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Predictions graded

PAOK86Lefkadas73

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: PAOK and Lefkadas.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
PAOK	22	20	22	22
Lefkadas	18	13	23	19

Quick Take

Pre-match view

PAOK, unbeaten in the Basket League and EuroCup, host newly promoted Lefkadas, who lost their opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes.

PAOK should win comfortably — the expected score after 40 minutes is 92.3-73.2. Lefkadas under 18.5 points in the second quarter at 1.93 is the one price with a small edge; Lefkadas with an 18.5-point start at 1.86 does not hold up.

Context

PAOK's confirmed signing of Donatas Motiejunas could add a further inside option, Nikos Chougkaz is edging back, and the game falls between EuroCup fixtures, so the main sporting question is how heavily PAOK rotate against a promoted side with one top-flight game behind it.

Motiejunas arrived with 262 NBA games and 187 EuroLeague appearances plus two French titles at Monaco, and played last season at Red Star Belgrade. He said he joined after coach Andrea Trinchieri explained the role he wanted. His addition deepens a frontcourt that already includes Kyle Alexander, Ben Moore and Clifford Omoruyi, giving PAOK another experienced inside option for the game against Lefkadas, although his first appearance is still to come.
- PAOK announced the signing of Donatas Motiejunas until the end of the 2026-27 season on 4 October.
- The 36-year-old Lithuanian centre has 262 NBA games and 187 EuroLeague appearances and won two French league titles with Monaco.
- He spent last season with Red Star Belgrade.
Motiejunas signed on 4 October and has been building up in Thessaloniki. PAOK's own preview discussed a scenario for his debut in the Lefkadas game, and the club has counted him down towards his first appearance while he works on his adaptation. Whether he plays remains a decision for coach Andrea Trinchieri. If used, the 36-year-old would give PAOK a further experienced option inside against a newly promoted opponent.
- PAOK outlined a scenario for Motiejunas to make his debut in the home game with Lefkadas.
- Motiejunas had not yet played for PAOK before that point.
- Motiejunas said he chose PAOK after coach Andrea Trinchieri explained the role he wanted.
Nikos Chougkaz has been edging back towards PAOK's rotation and was named alongside new signing Donatas Motiejunas in the club's countdown towards their return. His availability for the Lefkadas game is not confirmed. If he is cleared to play he would add another frontcourt option for coach Andrea Trinchieri, but the extent of any role remains open.
- PAOK's 8 October team news linked Nikos Chougkaz and Donatas Motiejunas in a countdown towards their return to action.
- Chougkaz is a Greek forward in PAOK's squad for the 2026-27 season.
PAOK began the league campaign with an 88-85 road win at Mykonos and are unbeaten across competitions, having also beaten Panathinaikos in the Super Cup and Manresa in the EuroCup. A home win over promoted Lefkadas would give them a 2-0 Basket League start for the first time in 13 years, adding early momentum to a season in which the club is also competing in Europe.
- PAOK won their Basket League opener 88-85 at Mykonos on 3 October.
- PAOK have not started a Basket League season with two wins in 13 years.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

2nd Quarter Team PointswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Lefkadas under 18.5

1.93fair 1.79

Market 51.8% · BetBugs 55.7%

+3.9ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. Lefkadas score fewer than 18.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this. PAOK are unbeaten in the early season, scoring in the mid-to-high 80s against stronger opposition than Lefkadas, and at home against a newly promoted side they should control both ends. Lefkadas put up 75 in their opener but conceded 91, so a similar defensive performance points to a comfortable home win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. PAOK win in about 93 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPAOKEstimated chance93.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 93 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonPAOKEstimated chance92.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 85 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonPAOKEstimated chance85.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 77 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonPAOKEstimated chance77.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. PAOK cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 74 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for PAOK and 15 for Lefkadas, across seasons and competitions.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostPAOK +0.5Estimated chance73.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. PAOK cover -1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for PAOK and 15 for Lefkadas, across seasons and competitions.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonPAOK -1.5Estimated chance73.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonPAOKEstimated chance71.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. PAOK are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostPAOKEstimated chance68.9%

Points3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. PAOK score fewer than 23.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonPAOK under 23.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. PAOK score more than 45.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostPAOK over 45.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.93
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. Lefkadas score fewer than 18.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonLefkadas under 18.5Estimated chance55.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: PAOK 92.3, Lefkadas 73.2. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 42.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- PAOK have scored 84-96 points in each of their last five competitive games (Super Cup, EuroCup and Basket League, 26 Sep-6 Oct 2026), averaging 87.2.
- PAOK have started 2026-27 unbeaten across competitions, including an 88-85 Basket League win at Mykonos on 3 October and a 93-78 EuroCup home win over Manresa on 30 September.
- Lefkadas lost their Basket League opener 91-75 at Kolossos Rhodes on 3 October, allowing 91 points in their only top-flight game this season.
- Lefkadas' only tracked box score this season shows 25 rebounds and a 7/13 free-throw line (13 attempts) in that 3 October loss, a small frontcourt and a thin sample.
- Lefkadas' prior results come from the second division A2 (Jan-Apr 2026), a lower level than the Basket League.
- The two most recent head-to-head meetings are from the 2016-17 season (84-67 PAOK home, 84-78 Lefkadas home), too old to reflect current rosters.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 42.5Estimated chance55.4%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 9, 15:33

Selected line

166.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

48%

Chance of 167+ points

3 pp below break-even

Over 1.96 needs 51% to break even. BetBugs sees 48%.

Move the line main 166.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W84–67

PAOKv

Lefkadas

Jan 21, 2017·BAS

L84–78

Lefkadasv

PAOK

Oct 8, 2016·BAS

156.5Avg total points

11.5Avg margin

2meetings

League table

Basket League · Basket League - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

PAOK

1–0100%

Lefkadas

0–10%

Recent Form

PAOK

10W 5L · last 15

at KK Bosna75–72 Oct 6EUR

at Mykonos88–85 Oct 3BAS

vs Manresa93–78 Sep 30EUR

at Olympiacos96–101 Sep 27SUP

at Panathinaikos84–82 Sep 26SUP

vs Panathinaikos94–102 May 30BAS

at Panathinaikos102–114 OTMay 28BAS

at Peristeri77–72 May 6BAS

vs Peristeri91–79 May 3BAS

at Bilbao74–89 Apr 29FIB

vs Maroussi101–85 Apr 25BAS

vs Bilbao79–73 Apr 22FIB

at Iraklis76–72 Apr 18BAS

vs Aris88–77 Apr 15BAS

at Murcia85–89 Apr 8FIB

Lefkadas

11W 4L · last 15

at Kolossos Rhodes75–91 Oct 3BAS

at Dafni65–54 Apr 4A2

vs Psychikou87–78 Mar 28A2

vs Peiramatiko Machites55–63 Mar 21A2

at Koroivos73–68 Mar 18A2

vs Volos64–53 Mar 14A2

at Panerythraikos80–79 Mar 7A2

vs Lavrio88–80 Feb 28A2

at Papagou72–64 Feb 21A2

vs Egaleo77–71 Feb 15A2

at Proteas Voulas67–73 Feb 12A2

vs Vikos88–81 Feb 9A2

vs Chalkida76–71 Jan 24A2

at Sofadon67–61 Jan 17A2

vs Maroussi70–76 Jan 14GRE

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

PAOK

Stats

3–2

Lefkadas

1 games

PAOK leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+3.9pp

59.8%

+3.9pp

55.9%

3-point %+7.2pp

34.0%

+7.2pp

41.2%

Free-throw %14/1 games+21.4pp

75.2%

+21.4pp

53.8%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s4.1pp apart

35.9%

4.1pp apart

31.8%

Free throws per shot14/1 games3.4pp apart

28.9%

3.4pp apart

25.5%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+8.1

33.1

+8.1

25.0

Turnovers per game0.9 fewer

12.9

0.9 fewer

12.0

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.