LNB ÉliteFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Lyon-Villeurbanne96Roanne77

Sun 11 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Points by period: Lyon-Villeurbanne and Roanne.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Lyon-Villeurbanne	23	22	26	25
Roanne	16	18	31	12

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Both sides arrive 2-0 in LNB Élite, and Roanne beat ASVEL 73-71 in the Super Cup on 19 September, so the derby has a real edge to it.

ASVEL's scoring and home floor point to them leading after 40 minutes and winning, with the expected score around 87-77. With 481 quoted selections reviewed, no price stands out at our numbers.

Context

ASVEL have been without centre Mathis Dossou-Yovo all season after a pre-season adductor injury and TyTy Washington Jr. was still doubtful on 7 October, while Roanne are without Darius Hannah and signed centre Filip Stanic as cover on 4 October.

Dossou-Yovo, ASVEL's centre, hurt an adductor in pre-season and has not featured in the league this season. The club moved on 7 October to sign Juhann Begarin on a one-month medical replacement deal, a strong indication it expects the centre to remain out. Injury reports point to a return no earlier than November. For the derby ASVEL must again plan without their main interior presence, leaving more of the scoring burden on the backcourt. The club has not set a firm return date.
- Mathis Dossou-Yovo sustained an adductor injury in pre-season and has not played for ASVEL this season.
- Dossou-Yovo was listed as out until at least November on 7 October.
- ASVEL signed Juhann Begarin on a one-month medical replacement contract on 7 October.
Darius Hannah is reportedly out for the entire campaign, leaving Roanne short in the paint. The club responded on 4 October by signing German centre Filip Stanic, 28, from Oldenburg, as cover. Coach T.J. Parker now has another inside option to manage the absence. Stanic's integration and availability for the ASVEL game have not been confirmed.
- Roanne announced on 4 October that German centre Filip Stanic, 28, had signed to cover a long-term absence.
- Darius Hannah is reportedly out for the whole season.
- Stanic previously played for Oldenburg in the German Bundesliga.
Begarin, a 24-year-old French winger, returns to Betclic Élite after spells with Paris, Nanterre and Monaco. His one-month contract is explicitly medical cover for Mathis Dossou-Yovo, so he is being brought in to fill the gap left by the injured centre. He is reportedly qualified to face Roanne, which makes a debut in the derby possible. Whether he starts or comes off the bench is unclear, and his stay beyond one month depends on Dossou-Yovo's recovery.
- ASVEL announced the signing of French winger Juhann Begarin on 7 October.
- Begarin, 24, joins on a one-month medical replacement deal after spells with Paris, Nanterre and Monaco.
- Begarin is reportedly qualified for the Roanne game.
Washington joined ASVEL in the summer but has not appeared for the club in the league. The club listed him as a game-time decision with an ankle problem before the Valencia game on 1 October, and he missed the trip to Gravelines-Dunkerque on 4 October. An injury update on 7 October still described him as questionable with the same ankle issue. His availability remains uncertain and the club has not confirmed whether he will be ready for the derby.
- ASVEL listed TyTy Washington Jr. as a game-time decision with an ankle injury before the 1 October game against Valencia.
- Washington was absent from the 4 October league game at Gravelines-Dunkerque.
- On 7 October he was still listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 86.5, Roanne 77.3. Lyon-Villeurbanne cover +3.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 77 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lyon-Villeurbanne and 15 for Roanne, across seasons and competitions.
- ASVEL are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 83.5 points scored and 75.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-04).
- Roanne are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 87.0 points scored and 81.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-02).
- Roanne beat ASVEL 73-71 in the LNB Super Cup on 2026-09-19, holding ASVEL to 71 points.
- ASVEL won 98-96 at Paris in EuroLeague on 2026-10-07, led by Patty Mills' 21 points.
- Roanne lost 80-78 at second-division Antibes in the Coupe de France on 2026-10-06, trailing 68-55 after three quarters.
- ASVEL's 15-game sample shows 54.3% two-point shooting, 32.3% three-point shooting and 31.0 rebounds per game; Roanne's 14-game sample shows 31.4 rebounds and 13.1 turnovers per game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostLyon-Villeurbanne +3.5Estimated chance77.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 86.5, Roanne 77.3. Lyon-Villeurbanne win in about 77 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- ASVEL are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 83.5 points scored and 75.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-04).
- Roanne are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 87.0 points scored and 81.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-02).
- Roanne beat ASVEL 73-71 in the LNB Super Cup on 2026-09-19, holding ASVEL to 71 points.
- ASVEL won 98-96 at Paris in EuroLeague on 2026-10-07, led by Patty Mills' 21 points.
- Roanne lost 80-78 at second-division Antibes in the Coupe de France on 2026-10-06, trailing 68-55 after three quarters.
- ASVEL's 15-game sample shows 54.3% two-point shooting, 32.3% three-point shooting and 31.0 rebounds per game; Roanne's 14-game sample shows 31.4 rebounds and 13.1 turnovers per game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance76.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 86.5, Roanne 77.3. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 75 of 100 games like this.
- ASVEL are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 83.5 points scored and 75.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-04).
- Roanne are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 87.0 points scored and 81.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-02).
- Roanne beat ASVEL 73-71 in the LNB Super Cup on 2026-09-19, holding ASVEL to 71 points.
- ASVEL won 98-96 at Paris in EuroLeague on 2026-10-07, led by Patty Mills' 21 points.
- Roanne lost 80-78 at second-division Antibes in the Coupe de France on 2026-10-06, trailing 68-55 after three quarters.
- ASVEL's 15-game sample shows 54.3% two-point shooting, 32.3% three-point shooting and 31.0 rebounds per game; Roanne's 14-game sample shows 31.4 rebounds and 13.1 turnovers per game.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance74.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 86.5, Roanne 77.3. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- ASVEL are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 83.5 points scored and 75.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-04).
- Roanne are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 87.0 points scored and 81.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-02).
- Roanne beat ASVEL 73-71 in the LNB Super Cup on 2026-09-19, holding ASVEL to 71 points.
- ASVEL won 98-96 at Paris in EuroLeague on 2026-10-07, led by Patty Mills' 21 points.
- Roanne lost 80-78 at second-division Antibes in the Coupe de France on 2026-10-06, trailing 68-55 after three quarters.
- ASVEL's 15-game sample shows 54.3% two-point shooting, 32.3% three-point shooting and 31.0 rebounds per game; Roanne's 14-game sample shows 31.4 rebounds and 13.1 turnovers per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance68.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 86.5, Roanne 77.3. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- ASVEL are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 83.5 points scored and 75.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-04).
- Roanne are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 87.0 points scored and 81.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-02).
- Roanne beat ASVEL 73-71 in the LNB Super Cup on 2026-09-19, holding ASVEL to 71 points.
- ASVEL won 98-96 at Paris in EuroLeague on 2026-10-07, led by Patty Mills' 21 points.
- Roanne lost 80-78 at second-division Antibes in the Coupe de France on 2026-10-06, trailing 68-55 after three quarters.
- ASVEL's 15-game sample shows 54.3% two-point shooting, 32.3% three-point shooting and 31.0 rebounds per game; Roanne's 14-game sample shows 31.4 rebounds and 13.1 turnovers per game.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance62.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 86.5, Roanne 77.3. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- ASVEL are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 83.5 points scored and 75.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-04).
- Roanne are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 87.0 points scored and 81.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-02).
- Roanne beat ASVEL 73-71 in the LNB Super Cup on 2026-09-19, holding ASVEL to 71 points.
- ASVEL won 98-96 at Paris in EuroLeague on 2026-10-07, led by Patty Mills' 21 points.
- Roanne lost 80-78 at second-division Antibes in the Coupe de France on 2026-10-06, trailing 68-55 after three quarters.
- ASVEL's 15-game sample shows 54.3% two-point shooting, 32.3% three-point shooting and 31.0 rebounds per game; Roanne's 14-game sample shows 31.4 rebounds and 13.1 turnovers per game.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance59.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 86.5, Roanne 77.3. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- ASVEL are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 83.5 points scored and 75.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-04).
- Roanne are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 87.0 points scored and 81.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-02).
- Roanne beat ASVEL 73-71 in the LNB Super Cup on 2026-09-19, holding ASVEL to 71 points.
- ASVEL won 98-96 at Paris in EuroLeague on 2026-10-07, led by Patty Mills' 21 points.
- Roanne lost 80-78 at second-division Antibes in the Coupe de France on 2026-10-06, trailing 68-55 after three quarters.
- ASVEL's 15-game sample shows 54.3% two-point shooting, 32.3% three-point shooting and 31.0 rebounds per game; Roanne's 14-game sample shows 31.4 rebounds and 13.1 turnovers per game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Lyon-Villeurbanne 86.5, Roanne 77.3. Lyon-Villeurbanne cover -1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Lyon-Villeurbanne and 15 for Roanne, across seasons and competitions.
- ASVEL are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 83.5 points scored and 75.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-04).
- Roanne are 2-0 in LNB Élite, averaging 87.0 points scored and 81.0 allowed in two league games (through 2026-10-02).
- Roanne beat ASVEL 73-71 in the LNB Super Cup on 2026-09-19, holding ASVEL to 71 points.
- ASVEL won 98-96 at Paris in EuroLeague on 2026-10-07, led by Patty Mills' 21 points.
- Roanne lost 80-78 at second-division Antibes in the Coupe de France on 2026-10-06, trailing 68-55 after three quarters.
- ASVEL's 15-game sample shows 54.3% two-point shooting, 32.3% three-point shooting and 31.0 rebounds per game; Roanne's 14-game sample shows 31.4 rebounds and 13.1 turnovers per game.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonLyon-Villeurbanne -1.5Estimated chance57.6%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 10, 18:33

Selected line

163.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

52%

Chance of 164+ points

2 pp below break-even

Over 1.85 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 52%.

Move the line main 163.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L73–71

Roannev

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Sep 19, 2026·LNB

W66–69

Roannev

Lyon-Villeurbanne

May 11, 2024·LNB

W93–88

Lyon-Villeurbannev Roanne

Roanne

Oct 22, 2023·LNB

W96–78

Lyon-Villeurbannev Roanne

Roanne

Apr 2, 2023·LNB

W89–88

Lyon-Villeurbannev Roanne

Roanne

Feb 15, 2023·FRE

L89–83

Roannev

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Oct 23, 2022·LNB

W82–91

Roannev

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Apr 12, 2022·LNB

W93–83

Lyon-Villeurbannev Roanne

Roanne

Jan 23, 2022·LNB

W75–89

Roannev

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Jun 15, 2021·LNB

W101–93

Lyon-Villeurbannev Roanne

Roanne

May 4, 2021·LNB

169Avg total points

7.6Avg margin

10meetings

League table

LNB Élite · LNB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Lyon-Villeurbanne

2–0100%

Roanne

2–0100%

Recent Form

Lyon-Villeurbanne

9W 6L · last 15

at Paris98–96 Oct 7EUR

at Gravelines-Dunkerque70–65 Oct 4LNB

vs Valencia92–105 Oct 2EUR

at Panathinaikos79–102 Sep 30EUR

at Cholet97–85 Sep 27LNB

vs Maccabi Tel Aviv84–74 Sep 24EUR

at Roanne71–73 Sep 19LNB

vs Cholet75–80 OTMay 30LNB

at Cholet65–77 May 28LNB

vs Cholet75–67 May 26LNB

at Paris76–87 May 16LNB

vs Strasbourg89–81 May 9LNB

vs JL Bourg91–77 May 5LNB

vs Gravelines-Dunkerque88–79 May 1LNB

at Monaco87–83 Apr 19LNB

Roanne

12W 3L · last 15

at Antibes78–80 Oct 6FRE

vs Nanterre93–83 Oct 2LNB

at Boulazac81–79 Sep 26LNB

vs Paris59–81 Sep 20LNB

vs Lyon-Villeurbanne73–71 Sep 19LNB

vs Pau-Orthez108–82 May 15PRO

at St. Chamond93–79 May 8PRO

vs Caen75–71 May 1PRO

at Quimper81–67 Apr 25PRO

at Antibes92–68 Apr 21PRO

vs ASA87–69 Apr 17PRO

at Hyeres-Toulon86–80 Apr 10PRO

vs Chalons-Reims79–88 Apr 7PRO

vs Evreux103–75 Apr 3PRO

at Nantes72–68 Mar 27PRO

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Stats

1–4

Roanne

14 games

Roanne leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+5.3pp

54.3%

+5.3pp

59.6%

3-point %+0.7pp

32.3%

+0.7pp

33.0%

Free-throw %12/14 games+0.8pp

71.6%

+0.8pp

70.8%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.4pp apart

34.5%

2.4pp apart

32.1%

Free throws per shot12/14 games1.5pp apart

37.5%

1.5pp apart

36.0%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+0.4

31.0

+0.4

31.4

Turnovers per game1.0 fewer

14.1

1.0 fewer

13.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.