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Predictions graded

Trier95Alba Berlin75

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges2–0100%

Points by period: Trier and Alba Berlin.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Trier	31	19	26	19
Alba Berlin	24	23	15	13

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Trier have won three of four BBL games and host an Alba Berlin side with two league defeats, so the game turns on whether Trier's home scoring holds against Alba's deeper roster.

Trier are the likely winners, with an expected 95.5-87.3 scoreline after 40 minutes. Trier -4.5 at 1.92 and Trier over 93.5 points at 1.87 both carry value.

Context

Trier are 3-1 in the BBL and strong at home, while Alba Berlin are 2-2 and without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko as of 3 October; a split head-to-head from last season leaves this competitive rather than one-sided.

Trier added Terrell Harris on 7 October, three days before the visit of Alba Berlin, on a deal reported as running until further notice. Harris is coming back to the German league after previous spells in the country. Whether he is registered in time to play against Alba, and where he would fit in the rotation, has not been announced.
- Trier signed Terrell Harris on 7 October on a deal running until further notice.
- Harris returns to the German league, where he has played before.
Alba Berlin confirmed on 25 September that Martin Hermannsson would be out after he was hurt against Frankfurt, and he was still listed as unavailable on 3 October, before the Champions League trip to Prague. The club has not given a return date, so whether he is ready for the game in Trier is uncertain.
- Alba Berlin said on 25 September that Martin Hermannsson would be out after being injured in the 24 September game against Frankfurt.
- The club again named him as injured and out of the squad for the game against Bamberg on 3 October.
Norris Agbakoko was hurt in the same 24 September game against Frankfurt and was still listed as unavailable on 3 October, leaving Alba Berlin short of a rotation option. No return date has been announced, so whether he features in Trier is uncertain.
- Alba Berlin said on 25 September that Norris Agbakoko would be out after being injured in the 24 September game against Frankfurt.
- The club named him as injured and out of the squad for the Bamberg game on 3 October.
Three days before visiting Trier, Alba Berlin opened their Champions League campaign with a 110-86 win at Slavia Prague, making 19 of 37 three-pointers. Brandon Angel led the scoring with 21 points and Joe Wieskamp added four triples. Whether that outside shooting travels into the league game at Trier is the open question.
- Alba Berlin beat Slavia Prague 110-86 on 7 October in their Champions League opener.
- Brandon Angel scored a game-high 21 points.
- Alba Berlin made 19 of 37 three-point attempts, with Joe Wieskamp hitting four of eight.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

HandicapwonUncertainty band: Lean

Trier -4.5

1.92fair 1.60

Market 52.1% · BetBugs 62.7%

+10.6ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier cover -4.5 (overtime included) in about 63 of 100 games like this. Trier have the stronger and higher-scoring current BBL body of work and home advantage, while Alba's league offense has been modest and is missing two confirmed rotation players. The h2h split last season suggests a close game, so Alba stay within single digits.

Team PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Trier over 93.5

1.87fair 1.68

Market 53.5% · BetBugs 59.6%

+6.2ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier score more than 93.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this. Trier have the stronger and higher-scoring current BBL body of work and home advantage, while Alba's league offense has been modest and is missing two confirmed rotation players. The h2h split last season suggests a close game, so Alba stay within single digits.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier cover +4.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 81 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Trier and 15 for Alba Berlin, across seasons and competitions.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonTrier +4.5Estimated chance80.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier win in about 74 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTrierEstimated chance74.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonTrierEstimated chance72.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonTrierEstimated chance66.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Trier and 15 for Alba Berlin, across seasons and competitions.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostTrier +0.5Estimated chance66.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.92
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier cover -4.5 (overtime included) in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · HandicapwonTrier -4.5Estimated chance62.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostTrierEstimated chance61.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier cover -2.5 in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonTrier -2.5Estimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonTrierEstimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonTrierEstimated chance56.9%

Points2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.87
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier score more than 93.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · Team PointswonTrier over 93.5Estimated chance59.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Alba Berlin score fewer than 89.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · Team PointswonAlba Berlin under 89.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Trier score more than 23.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostTrier over 23.5Estimated chance55.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trier 95.5, Alba Berlin 87.3. Alba Berlin score fewer than 44.5 points in the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Trier are 3-1 in the 2026-27 BBL, scoring 101.3 and conceding 90.3 per game over four league games (405/361 in the table, 9 Oct).
- Alba Berlin are 2-2 in the 2026-27 BBL, averaging 81.8 points for and 89.5 against, including a 61-95 loss at Bayern on 26 September.
- Trier have scored 98 (vs Jena) and 106 (vs Bonn) in their two home BBL games, and beat Ludwigsburg 94-80 away on 4 October.
- Alba were confirmed without Martin Hermannsson and Norris Agbakoko from 25 September and were still listing both as injured and out on 3 October.
- Alba's 110-86 Champions League win at Slavia Prague on 7 October came against a different level of opponent and followed 83 and 61-point BBL outings.
- Trier forward J. J. Roland (20.8 points, 29.2 minutes in four games) did not appear in the latest box score, and new signing Terrell Harris (7 October) is not confirmed in the rotation.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostAlba Berlin under 44.5Estimated chance55.5%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 9, 15:52

Selected line

182.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

52%

Chance of 183+ points

Near break-even

Over 1.92 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 52%.

Move the line main 182.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L92–99

Trierv

Alba Berlin

Feb 2, 2026·BBL

W92–97

Alba Berlinv Trier

Trier

Oct 3, 2025·BBL

L86–83

Alba Berlinv Trier

Trier

Mar 14, 2015·BBLOT

L54–91

Trierv

Alba Berlin

Nov 2, 2014·BBL

L61–81

Trierv

Alba Berlin

Apr 25, 2014·BBL

L87–72

Alba Berlinv Trier

Trier

Dec 14, 2013·BBL

W88–91

Alba Berlinv Trier

Trier

Apr 24, 2013·BBL

L80–88

Trierv

Alba Berlin

Nov 3, 2012·BBLOT

L73–61

Alba Berlinv Trier

Trier

Feb 5, 2012·BBL

L74–78

Trierv

Alba Berlin

Dec 10, 2011·BBL

162.8Avg total points

11.4Avg margin

10meetings

League table

BBL · BBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Trier

3–175%

Alba Berlin

2–250%

Recent Form

Trier

6W 9L · last 15

vs Batumi92–59 Oct 7FIB

at Ludwigsburg94–80 Oct 4BBL

vs Jena98–85 Sep 27BBL

vs Bonn106–80 Sep 25BBL

at Basketball Braunschweig107–116 Sep 19BBL

vs Bayern62–99 May 23BBL

at Bayern65–92 May 19BBL

at Bayern80–101 May 17BBL

vs Rostock76–69 May 14BBL

at Vechta83–111 May 12BBL

vs Syntainics MBC85–78 May 10BBL

at Bonn77–102 May 8BBL

vs Oldenburg95–98 May 2BBL

at Jena94–102 Apr 25BBL

vs Bayern80–104 Apr 20BBL

Alba Berlin

9W 6L · last 15

at Slavia Prague ERA NBK110–86 Oct 7CL

vs Bamberg83–98 Oct 3BBL

at Bayern61–95 Sep 26BBL

vs Frankfurt94–83 Sep 24BBL

vs Chemnitz89–82 Sep 18BBL

at Bayern84–81 Jun 21BBL

vs Bayern71–61 Jun 19BBL

vs Bayern83–91 Jun 17BBL

at Bayern86–79 Jun 14BBL

at Bayern94–102 Jun 12BBL

vs Bamberg97–66 Jun 9BBL

at Bamberg67–81 Jun 6BBL

at Bamberg73–81 Jun 4BBL

vs Bamberg85–71 Jun 1BBL

vs Bamberg105–86 May 30BBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Trier

Stats

1–4

Alba Berlin

Alba Berlin leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+1.4pp

57.0%

+1.4pp

58.4%

3-point %+0.7pp

34.4%

+0.7pp

35.1%

Free-throw %+6.2pp

77.4%

+6.2pp

71.2%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.0pp apart

37.3%

1.0pp apart

38.3%

Free throws per shot8.0pp apart

25.8%

8.0pp apart

33.8%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+1.9

31.3

+1.9

33.2

Turnovers per game0.2 fewer

16.0

0.2 fewer

15.8

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.