NBLFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Perth100New Zealand Breakers84

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 10:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: Perth and New Zealand Breakers.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Perth	21	20	29	30
New Zealand Breakers	22	16	28	18

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Perth have won the last four meetings with New Zealand, including 97-93 at home on 26 September, but the Breakers arrive shooting better from three and inside the arc and sit 3-2.

A tight home win is the likeliest result, with the expected score after 40 minutes 94.2 to 91.3. The one price that holds up is over 182.5 combined points at 1.89, which carries a potential edge of about six points.

Context

Availability is unsettled on both sides: Perth look likely to be without Jo Lual-Acuil (calf), while New Zealand are expected to be without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick, with Brandon Knight and Nelson Weidemann possible but unconfirmed.

Perth signed 10-year NBA guard Brandon Knight in September, but his arrival in Australia was delayed and he has not played yet this season. Coach John Rillie said after Knight's first practice that the veteran looked good while the club also wanted to build him up for the whole season. Knight now slots into a Perth side that has won three straight games, addressing a point-guard need. His introduction is expected to cut Elijah Pepper's ball-handling load and return other Wildcats to their preferred positions. The uncertainty is how quickly Knight adapts to the NBL in his first appearance.
- Brandon Knight will make his NBL debut for Perth against New Zealand Breakers, replacing Jimmy Whitt on the roster.
- Knight signed a one-year deal in September after 451 NBA games and most recently averaged 18.0 points and 6.3 assists in Puerto Rico.
- Coach John Rillie said Knight's introduction will lower Elijah Pepper's usage and move other players back to their natural positions.
Jo Lual-Acuil has been managing a calf problem and missed Perth's most recent game, a 92-88 home win over South East Melbourne on 2 October. Ahead of the Breakers clash, coach John Rillie indicated the centre is unlikely to be ready. His absence leaves Perth thinner in the frontcourt against a New Zealand side that starts Sam Mennenga and Charles Bediako. Whether Lual-Acuil is cleared late is the remaining uncertainty.
- Coach John Rillie all but ruled out Jo Lual-Acuil returning from a calf injury to face New Zealand Breakers.
- Lual-Acuil was also unavailable for Perth's win over South East Melbourne on 2 October.
New Zealand have been short in the backcourt since Josiah-Jordan James tore a hamstring, leaving heavy ball-handling duties on Parker Jackson-Cartwright. Nelson Weidemann, a 27-year-old German guard who worked with coach Gordon Herbert in Germany's national programme, has been added on a short-term injury replacement deal. He most recently played in Germany and previously in the EuroCup. The club has said he may be available during the current road trip through Perth, Sydney and Tasmania, so his involvement against the Wildcats is possible but not certain.
- New Zealand Breakers have signed German guard Nelson Weidemann as a short-term injury replacement for Josiah-Jordan James.
- Weidemann, 27, previously played under Breakers coach Gordon Herbert with Germany's national team.
- The club expects Weidemann may be available during a three-game road trip beginning in Perth.
Josiah-Jordan James suffered a torn left hamstring in September, prompting New Zealand to bring in cover. General manager Dillon Boucher said on 3 October that James was three weeks into his recovery and would be assessed at the four-to-six-week mark, putting a return around mid-to-late October. That makes him unavailable for the Perth game. A faster-than-expected recovery or a setback would change the timeline.
- Josiah-Jordan James tore his left hamstring in September and was expected to miss four to six weeks.
- Breakers general manager Dillon Boucher said on 3 October that James was three weeks post-injury and would be reassessed at the four-to-six-week mark.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Total PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 182.5

1.89fair 1.69

Market 52.9% · BetBugs 59.1%

+6.2ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. The game has more than 182.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this. Perth hold a small home edge and have beaten New Zealand in each of the last four meetings, including 97-93 at home in late September, but their defence has been leaky. New Zealand have the better shooting and a stronger overall points margin, so this should stay close with Perth narrowly ahead.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. Perth cover +5.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 81 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Perth and 15 for New Zealand Breakers, across seasons and competitions.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonPerth +5.5Estimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. Perth cover +4.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 76 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Perth and 15 for New Zealand Breakers, across seasons and competitions.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonPerth +4.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. Perth win in about 59 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPerthEstimated chance59.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. Perth are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonPerthEstimated chance56.8%

Points4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. Perth score more than 18.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 82 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Perth and 15 for New Zealand Breakers, across seasons and competitions.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonPerth over 18.5Estimated chance82.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. New Zealand Breakers score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Perth and 15 for New Zealand Breakers, across seasons and competitions.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonNew Zealand Breakers over 19.5Estimated chance72.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.89
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. The game has more than 182.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 182.5Estimated chance59.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 47.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Perth and 15 for New Zealand Breakers, across seasons and competitions.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 47.5Estimated chance58.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. Perth score more than 92.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · Team PointswonPerth over 92.5Estimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. New Zealand Breakers score more than 89.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · Team PointslostNew Zealand Breakers over 89.5Estimated chance58.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. New Zealand Breakers score more than 44.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostNew Zealand Breakers over 44.5Estimated chance56.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Perth 94.2, New Zealand Breakers 91.3. The 1st half has more than 91.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Perth have scored 91.5 points a game over their four 2026-27 NBL outings (all at home, latest 2 October) but conceded 94.5, with the only loss a 79-100 home defeat to South East Melbourne.
- New Zealand average 91.8 points scored and 82.6 conceded over five 2026-27 NBL games (latest 4 October), including an 88-72 road win in Adelaide.
- New Zealand shoot 39.8% from three (128/322) and 56.8% inside (332/584) across 13 tracked games this season, both better than Perth's 33.8% (141/417) and 54.9% (322/586) across 15.
- Perth beat New Zealand 97-93 at home on 26 September 2026, the only meeting of the season, and have won the last four head-to-head meetings dating back to September 2025.
- Perth centre Jo Lual-Acuil is doubtful with a calf injury after missing the 2 October win, and New Zealand are without Josiah-Jordan James (hamstring) and Preston Le Gassick; Perth's Brandon Knight and New Zealand's Nelson Weidemann are possible but unconfirmed debutants.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostOver 91.5Estimated chance55.4%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 9, 15:15

Selected line

182.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

59%

Chance of 183+ points

+6 pp above break-even

Over 1.89 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 59%.

Move the line main 182.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 59%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 41%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W97–93

Perthv

New Zealand Breakers

Sep 26, 2026·NBL

W91–99

New Zealand Breakersv Perth

Perth

Jan 4, 2026·NBL

W88–75

Perthv

New Zealand Breakers

Nov 15, 2025·NBL

W78–89

New Zealand Breakersv Perth

Perth

Sep 27, 2025·NBL

W86–96

New Zealand Breakersv Perth

Perth

Jan 5, 2025·NBL

W123–112

Perthv

New Zealand Breakers

Dec 1, 2024·NBL

L89–85

New Zealand Breakersv Perth

Perth

Oct 19, 2024·NBL

L78–89

Perthv

New Zealand Breakers

Feb 4, 2024·NBL

W102–108

New Zealand Breakersv Perth

Perth

Jan 7, 2024·NBL

W94–76

Perthv

New Zealand Breakers

Nov 10, 2023·NBL

184.8Avg total points

9.6Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Perth

3–175%

New Zealand Breakers

3–260%

Recent Form

Perth

9W 6L · last 15

vs South East Melbourne92–88 Oct 2NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers97–93 Sep 26NBL

vs Adelaide98–97 Sep 24NBL

vs South East Melbourne79–100 Sep 19NBL

vs Sydney75–89 Mar 14NBL

at Sydney104–105 Mar 11NBL

vs Melbourne United95–77 Mar 7NBL

at South East Melbourne94–111 Mar 4NBL

vs Adelaide86–74 Feb 20NBL

at Sydney84–102 Feb 15NBL

vs Brisbane Bullets94–75 Feb 13NBL

vs Cairns Taipans98–84 Feb 6NBL

at Illawarra Hawks106–99 Jan 31NBL

vs South East Melbourne101–93 Jan 28NBL

vs Melbourne United73–74 Jan 25NBL

New Zealand Breakers

8W 7L · last 15

at Adelaide88–72 Oct 4NBL

vs Cairns Taipans98–75 Sep 30NBL

at Perth93–97 Sep 26NBL

at Brisbane Bullets85–88 Sep 22NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks95–81 Sep 20NBL

at Adelaide111–107 Feb 22NBL

vs Cairns Taipans115–84 Feb 19NBL

at Adelaide89–92 Feb 14NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks106–95 Feb 7NBL

vs South East Melbourne83–114 Feb 5NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers89–91 Feb 1NBL

vs Melbourne United97–95 Jan 30NBL

vs Adelaide110–112 OTJan 23NBL

at South East Melbourne116–123 Jan 21NBL

at Cairns Taipans104–86 Jan 17NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Perth

Stats

2–3

New Zealand Breakers

13 games

New Zealand Breakers leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+1.9pp

54.9%

+1.9pp

56.8%

3-point %+6.0pp

33.8%

+6.0pp

39.8%

Free-throw %+1.9pp

75.3%

+1.9pp

73.4%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.8pp apart

32.3%

1.8pp apart

30.5%

Free throws per shot0.1pp apart

31.9%

0.1pp apart

32.0%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+1.9

34.9

+1.9

33.0

Turnovers per game0.2 fewer

11.3

0.2 fewer

11.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.