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Predictions graded

Tofas79Esenler Erokspor87

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–1233%

Edges0–20%

Points by period: Tofas and Esenler Erokspor.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Tofas	17	17	25	20
Esenler Erokspor	29	19	11	28

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Tofas and Esenler Erokspor both sit 1-1 after two league rounds, and Esenler Erokspor won both meetings in 2025-26, so the home side's edge is no formality.

Tofas still look the likelier winners, narrowly, with the expected score at 87-82.5 after 40 minutes. Two prices carry an edge: the first quarter under 44.5 combined points at 1.83, and Tofas to win by three or more at 1.87.

Context

Esenler Erokspor are without Dallas Moore in the backcourt and Muhsin Yaşar inside, though neither absence is confirmed, while Tofas's outside shooting has been a weak point in the opening weeks. The visitors' head-to-head wins last season temper the home side's advantage.

Dallas Moore was presented as the guard who would set Esenler Erokspor's tempo and organise its half-court offence for 2026-27, with Errick McCollum as the leading scorer beside him. He has not featured in the opening league or FIBA Europe Cup games, so Keye van der Vuurst, a former league assist leader, and Melih Tunca have handled the point. A review of the first two BSL weeks noted the backcourt will not convince until Moore is back. Whether he is ready for Tofas is unclear; if he remains out, Esenler Erokspor will again lean on McCollum and Mike Davis to create.
- Dallas Moore was listed as Esenler Erokspor's first point guard in the club's 2026-27 squad overview.
- Esenler Erokspor's guard play has lacked assurance while Dallas Moore has been unavailable.
- Keye van der Vuurst and Melih Tunca have shared the point-guard minutes in the opening games.
Muhsin Yaşar is one of Esenler Erokspor's three specialist centres, alongside Amadou Sow and Metehan Akyel. While he has been out, Kevin Yebo, normally a power forward, has absorbed extra minutes at the four and five, and Jordan Usher has sometimes moved up a position. A league review judged Esenler Erokspor's protection around the rim likely to remain a problem even once Yaşar is back. His availability for the Tofas game is not yet established; without him, the team may again be stretched for size inside.
- Kevin Yebo has been carrying heavy minutes in the four-five rotation while Muhsin Yaşar is out.
- Esenler Erokspor's paint defence is expected to remain a concern when Muhsin Yaşar returns.
- Muhsin Yaşar was listed among Esenler Erokspor's centres for 2026-27.
Tofas opened the league with a win and a loss and began the EuroCup with two victories. The concern raised by a league review is scoring from the perimeter: the team has not been making outside shots, and a shooting wing is viewed as a need. Tre'Shawn Thurman has shifted to the three so Gabe Brown can rest, while Zach Nutall and Shavar Reynolds are expected to supply consistent offence alongside Bryce Jones. If those shots keep missing against Esenler Erokspor, Tofas may become more dependent on their big men and on individual creation.
- Tofas have not been making outside shots in their opening league games.
- Tre'Shawn Thurman has been used at small forward to allow Gabe Brown rest.
- Zach Nutall and Shavar Reynolds are being asked for more consistent offence alongside Bryce Jones.
Egehan Arna is a forward in Ufuk Sarıca's rotation and has started the season as one of its most productive domestic players. The league named him its week-two standout after a game in which he contributed with both scoring and assists, and he followed that with eight assists in the Europe Cup win over Gence BC. That passing from the wing gives Esenler Erokspor another creator while the backcourt is short. Against Tofas, his form could reduce the burden on Errick McCollum and Keye van der Vuurst, particularly if Dallas Moore is still missing.
- Egehan Arna was named the Basketbol Süper Ligi's week-two standout performer.
- Egehan Arna recorded eight assists, five points and three rebounds in the 92-63 Europe Cup win over Gence BC.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

1st Quarter Total PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 44.5

1.83fair 1.62

Market 54.6% · BetBugs 61.7%

+7.1ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. The 1st quarter has fewer than 44.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. Tofas at home should score around the mid-80s, helped by strong two-point shooting and a free-throw rate of 42.9%, while Esenler Erokspor's road offense has generally stayed near 80 points. Esenler Erokspor's better three-point shooting and last season's two wins over Tofas keep the game from being a blowout, so a narrow home win is the central case.

HandicaplostUncertainty band: Lean

Tofas -2.5

1.87fair 1.71

Market 53.5% · BetBugs 58.4%

+4.9ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Tofas cover -2.5 (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this. Tofas at home should score around the mid-80s, helped by strong two-point shooting and a free-throw rate of 42.9%, while Esenler Erokspor's road offense has generally stayed near 80 points. Esenler Erokspor's better three-point shooting and last season's two wins over Tofas keep the game from being a blowout, so a narrow home win is the central case.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Tofas cover +1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tofas and 15 for Esenler Erokspor, across seasons and competitions.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostTofas +1.5Estimated chance65.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Tofas win in about 64 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTofasEstimated chance63.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Tofas are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostTofasEstimated chance61.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.87
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Tofas cover -2.5 (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · HandicaplostTofas -2.5Estimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Tofas are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostTofasEstimated chance58.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Tofas cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tofas and 15 for Esenler Erokspor, across seasons and competitions.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonTofas +0.5Estimated chance58%

Points5 of 12 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Tofas score more than 16.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 83 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tofas and 15 for Esenler Erokspor, across seasons and competitions.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonTofas over 16.5Estimated chance83.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Tofas score more than 17.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 81 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tofas and 15 for Esenler Erokspor, across seasons and competitions.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostTofas over 17.5Estimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Esenler Erokspor score more than 17.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 72 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tofas and 15 for Esenler Erokspor, across seasons and competitions.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostEsenler Erokspor over 17.5Estimated chance71.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Esenler Erokspor score fewer than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tofas and 15 for Esenler Erokspor, across seasons and competitions.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonEsenler Erokspor under 22.5Estimated chance64.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. The 1st quarter has fewer than 44.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostUnder 44.5Estimated chance61.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. The 1st half has fewer than 87.5 points in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonUnder 87.5Estimated chance59.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. The 3rd quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tofas and 15 for Esenler Erokspor, across seasons and competitions.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostOver 40.5Estimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. The game has fewer than 173.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · Total PointswonUnder 173.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Esenler Erokspor score fewer than 42.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostEsenler Erokspor under 42.5Estimated chance57.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Esenler Erokspor score fewer than 21.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostEsenler Erokspor under 21.5Estimated chance56.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. Esenler Erokspor score fewer than 84.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · Team PointslostEsenler Erokspor under 84.5Estimated chance55.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Tofas 87.0, Esenler Erokspor 82.5. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 43.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Tofas and 15 for Esenler Erokspor, across seasons and competitions.
- Tofas scored 90 and 82 in their two home games this season (25 Sep BSL vs Bordo Bandirma, 29 Sep EuroCup vs Chemnitz), averaging 86.0 at home.
- Esenler Erokspor averaged 79.5 points in eight away BSL games from 8 Mar 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, including 79 in their most recent away game on 28 Sep.
- Tofas made 60.0% of two-point shots over 15 tracked games (341/568), compared with Esenler Erokspor's 54.3% (276/508).
- Esenler Erokspor made 33.8% of three-pointers over 15 tracked games (131/388), compared with Tofas's 30.5% (104/341).
- Tofas allowed 95.0 points per game in their two BSL games this season, while Esenler Erokspor allowed 87.5 in their two BSL games.
- Esenler Erokspor won both 2025-26 meetings, 92-70 at home on 31 Oct 2025 and 91-81 in Bursa on 8 Mar 2026.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 43.5Estimated chance55.3%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 9, 15:26

Selected line

173.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

42%

Chance of 174+ points

12 pp below break-even

Over 1.83 needs 55% to break even. BetBugs sees 42%.

Move the line main 173.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 42%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 58%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L81–91

Tofasv

Esenler Erokspor

Mar 8, 2026·BAS

L92–70

Esenler Eroksporv Tofas

Tofas

Oct 31, 2025·BAS

167Avg total points

16Avg margin

2meetings

League table

Basketbol Süper Ligi · Super Lig - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Tofas

1–150%

Esenler Erokspor

1–150%

Recent Form

Tofas

6W 9L · last 15

at JL Bourg89–82 Oct 6EUR

at Denizli Basket87–101 Oct 3BAS

vs Chemnitz82–69 Sep 29EUR

vs Bordo Bandirma90–89 Sep 25BAS

vs Petkim Spor73–71 May 10BAS

vs Karsiyaka87–78 May 3BAS

at Bahcesehir Kol.76–78 Apr 25BAS

vs Besiktas84–98 Apr 17BAS

at Manisa96–100 Apr 12BAS

vs Trabzonspor71–91 Apr 4BAS

at Anadolu Efes82–92 Mar 29BAS

vs Merkezefendi88–93 Mar 21BAS

vs AS Karditsas90–98 Mar 18CL

at Bursaspor115–113 OTMar 15BAS

at AEK Athens88–96 Mar 11CL

Esenler Erokspor

8W 7L · last 15

vs Gence92–63 Oct 7FIB

vs Petkim Spor96–87 Oct 3BAS

at Korfez Basket79–88 Sep 28BAS

vs Fenerbahce73–96 May 29BAS

at Fenerbahce72–94 May 27BAS

at Merkezefendi70–69 May 10BAS

vs Bursaspor82–83 May 2BAS

at Karsiyaka67–68 Apr 26BAS

at Buyukcekmece79–67 Apr 19BAS

at Turk Telekom84–93 Apr 15BAS

vs Mersin SK88–78 Apr 11BAS

vs Galatasaray85–86 Mar 28BAS

at Fenerbahce94–88 Mar 22BAS

vs Petkim Spor74–57 Mar 14BAS

at Tofas91–81 Mar 8BAS

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Tofas

Stats

1–4

Esenler Erokspor

Esenler Erokspor leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+5.7pp

60.0%

+5.7pp

54.3%

3-point %+3.3pp

30.5%

+3.3pp

33.8%

Free-throw %14/15 games+1.0pp

77.2%

+1.0pp

78.2%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s8.7pp apart

24.1%

8.7pp apart

32.8%

Free throws per shot14/15 games6.5pp apart

42.9%

6.5pp apart

36.4%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+1.0

29.0

+1.0

30.0

Turnovers per game0.2 fewer

13.1

0.2 fewer

12.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.