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Predictions graded

Bahcesehir Kol.92Karsiyaka82

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–0100%

Points by period: Bahcesehir Kol. and Karsiyaka.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Bahcesehir Kol.	20	22	28	22
Karsiyaka	13	21	24	24

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Bahcesehir's unbeaten league start and stronger shooting meet a Karsiyaka side that won 88-74 at Bahcesehir on Apr 18, 2026 and has conceded just 71 and 73 points in two league games.

Bahcesehir look the likely winners, by roughly 89-77 after 40 minutes. No price we hold is worth backing.

Context

Both teams come off wins and have had at least six days since their last completed game, with no confirmed availability problems. The sporting tension is Bahcesehir's 84-to-98 scoring start against a Karsiyaka defence that has conceded 71 and 73 in two league games.

That April result is the latest of ten meetings between the clubs, and four of the last six were decided by 14 points or more. The three most recent meetings have all gone to the visiting team, including Bahcesehir's 74-71 win in Izmir on Dec 20, 2025. It is one strand of evidence, but it is the freshest on how this matchup has run.
- Apr 18, 2026: Karsiyaka 88, Bahcesehir 74 (away win).
- Dec 20, 2025: Karsiyaka 71, Bahcesehir 74 (away win).
- Jan 25, 2025: Karsiyaka 65, Bahcesehir 80 (away win).
Overtime means the 40 minutes ended level, so that win was not a comfortable one despite the final margin. Their other 2026-27 league game, a 73-72 loss at Turk Telekom on Sep 26, was decided by a single point, giving two close and low-scoring league outings. It is a short base of evidence against a Bahcesehir side that has scored 84, 91 and 98 in three wins.
- Oct 2, 2026: Karsiyaka 78, Galatasaray 71 (overtime).
- Sep 26, 2026: Turk Telekom 73, Karsiyaka 72.
- Karsiyaka have conceded 71 and 73 points in these two league games.
That is the highest scoring average on Karsiyaka's early-season list, ahead of Steven Enoch's 11.0 points in two games and Markel Starks's 11.0 in one. Two games is very little to lean on, and one of them was the Oct 2 overtime win over Galatasaray. If the bench scoring carries over, it is the clearest route for Karsiyaka to stay with Bahcesehir's 84-to-98 start.
- El Amin Ishmael: 20.5 points, 29.6 minutes, 2 games, 0 starts, through Oct 2, 2026.
- Steven Enoch: 11.0 points in 2 games; Markel Starks: 11.0 points in 1 game.
Missing from a game list is an observation, not a confirmed absence, so his availability for Oct 10 is unknown. If he does not play, Bahcesehir's backcourt work falls further on Flynn Malachi and Marcquise Reed, who have appeared in all three games at 27.2 and 20.5 minutes. Bahcesehir won the Oct 4 league game at Cayirova without him.
- Aleksa Avramovic: 2 games this season, latest appearance Sep 30, 2026.
- Flynn Malachi: 15.0 points in 27.2 minutes over three games this season.
- Marcquise Reed: 12.7 points in 20.5 minutes over three games this season.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bahcesehir Kol. 88.8, Karsiyaka 77.0. Bahcesehir Kol. win in about 82 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Bahcesehir have started 2026-27 with three wins, scoring 84, 91 and 98 points in games from Sep 27 to Oct 4.
- Bahcesehir's 15-game shooting is 56.9% on two-pointers and 36.8% on three-pointers, while Karsiyaka's is 52.6% and 33.2%.
- Karsiyaka's two 2026-27 league games produced 72 points at Turk Telekom (Sep 26) and 71 regulation points in the overtime win over Galatasaray (Oct 2).
- Karsiyaka have allowed only 73 and 71 regulation points in those two games, but Bahcesehir scored 98 at home against Fenerbahce on Sep 27.
- In the most recent head-to-head (Apr 18, 2026), Karsiyaka won 88-74 at Bahcesehir, though Bahcesehir won 74-71 at Karsiyaka on Dec 20, 2025.
- Over 15 tracked games Bahcesehir average 32.1 rebounds to Karsiyaka's 30.1, with similar turnovers (12.3 vs 12.5).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBahcesehir Kol.Estimated chance82.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bahcesehir Kol. 88.8, Karsiyaka 77.0. Bahcesehir Kol. are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 81 of 100 games like this.
- Bahcesehir have started 2026-27 with three wins, scoring 84, 91 and 98 points in games from Sep 27 to Oct 4.
- Bahcesehir's 15-game shooting is 56.9% on two-pointers and 36.8% on three-pointers, while Karsiyaka's is 52.6% and 33.2%.
- Karsiyaka's two 2026-27 league games produced 72 points at Turk Telekom (Sep 26) and 71 regulation points in the overtime win over Galatasaray (Oct 2).
- Karsiyaka have allowed only 73 and 71 regulation points in those two games, but Bahcesehir scored 98 at home against Fenerbahce on Sep 27.
- In the most recent head-to-head (Apr 18, 2026), Karsiyaka won 88-74 at Bahcesehir, though Bahcesehir won 74-71 at Karsiyaka on Dec 20, 2025.
- Over 15 tracked games Bahcesehir average 32.1 rebounds to Karsiyaka's 30.1, with similar turnovers (12.3 vs 12.5).
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonBahcesehir Kol.Estimated chance80.9%

L74–88

Bahcesehir Kol.v

Karsiyaka

Apr 18, 2026·BAS

W71–74

Karsiyakav

Bahcesehir Kol.

Dec 20, 2025·BAS

W65–80

Karsiyakav

Bahcesehir Kol.

Jan 25, 2025·SUP

W82–68

Bahcesehir Kol.v

Karsiyaka

Oct 6, 2024·SUP

L92–76

Pinar Karsiyakav

Bahcesehir Kol.

Mar 30, 2024·SUP

L85–93

Bahcesehir Kol.v

Pinar Karsiyaka

Dec 1, 2023·SUP

L86–82

Pinar Karsiyakav

Bahcesehir Kol.

May 6, 2023·SUP

W78–73

Bahcesehir Kol.v

Pinar Karsiyaka

Dec 31, 2022·SUP

W104–99

Bahcesehir Kol.v

Pinar Karsiyaka

Jan 15, 2022·SUPOT

L90–81

Pinar Karsiyakav

Bahcesehir Kol.

Oct 2, 2021·SUP

164.1Avg total points

9.3Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Basketbol Süper Ligi · Super Lig - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

1

Bahcesehir Kol.

2–0100%

8

Karsiyaka

1–150%

Recent Form

Bahcesehir Kol.

9W 6L · last 15

W

at Cayirova84–76 Oct 4BAS

W

vs BC Roma91–78 Sep 30EUR

W

vs Fenerbahce98–83 Sep 27BAS

L

at Besiktas71–80 Jun 10BAS

L

vs Besiktas71–73 Jun 8BAS

W

vs Besiktas98–95 OTJun 6BAS

W

at Besiktas101–79 Jun 4BAS

L

at Besiktas79–82 Jun 2BAS

W

at Trabzonspor94–78 May 28BAS

W

vs Trabzonspor91–65 May 26BAS

L

vs Fenerbahce86–96 May 16BAS

W

at Petkim Spor95–76 May 1BAS

W

vs Tofas78–76 Apr 25BAS

L

vs Karsiyaka74–88 Apr 18BAS

L

at Besiktas80–87 Apr 11BAS

Karsiyaka

6W 9L · last 15

W

vs Galatasaray78–71 OTOct 2BAS

L

at Turk Telekom72–73 Sep 26BAS

W

vs Bursaspor84–82 May 10BAS

L

at Tofas78–87 May 3BAS

W

vs Esenler Erokspor68–67 Apr 26BAS

W

at Bahcesehir Kol.88–74 Apr 18BAS

W

vs Buyukcekmece96–87 Apr 11BAS

L

at Besiktas86–92 Apr 6BAS

W

vs Mersin SK92–87 Mar 29BAS

L

at Manisa78–92 Mar 22BAS

L

vs Turk Telekom75–85 Mar 14BAS

L

at Trabzonspor79–89 Mar 8BAS

L

vs Galatasaray72–82 Feb 15BAS

L

at Anadolu Efes81–98 Feb 8BAS

L

vs Fenerbahce55–91 Jan 31BAS

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Bahcesehir Kol.

Stats

4–1

Karsiyaka

Bahcesehir Kol. leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+4.3pp

56.9%

+4.3pp

52.6%

3-point %+3.6pp

36.8%

+3.6pp

33.2%

Free-throw %14/15 games+0.9pp

72.4%

+0.9pp

73.3%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s6.2pp apart

34.7%

6.2pp apart

28.5%

Free throws per shot14/15 games7.8pp apart

30.7%

7.8pp apart

38.5%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+2.0

32.1

+2.0

30.1

Turnovers per game0.2 fewer

12.3

0.2 fewer

12.5

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.