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Predictions graded

South East Melbourne99Melbourne United104

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–1142%

Edges0–10%

Points by period: South East Melbourne and Melbourne United.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
South East Melbourne	30	23	21	25
Melbourne United	17	28	29	30

Quick Take

Pre-match view

South East Melbourne meet Melbourne United three weeks after United's 25-point Throwdown win, yet both are 2-3, the Phoenix have had six days' rest to United's three, and the first derby turned on a 4-of-41 Phoenix night from three.

The Phoenix are the pick to win a close one, ahead after 40 minutes in about 56 of 100 such games. Under 186.5 combined points at 1.91 is the only price worth taking; Over 186.5 at 1.87 is not.

Context

Melbourne United's captain Chris Goulding has not been confirmed available after a low-grade calf injury, the Phoenix are without Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick, and the home side has had six days' rest to United's three.

Goulding is Melbourne United's captain and a long-time perimeter scorer. He sat out the club's recent games after a low-grade calf problem, and his absence would push more shot creation onto Cole Anthony and open minutes for the bench. No update has confirmed whether he will return for this derby.
- Chris Goulding was ruled out of Round 3 with a low-grade calf injury on 30 September.
- The plan was to reassess the captain after two weeks.
South East Melbourne will be without Foster for the second derby, and Pat Ryan steps into the game-night squad in his place. It is a change at the back end of the rotation rather than the starting group, and the club did not detail the injury.
- South East Melbourne ruled Dan Foster out of the derby through injury on 9 October.
- Pat Ryan took Foster's place in the squad.
Goodrick's absence removes a frontcourt option from the Phoenix rotation for the second Throwdown. Ellis Biggar comes into the squad in his place, and the club did not detail the injury.
- South East Melbourne ruled Hunter Goodrick out of the derby through injury on 9 October.
- Ellis Biggar replaced Goodrick in the squad.
The clubs meet again three weeks after United's 25-point win inside John Cain Arena, where the Phoenix endured a poor shooting night. United's recent and historical edge frames the rematch, though both clubs have since won a game.
- Melbourne United won Throwdown 33 86-61 on 24 September.
- South East Melbourne shot 4 of 41 from three-point range in that game.
- A win on Saturday would extend Melbourne United's record in the matchup to 24-10.
- Cole Anthony finished the first derby with 18 points, six assists and five rebounds.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Total PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 186.5

1.91fair 1.60

Market 52.4% · BetBugs 62.5%

+10.1ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. The game has fewer than 186.5 points (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this. These are two evenly matched Melbourne sides, so the home court and the extra three days' rest edge South East Melbourne slightly despite United's 25-point win in the first derby, which came on an extreme 4-of-41 Phoenix three-point night. Melbourne United's better defence keeps it close, but the Phoenix's superior shooting percentages and lower turnover rate at home point to a narrow home win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. South East Melbourne cover +3.5 (overtime included) in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · HandicaplostSouth East Melbourne +3.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. South East Melbourne cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Melbourne United, across seasons and competitions.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostSouth East Melbourne +2.5Estimated chance66.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. South East Melbourne cover +1.5 in the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonSouth East Melbourne +1.5Estimated chance62.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. South East Melbourne win in about 58 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. South East Melbourne cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Melbourne United, across seasons and competitions.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostSouth East Melbourne +0.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. South East Melbourne cover +0.5 in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonSouth East Melbourne +0.5Estimated chance56.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. South East Melbourne are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostSouth East MelbourneEstimated chance56.1%

Points6 of 12 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. Melbourne United score fewer than 95.5 points (overtime included) in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · Team PointslostMelbourne United under 95.5Estimated chance71.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. Melbourne United score fewer than 48.5 points in the 1st half in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonMelbourne United under 48.5Estimated chance71.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. Melbourne United score fewer than 24.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonMelbourne United under 24.5Estimated chance67.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. The 1st half has fewer than 94.5 points in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 94.5Estimated chance65.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. The 1st quarter has fewer than 47.5 points in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonUnder 47.5Estimated chance63.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. The game has fewer than 186.5 points (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · Total PointslostUnder 186.5Estimated chance62.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 47.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 47.5Estimated chance62.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. Melbourne United score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Melbourne United, across seasons and competitions.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonMelbourne United over 20.5Estimated chance61.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. Melbourne United score fewer than 23.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostMelbourne United under 23.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. South East Melbourne score fewer than 23.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Melbourne United, across seasons and competitions.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonSouth East Melbourne under 23.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. The 3rd quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for South East Melbourne and 15 for Melbourne United, across seasons and competitions.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 43.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: South East Melbourne 91.5, Melbourne United 88.8. South East Melbourne score fewer than 23.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Both clubs are 2-3 after five NBL rounds: South East Melbourne average 90.6 points scored and 89.8 conceded, Melbourne United 90.8 and 88.0 (2026-27 standings, 9 October 2026).
- The only meeting this season was Melbourne United's 86-61 win in South East Melbourne on 24 September; the Phoenix shot just 4 of 41 from three that night against a season-long 31.2% rate, making it a shooting outlier rather than a stable gap.
- Across this season's tracked box scores, South East Melbourne give away 9.2 turnovers per game against Melbourne United's 11.9, and shoot slightly better (52.4% on twos, 78.7% free throws versus 51.5% and 74.0%).
- Rest favours the home side: South East Melbourne last played 4 October (six days) while Melbourne United played 7 October (three days).
- South East Melbourne are confirmed without bench pieces Dan Foster and Hunter Goodrick (club team news, 9 October), both low-minute rotation players.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostSouth East Melbourne under 23.5Estimated chance55.1%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 9, 15:15

Selected line

186.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

38%

Chance of 187+ points

16 pp below break-even

Over 1.87 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 38%.

Move the line main 186.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 38%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 63%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L61–86

South East Melbournev

Melbourne United

Sep 24, 2026·NBL

L95–91

Melbourne Unitedv

South East Melbourne

Feb 19, 2026·NBL

W111–86

South East Melbournev

Melbourne United

Dec 7, 2025·NBL

L81–92

South East Melbournev

Melbourne United

Nov 8, 2025·NBL

L103–83

Melbourne Unitedv

South East Melbourne

Sep 25, 2025·NBL

L103–93

Melbourne Unitedv

South East Melbourne

Feb 8, 2025·NBL

W109–97

South East Melbournev

Melbourne United

Dec 15, 2024·NBL

W84–93

Melbourne Unitedv

South East Melbourne

Oct 20, 2024·NBL

L84–96

South East Melbournev

Melbourne United

Sep 26, 2024·NBL

L99–83

Melbourne Unitedv

South East Melbourne

Feb 3, 2024·NBL

183Avg total points

14.4Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

South East Melbourne

2–340%

Melbourne United

2–340%

Recent Form

South East Melbourne

7W 8L · last 15

vs Illawarra Hawks113–96 Oct 4NBL

at Perth88–92 Oct 2NBL

vs Melbourne United61–86 Sep 24NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers91–96 Sep 21NBL

at Perth100–79 Sep 19NBL

at Adelaide96–108 Mar 17NBL

vs Adelaide101–92 Mar 14NBL

at Adelaide97–104 Mar 10NBL

vs Perth111–94 Mar 4NBL

at Melbourne United91–95 Feb 19NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers120–104 Feb 14NBL

vs Sydney88–114 Feb 8NBL

at New Zealand Breakers114–83 Feb 5NBL

at Adelaide97–77 Jan 31NBL

at Perth93–101 Jan 28NBL

Melbourne United

8W 7L · last 15

at Adelaide96–91 Oct 7NBL

vs Cairns Taipans95–107 Oct 3NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers82–84 Oct 1NBL

at South East Melbourne86–61 Sep 24NBL

vs Adelaide95–97 Sep 19NBL

at Perth77–95 Mar 7NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers82–68 Mar 5NBL

vs South East Melbourne95–91 Feb 19NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks91–100 Feb 15NBL

at Cairns Taipans89–85 Feb 12NBL

vs Adelaide76–87 Feb 7NBL

at New Zealand Breakers95–97 Jan 30NBL

at Perth74–73 Jan 25NBL

vs Brisbane Bullets98–66 Jan 21NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers79–77 Jan 17NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

South East Melbourne

Stats

5–0

Melbourne United

14 games

South East Melbourne leads in 5 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 3–0

2-point %+0.9pp

52.4%

+0.9pp

51.5%

3-point %+0.5pp

31.2%

+0.5pp

30.7%

Free-throw %+4.7pp

78.7%

+4.7pp

74.0%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s4.0pp apart

36.0%

4.0pp apart

32.0%

Free throws per shot2.7pp apart

25.9%

2.7pp apart

28.6%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+0.8

37.7

+0.8

36.9

Turnovers per game2.7 fewer

9.2

2.7 fewer

11.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.