Liga ACBFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Baskonia93Joventut Badalona73

Sun 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: Baskonia and Joventut Badalona.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Baskonia	24	21	23	25
Joventut Badalona	21	18	17	17

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Baskonia are unbeaten in Liga Endesa but face a Joventut side that beat them 96-84 in the Supercopa five weeks ago and arrives with five days of rest to Baskonia's two.

The expected 40-minute score, Baskonia 93.5 to Joventut's 89.2, makes the home side the likely winner once overtime is included. Over 44.5 combined points in the second quarter at 1.91 is the one price that carries value here.

Context

Baskonia played in the EuroLeague on 9 October, two days before this game, and conceded 92 points at home in that loss, while Joventut last played on 6 October and have had five days to prepare. Baskonia's Liga Endesa squad for this fixture is not yet confirmed after Markus Howard was left out against Girona as the non-EU discard.

Baskonia must leave one non-EU player out of their domestic squad, and Howard was the player omitted for the Girona game. Howard is a main perimeter scorer for the team, so a continued absence would remove a three-point threat and shift more shot creation towards Chris Duarte, A.J. Lawson and Kobi Simmons. The club has not confirmed its squad for the Joventut game, so the designation could change.
- Baskonia named Markus Howard as their extra-community discard for their Liga Endesa game against Bàsquet Girona on 4 October.
- New arrival Marcio Santos became eligible to make his Liga Endesa debut once Howard was left out.
- Howard did not appear in Baskonia's 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
Baskonia conceded 92 points at home in the EuroLeague, a defensive concern before a quick return to domestic play. Joventut's backcourt of Nicolás Laprovittola and Ricky Rubio can punish loose perimeter defence. EuroLeague form does not always carry into the Liga Endesa, and the two-day gap leaves Galbiati's rotation uncertain.
- Beşiktaş won 92-84 away to Baskonia in the EuroLeague on 9 October.
- Scottie Wilbekin led Beşiktaş with 24 points, including six three-pointers.
- The result was Beşiktaş's second win of the EuroLeague season.
Baskonia have started the domestic campaign with two wins, including a 40-point home rout of Girona, and their offence has been scoring heavily at Buesa Arena. Joventut arrive still seeking a first Liga Endesa win. Domestic momentum gives Baskonia a clear home platform, while their EuroLeague results have been much weaker.
- Baskonia are chasing a third consecutive Liga Endesa win after opening the domestic season with two victories.
- Baskonia beat Bàsquet Girona 118-78 at home in their last Liga Endesa game on 4 October.
Joventut have won in Europe and lifted the Supercopa but are still without a Liga Endesa victory. Their offence has leaned on Nicolás Laprovittola and Ricky Rubio, and the visit to Vitoria is a demanding domestic road game. Securing a first league win would change the mood around a squad that has started well in cup and European play.
- Joventut beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 at home in their Basketball Champions League opener on 6 October.
- Joventut are still without a win in the Liga Endesa this season.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

2nd Quarter Total PointslostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 44.5

1.91fair 1.74

Market 52.4% · BetBugs 57.6%

+5.2ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. The 2nd quarter has more than 44.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this. Baskonia's home court and strong ACB scoring give them a slight edge, but Joventut's recent win over them and extra rest should keep the game close. Both teams have leaky defenses, so a high-scoring affair is likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. Baskonia cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Baskonia and 15 for Joventut Badalona, across seasons and competitions.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonBaskonia +2.5Estimated chance68.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. Baskonia win in about 63 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBaskoniaEstimated chance63.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. Baskonia are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonBaskoniaEstimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. Baskonia cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Baskonia and 15 for Joventut Badalona, across seasons and competitions.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonBaskonia +0.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. Baskonia are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonBaskoniaEstimated chance57.7%

Points1 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. Baskonia score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostBaskonia over 22.5Estimated chance58.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. Baskonia score more than 45.5 points in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostBaskonia over 45.5Estimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. The 1st half has more than 89.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostOver 89.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. The 2nd quarter has more than 44.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 44.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. The 1st quarter has more than 44.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonOver 44.5Estimated chance56.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. Joventut Badalona score more than 21.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostJoventut Badalona over 21.5Estimated chance56.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. Joventut Badalona score more than 43.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostJoventut Badalona over 43.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Joventut Badalona 89.2. Joventut Badalona score more than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia are 2-0 in ACB this season, averaging 108.0 points in domestic games, including a 118-78 home win over Girona on 4 October.
- Baskonia have lost three of four EuroLeague games, allowing 92 points at home to Beşiktaş on 9 October and 106 at home to Olympiacos on 24 September.
- Joventut won the most recent head-to-head 96-84 over Baskonia in the Supercopa on 19 September, with Nicolás Laprovittola scoring 27 points.
- Joventut are 0-1 in ACB after a 104-110 loss at Breogan on 27 September, but beat Bnei Herzliya 86-75 in the Basketball Champions League on 6 October.
- Baskonia have a two-day turnaround after their EuroLeague game on 9 October, while Joventut have had five days since their last game on 6 October.
- Baskonia's Markus Howard was left out of the ACB squad against Girona on 4 October as the non-EU discard and also missed the latest EuroLeague game, removing a perimeter scoring option.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostJoventut Badalona over 21.5Estimated chance55.9%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 10, 18:33

Selected line

182.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

52%

Chance of 183+ points

1 pp below break-even

Over 1.87 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 52%.

Move the line main 182.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L96–84

Joventut Badalonav

Baskonia

Sep 19, 2026·SUP

L88–96

Baskoniav

Joventut Badalona

Jun 7, 2026·ACB

L82–63

Joventut Badalonav

Baskonia

Jun 5, 2026·ACB

W85–71

Baskoniav

Joventut Badalona

Jun 3, 2026·ACB

L81–69

Joventut Badalonav

Baskonia

Apr 18, 2026·ACB

W87–77

Baskoniav

Joventut Badalona

Jan 25, 2026·ACB

L90–71

Joventut Badalonav

Baskonia

May 10, 2025·ACB

L79–82

Baskoniav

Joventut Badalona

Oct 26, 2024·ACB

L78–81

Baskoniav

Joventut Badalona

Feb 11, 2024·ACB

L77–72

Joventut Badalonav

Baskonia

Dec 3, 2023·ACB

160.9Avg total points

10.5Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Liga ACB · ACB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Baskonia

2–0100%

Joventut Badalona

0–10%

Recent Form

Baskonia

9W 6L · last 15

vs Besiktas84–92 Oct 9EUR

vs Basquet Girona118–78 Oct 4ACB

vs Olimpia Milano86–76 Oct 2EUR

at Valencia88–111 Sep 29EUR

at San Pablo Burgos98–97 Sep 27ACB

vs Olympiacos89–106 Sep 24EUR

at Joventut Badalona84–96 Sep 19SUP

vs Joventut Badalona88–96 Jun 7ACB

at Joventut Badalona63–82 Jun 5ACB

vs Joventut Badalona85–71 Jun 3ACB

vs Unicaja92–89 May 29ACB

at Real Madrid88–83 May 27ACB

vs Granada121–85 May 17ACB

vs Murcia87–80 May 14ACB

at Valencia88–86 May 10ACB

Joventut Badalona

9W 6L · last 15

vs Bnei Herzliya86–75 Oct 6CL

at Breogan104–110 Sep 27ACB

vs Barcelona101–87 Sep 20SUP

vs Baskonia96–84 Sep 19SUP

vs Valencia75–87 Jun 14ACB

at Valencia76–90 Jun 12ACB

at Valencia117–118 OTJun 10ACB

at Baskonia96–88 Jun 7ACB

vs Baskonia82–63 Jun 5ACB

at Baskonia71–85 Jun 3ACB

at Basquet Girona77–82 May 29ACB

vs Unicaja95–74 May 26ACB

vs San Pablo Burgos86–79 May 24ACB

at Tenerife100–98 OTMay 20ACB

at Real Madrid89–81 May 17ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Baskonia

Stats

2–3

Joventut Badalona

Joventut Badalona leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+0.6pp

57.1%

+0.6pp

56.5%

3-point %15/14 games+5.0pp

33.2%

+5.0pp

38.2%

Free-throw %14/15 games+23.5pp

80.2%

+23.5pp

56.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s44.4pp apart

30.9%

44.4pp apart

75.3%

Free throws per shot14/14 games6.3pp apart

35.3%

6.3pp apart

29.0%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+22.5

32.8

+22.5

55.3

Turnovers per game0.6 fewer

12.5

0.6 fewer

11.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.