Liga ACB·Finished·Featured
Bilbao9696 – 87
San Pablo Burgos87| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilbao | 19 | 25 | 30 | 22 |
| San Pablo Burgos | 20 | 25 | 25 | 17 |
Pre-match view
Bilbao's home scoring against Burgos's league-leading offensive rebounding is the tension in Miribilla, with the returns of Hlinason and Hilliard still to be confirmed.
Bilbao are the likelier winner: ahead after 40 minutes in about 67 of 100 games like this and winning about 69 of 100 with overtime included. Over 87.5 points in the first half at 1.82 is the one reviewed price that carries an edge.
Bilbao's expected scoring edge at home and the possible returns of Hlinason and Hilliard meet Burgos's league-best offensive rebounding and a EuroCup trip to Greece on 7 October; both teams sit 1-1 in the ACB.
Hlinason was hurt in the overtime defeat at Leyma Coruña on 4 October, required stitches and missed the European opener at Igokea two days later. The Icelandic centre pulled down 19 rebounds in Bilbao's first two league games, tied at the top of the ACB rebounding charts, and his presence would restore size and rebounding against a Burgos team that has dominated the offensive glass. A return is reportedly expected for Sunday, but Bilbao have not issued a fresh medical update, so his game-day status may still need a late check.
Hilliard rolled his ankle in the same Coruña game that sidelined Hlinason and was ruled out of the Igokea trip, where Bilbao still won 92-79 with eleven different scorers. The Bilbao wing scored 17 points in that Coruña game and is a primary perimeter scorer, so his return would restore the team's main shot-creator for a Burgos defence that has been strong on the boards. Bilbao have not confirmed his availability, so he remains a late decision.
Čančar was injured in training before the season, and Burgos confirmed the meniscus tear. He underwent surgery in Munich, and the reported minimum two-month absence takes him well beyond Sunday's game. The Slovenian forward was part of Burgos's squad for their ACB and EuroCup campaign, and his loss leaves the club without a planned frontcourt option for the trip to Miribilla. Burgos were still looking at cover in mid-September and were reportedly in contact over Jasiel Rivero, which underlines the gap in the rotation.
Burgos were beaten 93-80 at Aris on 7 October in their second EuroCup outing, a game they trailed by 23 at the break before a late recovery. Chase Audige led with 25 points and five three-pointers. The club then organised a supporters' trip and set off for Bilbao on 10 October, giving the squad a four-day gap between the Greek trip and Sunday's tip-off. The long road swing may shape how Porfi Fisac manages his rotation in Miribilla.
Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Market 54.9% · BetBugs 64.9%
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. The 1st half has more than 87.5 points in about 65 of 100 games like this. Bilbao's strong home scoring and the likely return of Hlinason and Hilliard give them a slight edge over a Burgos side that scores less on the road. Both teams play at a high pace, so an 184-point total is reasonable.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. Bilbao win in about 69 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
BilbaoEstimated chance69.1%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. Bilbao are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 67 of 100 games like this.
BilbaoEstimated chance67%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. Bilbao cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Bilbao and 15 for San Pablo Burgos, across seasons and competitions.
Bilbao +0.5Estimated chance63.3%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. Bilbao are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
BilbaoEstimated chance62.2%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. Bilbao cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Bilbao and 15 for San Pablo Burgos, across seasons and competitions.
Bilbao +0.5Estimated chance60%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. Bilbao are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
BilbaoEstimated chance58%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. Bilbao are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
BilbaoEstimated chance55.6%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.82
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. The 1st half has more than 87.5 points in about 65 of 100 games like this.
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. The 2nd quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 63 of 100 games like this.
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. Bilbao score more than 45.5 points in the 1st half in about 61 of 100 games like this.
Bilbao over 45.5Estimated chance61.1%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. San Pablo Burgos score more than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
San Pablo Burgos over 20.5Estimated chance61.1%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. Bilbao score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
Bilbao over 22.5Estimated chance61%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. Bilbao score more than 92.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
Bilbao over 92.5Estimated chance59.7%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. The game has more than 179.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. Bilbao score more than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
Bilbao over 22.5Estimated chance58.6%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. San Pablo Burgos score more than 42.5 points in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
San Pablo Burgos over 42.5Estimated chance58.4%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. San Pablo Burgos score more than 86.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
San Pablo Burgos over 86.5Estimated chance57.5%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bilbao 94.5, San Pablo Burgos 88.2. The 1st quarter has more than 44.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees
Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.
Selected line
179.5
Bookmakers' main total
BetBugs · Over
59%
Chance of 180+ points
+6 pp above break-even
Over 1.87 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 59%.
Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.
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San Pablo Burgos
at Igokea92–79 CL
at Leyma Coruna101–104 OTACB
vs Manresa107–92 ACB
vs Valencia71–88 ACBat Valencia80–83 ACB
at Tenerife87–82 ACB
vs Basquet Girona86–80 ACBat Valencia83–88 ACB
vs Real Madrid88–82 ACB
at Forca Lleida81–90 ACB
vs Granada88–83 ACB
vs PAOK89–74 FIBat PAOK73–79 FIBvs Manresa80–84 ACB
at Barcelona61–90 ACB
at Aris80–93 EURat Forca Lleida94–81 ACB
vs Cedevita Olimpija85–81 EUR
vs Baskonia97–98 ACBvs Granada110–105 ACB
at Joventut Badalona79–86 ACB
at MoraBanc Andorra85–83 ACB
vs Unicaja97–90 ACBat Barcelona76–91 ACBvs Forca Lleida99–91 ACBat Manresa101–94 ACB
vs Breogan94–99 ACBvs Real Madrid78–94 ACB
at Gran Canaria109–95 ACBvs Valencia74–79 ACBLast 15 games · all competitions
Bilbao
Stats
2–3
San Pablo Burgos
San Pablo Burgos leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.
Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.