of games like this and shooting better from three over each team's last 15 completed games. No prices were available for the fixture, so the forecasts here are unpriced.

Context

Mega's frontcourt has been rebuilt after three young big men left for US colleges and the NBA, and Zadar are bedding in a new head coach, so both rotations carry genuine uncertainty. Both played on 5 October, leaving rest level at about five and a half days.

Mega entered the new season without several of the young frontcourt players who filled the team last season. Bogoljub Marković, now listed on the Milwaukee Bucks' roster, was part of that group, while Luigi Suigo left for Villanova and Asim Djulović for Butler. The remaining bigs and academy products must absorb those minutes against Zadar, whose frontcourt is more established. No replacements have been announced, so how Mega's reshaped interior copes with Zadar's size is the open question.
- Bogoljub Marković is listed on the Milwaukee Bucks' 2026-27 roster after spending last season with Mega Superbet.
- Luigi Suigo, a big man who played for Mega last season, has joined Villanova.
- Asim Djulović has moved to Butler after playing for Mega Superbet in the ABA League and the Serbian Super League.
Zadar began the campaign with a new head coach. Stipe Modrić took the bench for his first official game on 27 September, a Croatian Premier League win over Samobor, and quickly introduced patterned half-court entries, including a set built to send Vladimir Mihailović into the lane. That gives Mega a clear first defensive assignment but little certainty about Modrić's rotation, particularly how he splits backcourt minutes. A new coach's first road game is also a test of whether the early structure holds away from home.
- Stipe Modrić took charge of his first official match on 27 September, when Zadar beat Samobor in the Croatian Premier League.
- A tactical breakdown of Zadar's ABA League play identifies an entry set designed to create driving situations for Vladimir Mihailović.
Mega's most recent ABA League outing ended in an 83-59 loss at Partizan on 5 October, with Andrej Lučić leading the visitors on 14 points. Mega therefore arrive at this home fixture low on scoring momentum and with a young squad still finding its level. Whether the heavy margin reflected the step up in opposition or a wider problem in Mega's half-court attack is not clear from one result.
- Partizan beat Mega Superbet 83-59 on 5 October in the ABA League.
- Andrej Lučić scored 14 points for Mega in that game.
Zadar opened their ABA League season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 5 October, Vladimir Mihailović prominent among the scorers with 15 points. The result gives the team a positive start before travelling to Mega, with the backcourt again the main avenue of scoring. Whether that balance holds on the road and how much the short gap between games affects the rotation is not established.
- Zadar beat Studentski Centar 79-65 at home on 5 October.
- Vladimir Mihailović scored 15 points for Zadar in the win.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Mega Basket cover +7.5 in the 1st quarter in about 80 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonMega Basket +7.5Estimated chance79.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Mega Basket cover +7.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 77 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonMega Basket +7.5Estimated chance77.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar win in about 70 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostZadarEstimated chance69.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostZadarEstimated chance67.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostZadarEstimated chance62.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonZadar +0.5Estimated chance60.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostZadarEstimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar cover -4.5 (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · HandicaplostZadar -4.5Estimated chance57.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Mega Basket cover +5.5 in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonMega Basket +5.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonZadarEstimated chance56%

Points11 of 15 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. The 1st quarter has more than 34.5 points in about 79 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonOver 34.5Estimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Mega Basket score more than 15.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 78 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonMega Basket over 15.5Estimated chance77.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. The game has more than 149.5 points (overtime included) in about 77 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 149.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar score more than 17.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 77 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostZadar over 17.5Estimated chance76.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. The 1st half has more than 73.5 points in about 75 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonOver 73.5Estimated chance75.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar score more than 17.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 75 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonZadar over 17.5Estimated chance75.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar score more than 77.5 points (overtime included) in about 74 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · Team PointswonZadar over 77.5Estimated chance74.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. The 3rd quarter has more than 36.5 points in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 36.5Estimated chance67.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 42.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 42.5Estimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Mega Basket score more than 74.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · Team PointswonMega Basket over 74.5Estimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Mega Basket score fewer than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostMega Basket under 20.5Estimated chance60.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Mega Basket score fewer than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonMega Basket under 20.5Estimated chance59.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar score fewer than 43.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonZadar under 43.5Estimated chance57.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Zadar score fewer than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostZadar under 21.5Estimated chance56.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Mega Basket 77.2, Zadar 83.8. Mega Basket score fewer than 39.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Mega Basket and 15 for Zadar, across seasons and competitions.
- Mega lost their ABA League opener 83-59 at Partizan on 2026-10-05, their lowest scoring game in the 15-game sample and a squad that research says lost several frontcourt players to US colleges and the NBA.
- Zadar opened the ABA season with a 79-65 home win over Studentski Centar on 2026-10-05, holding their opponent to 65 points.
- Across 15 games each, Zadar shoot 35.3% from three (172/487) against Mega's 29.5% (117/396), and Zadar commit fewer turnovers (11.8 vs 14.7 per game).
- Mega's home games in the 2025 ABA season produced 95-72, 103-98 (OT), 79-84, 95-77 and 90-76, showing their home venue has normally been high-scoring.
- The last four ABA meetings were decided by 1, 15, 1 and 3 points (Mega winning three), with Mega scoring 90 and 75 at home against Zadar in 2025.
- Zadar's most recent ABA road game before this one was a 68-86 loss at Spartak Subotica on 2026-04-30, showing they can be held down away from home.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostMega Basket under 39.5Estimated chance55.6%

W90–89

Mega Basketv Zadar

Zadar

Dec 12, 2025·ABA

L88–73

Zadarv

Mega Basket

Nov 14, 2025·ABA

W75–74

Mega Basketv Zadar

Zadar

Mar 30, 2025·ABA

W65–68

Zadarv

Mega Basket

Dec 2, 2024·ABA

L74–71

Zadarv

Mega Basket

Feb 6, 2024·ABA

W91–81

Mega Basketv Zadar

Zadar

Nov 5, 2023·ABA

W78–101

Zadarv

Mega Basket

Sep 20, 2023·ABA

W80–77

Mega Basketv Zadar

Zadar

Jan 23, 2023·ABA

L96–90

Zadarv

Mega Basket

Oct 17, 2022·ABA

W81–85

Zadarv

Mega Basket

Apr 4, 2022·ABA

162.7Avg total points

6.9Avg margin

10meetings

League table

ABA League · AdmiralBet ABA League - Regular Season · Group A

#TeamW–LWin %

Mega Basket

0–10%

Zadar

1–0100%

Recent Form

Mega Basket

8W 7L · last 15

at Partizan Mozzart Bet59–83 Oct 5ABA

at FMP Beograd95–99 May 12SUP

vs FMP Beograd77–80 May 5SUP

at Borac Mozzart98–89 Apr 26ABA

vs Split95–72 Apr 20ABA

at Studentski Centar85–89 Apr 13ABA

vs KK Krka Novo mesto103–98 OTApr 6ABA

vs FMP Beograd79–84 Mar 28ABA

at Split74–96 Mar 22ABA

at KK Krka Novo mesto82–78 Mar 19ABA

vs Borac Mozzart95–77 Mar 15ABA

vs Studentski Centar90–76 Mar 9ABA

at Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet84–106 Feb 21KOR

at Partizan Mozzart Bet80–58 Feb 20KOR

vs OKK Beograd100–79 Feb 19KOR

Zadar

11W 4L · last 15

vs Studentski Centar79–65 Oct 5ABA

at Skrljevo107–69 Oct 2PRE

vs Samobor81–59 Sep 27PRE

vs Cibona75–82 Jun 10PRE

at Cibona67–73 Jun 7PRE

at Cibona87–70 Jun 5PRE

vs Cibona92–57 Jun 2PRE

vs Cibona72–74 May 31PRE

at Dubrovnik81–68 May 25PRE

vs Dubrovnik83–57 May 22PRE

at Kvarner96–72 May 16PRE

vs Kvarner90–70 May 13PRE

vs GKK Sibenka113–71 May 10PRE

vs Split90–67 May 3PRE

at Spartak Subotica68–86 Apr 30ABA

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Mega Basket

Stats

0–5

Zadar

Zadar leads in 5 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+0.5pp

56.9%

+0.5pp

57.4%

3-point %+5.8pp

29.5%

+5.8pp

35.3%

Free-throw %+0.3pp

72.4%

+0.3pp

72.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s12.5pp apart

27.8%

12.5pp apart

40.3%

Free throws per shot7.1pp apart

37.9%

7.1pp apart

30.8%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game13/15 games+0.5

36.2

+0.5

36.7

Turnovers per game2.9 fewer

14.7

2.9 fewer

11.8

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.