Lega Basket Serie AFinished

Predictions graded

Varese85Trieste84

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–283%

Edges1–150%

Points by period: Varese and Trieste.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Varese	19	21	21	24
Trieste	15	23	20	26

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Varese should edge a close game at home, about 85-81 after 40 minutes, but the 1.44 on them to win asks for more than the evidence supports.

Trieste to win at 2.88 and under 86.5 combined first-half points at 1.87 are the two prices that do offer something.

Context

Varese's backcourt is unsettled, with Amedeo Della Valle expected to make a managed season debut and William McDowell-White's return from a late-September right-leg muscle tear unconfirmed, while Trieste's rebounding and free-throw advantage keeps the game close.

Della Valle is a summer signing who has not yet played for Varese. The coach has confirmed he will be in the group against Trieste but asked for patience while the guard builds towards full fitness, so a heavy workload or a starting role is not guaranteed. His return would deepen a backcourt that has been without William McDowell-White since late September and has been described around the club as short-handed. The main uncertainty is how many minutes the coach will give a player making his first competitive appearance of the season.
- Amedeo Della Valle is expected to make his Varese debut in the home game against Trieste.
- Varese coach Kastritis said Della Valle will be in the squad.
- Kastritis said Della Valle still needs patience before he is at his best but is mentally ready to contribute.
McDowell-White is listed as Varese's playmaker. The club confirmed the muscle injury on 23 September and set no return date, saying only that he would be reassessed in the coming weeks. He has not appeared since. With Della Valle only now returning from his own absence, Varese have had limited options in the backcourt, and whether McDowell-White is fit enough to face Trieste depends on that assessment.
- Varese said McDowell-White injured his right leg in training on 22 September.
- Tests found a lesion of the biceps femoris muscle.
- The club said he began rehabilitation and his condition would be reassessed in the coming weeks.
Varese opened their 2026-27 Basketball Champions League season at UCAM Murcia on 7 October, three days before the Serie A meeting with Trieste in Masnago. The club has not said whether it will manage rotation differently because of the midweek European fixture, so any effect on the minutes given to the squad for this game is uncertain.
- Varese's opening Basketball Champions League game was played at UCAM Murcia on 7 October.
- Varese's next fixture was the Serie A home game against Trieste at Masnago.
Trieste have lost both games of the new Serie A season, first 83-79 at Olimpia Milano on 27 September and then 87-82 at home to Reyer Venezia on 4 October. They go to Varese still looking for a first win, having been beaten by Venezia despite playing on their own court. The results are the main form guide available before this fixture, which is their third league game.
- Olimpia Milano beat Trieste 83-79 on 27 September, with Burnell scoring 20 points.
- Reyer Venezia won 87-82 at Trieste on 4 October, with Watson scoring 17 points.
- The two defeats leave Trieste without a win in the early Serie A standings.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Half Total PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 86.5

1.87fair 1.61

Market 53.5% · BetBugs 62%

+8.6ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. The 1st half has fewer than 86.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. Varese are at home and scored more across the larger 2025-26 sample, but both teams concede heavily and Varese had a midweek European trip while Trieste are rested. That points to a close, moderately high-scoring game with Varese just ahead.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. Varese cover +1.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Varese and 15 for Trieste, across seasons and competitions.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonVarese +1.5Estimated chance62.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. Varese win in about 62 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVareseEstimated chance61.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. Varese are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonVareseEstimated chance59.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. Varese cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Varese and 15 for Trieste, across seasons and competitions.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostVarese +0.5Estimated chance59.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. Varese are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonVareseEstimated chance56.6%

Points6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.87
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. The 1st half has fewer than 86.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonUnder 86.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. The 1st quarter has fewer than 43.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonUnder 43.5Estimated chance60.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. Varese score fewer than 88.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · Team PointswonVarese under 88.5Estimated chance60.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. The game has fewer than 171.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · Total PointswonUnder 171.5Estimated chance60.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. Varese score fewer than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonVarese under 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. Trieste score fewer than 83.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · Team PointslostTrieste under 83.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Varese 85.0, Trieste 81.2. Trieste score fewer than 41.5 points in the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Varese's three 2026-27 games: 69-90 home loss to Virtus Bologna (27 Sep, Lega A), 85-77 win at Scafati (4 Oct, Lega A) and 58-85 loss at Murcia (7 Oct, Champions League).
- Trieste's two 2026-27 Lega A games: 79-83 loss at Olimpia Milano (27 Sep) and 82-87 home loss to Venezia (4 Oct).
- In 15 games each across competitions, Varese average 28.8 rebounds and 12.9 turnovers, while Trieste average 30.4 rebounds and 11.6 turnovers and shoot 79.1% from the free-throw line to Varese's 72.7%.
- In the 2025-26 Lega A season, Varese averaged 86.4 points scored and 89.4 allowed in 12 games; Trieste averaged 82.7 scored and 87.1 allowed in 13 games.
- The most recent meeting was Trieste 90-89 Varese in Lega A on 4 April 2026; before that Varese won 84-69 at home on 21 December 2025.
- Varese have 3 days since their 7 October Champions League game, while Trieste have 6 days since their 4 October Lega A game.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonTrieste under 41.5Estimated chance55.1%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 9, 16:40

Selected line

171.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

40%

Chance of 172+ points

13 pp below break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 40%.

Move the line main 171.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 40%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 61%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L90–89

Triestev

Varese

Apr 4, 2026·LEG

W84–69

Varesev

Trieste

Dec 21, 2025·LEG

W85–80

Varesev

Trieste

May 4, 2025·LEG

L107–81

Triestev

Varese

Nov 3, 2024·LEG

W80–83

Triestev

Varese

Apr 16, 2023·LEG

W104–99

Varesev

Trieste

Dec 18, 2022·LEGOT

L76–92

Varesev

Trieste

Apr 13, 2022·LEG

W70–86

Triestev

Varese

Nov 14, 2021·LEG

L73–79

Varesev

Trieste

Apr 25, 2021·LEG

L108–83

Triestev

Varese

Jan 27, 2021·LEG

171.8Avg total points

11.8Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Lega Basket Serie A · Lega A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Varese

1–150%

Trieste

0–20%

Recent Form

Varese

7W 8L · last 15

at Murcia58–85 Oct 7CL

at Scafati85–77 Oct 4LEG

vs Virtus Bologna69–90 Sep 27LEG

at Virtus Bologna85–104 May 10LEG

vs Cremona84–75 Apr 26LEG

at Cantu96–100 Apr 19LEG

vs Sassari91–90 Apr 12LEG

at Trieste89–90 Apr 4LEG

vs Tortona97–87 Mar 28LEG

at Basket Napoli75–104 Mar 22LEG

vs Treviso91–86 Mar 15LEG

at Udine92–81 Mar 8LEG

vs Brescia98–96 Feb 14LEG

at Trento78–84 Feb 8LEG

vs Reggiana61–76 Feb 1LEG

Trieste

4W 11L · last 15

vs Venezia82–87 Oct 4LEG

at Olimpia Milano79–83 Sep 27LEG

at Brescia75–90 May 25LEG

vs Brescia83–77 May 23LEG

vs Brescia80–84 May 21LEG

at Brescia82–90 May 18LEG

at Brescia92–90 May 16LEG

vs Cremona89–94 May 10LEG

at Olimpia Milano78–86 May 3LEG

at Virtus Bologna81–95 Apr 26LEG

vs Brescia82–86 Apr 19LEG

at Udine89–70 Apr 12LEG

vs Varese90–89 Apr 4LEG

at Cantu76–97 Mar 29LEG

vs Venezia78–84 Mar 22LEG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Varese

Stats

0–5

Trieste

Trieste leads in 5 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+1.2pp

55.1%

+1.2pp

56.3%

3-point %+0.1pp

32.7%

+0.1pp

32.8%

Free-throw %+6.4pp

72.7%

+6.4pp

79.1%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.3pp apart

37.2%

1.3pp apart

35.9%

Free throws per shot0.4pp apart

29.3%

0.4pp apart

29.7%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+1.6

28.8

+1.6

30.4

Turnovers per game1.3 fewer

12.9

1.3 fewer

11.6

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.