Petkim Spor90Korfez Basket91

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Points by period: Petkim Spor and Korfez Basket.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Petkim Spor	20	18	31	21
Korfez Basket	26	14	19	32

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Petkim Spor are back after a week off to face a Korfez side on their third road game in six days, and a 40-minute score of roughly Petkim 86 to Korfez 83 makes the hosts the more likely winner.

Korfez pushed Fenerbahce to a point in the league, so this is no formality. Korfez Basket +2.5 at 1.8 needs about a 51% chance and does not justify a bet; the evidence is too thin to back any other price.

Context

Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 October; Korfez play a third road game in six days after losses at Fenerbahce and in Tallinn, and Boo Buie missed the latest game, leaving their backcourt short.

Korfez controlled their FIBA Europe Cup opener for three quarters in Tallinn. They led 68-51 at the start of the fourth and were still ahead with 37 minutes played before Kalev finished on a 35-10 run. Alex Reese scored 23 points, Johnny Davis had 16 points and six assists and Oscar Cluff added 15 points and 12 rebounds, but the collapse left Korfez with a loss in Group F. It followed an 85-84 league defeat at Fenerbahce and came from a rotation that looked short late. Korfez now visit Petkim in the league, where how coach Serhan Kavut manages his main players after two road games in six days is one of the open questions.
- Korfez entered the fourth quarter 68-51 ahead in Tallinn on 7 October.
- Kalev closed with a 35-10 final period to win 86-78.
- Alex Reese scored 23 points, Johnny Davis added 16 points and six assists, and Oscar Cluff posted 15 points and 12 rebounds.
Korfez stayed with a EuroLeague side for 40 minutes at Fenerbahce on 4 October. They trailed 68-55 early in the fourth quarter before a pressing run dragged the margin down to one, and Filip Barna's final shot rimmed out in the 85-84 loss. Barna finished with 18 points, Matt Mitchell added 15 and Johnny Davis 14, while Boo Buie scored 10 first-half points. It was Korfez's first league defeat after their week-one win and showed the top of their rotation can compete with the strongest teams in the league. Three days later that core opened the FIBA Europe Cup in Tallinn.
- Korfez trailed 68-55 early in the fourth quarter before cutting the deficit to one.
- Filip Barna scored 18 points, Matt Mitchell 15 and Johnny Davis 14.
- Boo Buie scored 10 first-half points as Korfez went in 45-44 down at the break.
Korfez opened the season by beating Esenler Erokspor 88-79 at home on 28 September. It was the first win for a squad rebuilt after last season, with Serhan Kavut continuing as coach and Johnny Davis, Filip Barna and Matt Mitchell among the main scorers. Korfez had prepared for the league through the Champions League qualifiers, beating Kolossos 91-79 and losing 94-93 to Promitheas on a Shannon Evans three at the buzzer. That competitive start carried into the Fenerbahce game, which Korfez lost by one, and the 88-79 result remains their only league win going into the Petkim fixture.
- Serhan Kavut's side won their opening league fixture 88-79 at home on 28 September.
- Korfez had earlier beaten Kolossos 91-79 and lost 94-93 to Promitheas in the Champions League qualifiers.
Mert Emre Ekşioğlu joined Korfez as a domestic addition and was their leading Turkish player before tearing an anterior cruciate ligament in training. The injury was found in checks after a session and required surgery, ruling him out for the rest of the season. His absence leaves Korfez thinner behind guards Mert Akay, Altan Çamoğlu and Berk Can Akın, in a rotation already carrying league and FIBA Europe Cup commitments. Serhan Kavut has leaned on Johnny Davis, Filip Barna, Matt Mitchell, Alex Reese and Oscar Cluff, and losing a domestic option increases the load on that core group.
- The injury was identified in checks after a training session and required surgery.
- Mert Emre Ekşioğlu has been ruled out for the rest of the season.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. Petkim Spor cover +3.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 74 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Petkim Spor and 5 for Korfez Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonPetkim Spor +3.5Estimated chance73.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. Petkim Spor cover +1.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Petkim Spor and 5 for Korfez Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonPetkim Spor +1.5Estimated chance62.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. Petkim Spor win in about 61 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPetkim SporEstimated chance61.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. Petkim Spor are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostPetkim SporEstimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. Petkim Spor are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostPetkim SporEstimated chance56.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. Petkim Spor cover -2.5 (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · HandicaplostPetkim Spor -2.5Estimated chance55.6%

Points5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. Petkim Spor score more than 17.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 77 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Petkim Spor and 5 for Korfez Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonPetkim Spor over 17.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. Petkim Spor score more than 18.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 74 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Petkim Spor and 5 for Korfez Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostPetkim Spor over 18.5Estimated chance74.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. The 3rd quarter has more than 37.5 points in about 72 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Petkim Spor and 5 for Korfez Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 37.5Estimated chance72.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. Korfez Basket score fewer than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Petkim Spor and 5 for Korfez Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonKorfez Basket under 21.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. The 1st quarter has fewer than 43.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostUnder 43.5Estimated chance56.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. Korfez Basket score fewer than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Petkim Spor and 5 for Korfez Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonKorfez Basket under 21.5Estimated chance56.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. Petkim Spor score more than 85.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · Team PointswonPetkim Spor over 85.5Estimated chance55.6%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Petkim Spor 86.4, Korfez Basket 82.8. The 2nd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Petkim Spor and 5 for Korfez Basket, across seasons and competitions.
- Petkim are 1-1 in the 2026-27 Basketbol Süper Ligi, scoring 85 at home vs Denizli (26 Sep) and 87 away at Esenler Erokspor (3 Oct), for 86.0 points per game in a two-game sample.
- Korfez have scored 78, 84, 88, 93 and 91 in five competitive games since 15 Sep (Champions League, league and FIBA Europe Cup), averaging 86.8 points.
- Petkim have 6.9 days of rest since 3 Oct, while Korfez play their third road game in six days on 10 Oct after losing 86-78 in Tallinn on 7 Oct.
- Korfez's Boo Buie (13.3 points, 30.1 minutes per game over four games) was absent from the latest box score on 7 Oct, thinning the backcourt.
- Korfez have conceded 79 or more in all five games tracked, and 84-85 away at Fenerbahce in the league on 4 Oct.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 41.5Estimated chance55.4%