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Predictions graded

Real Madrid86Partizan Mozzart Bet76

Thu 8 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–944%

Points by period: Real Madrid and Partizan Mozzart Bet.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Real Madrid	27	26	18	15
Partizan Mozzart Bet	19	18	20	19

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Unbeaten Partizan visit a Real Madrid side that has lost all three EuroLeague games so far, and Madrid's first home EuroLeague night of the season carries more tension than their record suggests.

Madrid are the narrow pick over 40 minutes, around 87.6-85.0, with Partizan's 9.5-point start the stronger full-game lean. Prices are available, but none stands out at our numbers.

Context

Gabriel Deck is ruled out for Real Madrid with a left-shoulder injury, while Partizan are reported without Lamar Stevens and Derek Willis; the teams also arrive 0-3 and 3-0 in EuroLeague round four.

Deck is unavailable for Real Madrid’s first EuroLeague home game of the season. The club is still awaiting the results of his tests, so the duration of his absence remains unclear.
- Gabriel Deck is ruled out for this week.
- The injury is to his left shoulder.
- Further tests will determine the extent of the injury and his absence.
Stevens is unavailable for Partizan’s fourth-round trip to Real Madrid. His injury was sustained in the Paris game, and no return date has been stated.
- Partizan’s coach said Lamar Stevens is out of the team for the game in Madrid.
- Stevens suffered a hand and finger injury during the Paris game in late September.
Willis remains unavailable for Partizan’s visit to Real Madrid. The current update gives no return date, leaving Partizan with one fewer option for this fixture.
- Partizan’s coach said Derek Willis is out of the team for the game in Madrid.
The teams arrive with sharply different early EuroLeague records. Madrid’s three defeats all came away from home, while Partizan have won their opening three games before travelling to the Movistar Arena.
- Partizan begin the fourth round with a 3-0 EuroLeague record.
- Real Madrid have lost their opening three EuroLeague games.
- This is Real Madrid’s first EuroLeague home game of the season.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Partizan Mozzart Bet cover +9.5 (overtime included) in about 70 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · HandicaplostPartizan Mozzart Bet +9.5Estimated chance70.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Partizan Mozzart Bet cover +5.5 in the 1st half in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostPartizan Mozzart Bet +5.5Estimated chance66.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Real Madrid cover +1.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Real Madrid and 15 for Partizan Mozzart Bet, across seasons and competitions.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonReal Madrid +1.5Estimated chance62.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Partizan Mozzart Bet cover +2.5 in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostPartizan Mozzart Bet +2.5Estimated chance60.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Real Madrid win in about 58 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonReal MadridEstimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Real Madrid are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonReal MadridEstimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Partizan Mozzart Bet cover +1.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Real Madrid and 15 for Partizan Mozzart Bet, across seasons and competitions.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonPartizan Mozzart Bet +1.5Estimated chance55.2%

Points3 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Partizan Mozzart Bet score more than 81.5 points (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · Team PointslostPartizan Mozzart Bet over 81.5Estimated chance64.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Real Madrid score fewer than 46.5 points in the 1st half in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostReal Madrid under 46.5Estimated chance63.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Real Madrid score fewer than 23.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostReal Madrid under 23.5Estimated chance62.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Real Madrid score fewer than 91.5 points (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · Team PointswonReal Madrid under 91.5Estimated chance62.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Partizan Mozzart Bet score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonPartizan Mozzart Bet over 19.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Real Madrid score fewer than 22.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonReal Madrid under 22.5Estimated chance56.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Partizan Mozzart Bet score more than 20.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostPartizan Mozzart Bet over 20.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Partizan Mozzart Bet score more than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostPartizan Mozzart Bet over 20.5Estimated chance55.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Real Madrid 87.6, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85.0. Partizan Mozzart Bet score more than 41.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Real Madrid are 0-3 in EuroLeague (Sep 24-Oct 1), scoring 86.3 and allowing 91.3 points per game.
- Partizan are 3-0 in EuroLeague (Sep 25-Oct 2), scoring 90.0 and allowing 79.7 points per game.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 93-86 at home on 2025-10-15.
- Real Madrid forward Gabriel Deck is confirmed out with a left-shoulder injury (2026-10-07).
- Real Madrid average 33.9 rebounds and 12.3 turnovers; Partizan 30.4 rebounds and 12.0 turnovers (15 games each).
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostPartizan Mozzart Bet over 41.5Estimated chance55.7%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 5, 14:17

Selected line

173.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

50%

Chance of 174+ points

2 pp below break-even

Over 1.93 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 50%.

Move the line main 173.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 50%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 50%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W73–77

Partizan Mozzart Betv

Real Madrid

Feb 13, 2026·EUR

W93–86

Real Madridv

Partizan Mozzart Bet

Oct 15, 2025·EUR

W89–91

Partizanv

Real Madrid

Apr 10, 2025·EUR

W93–86

Real Madridv

Partizan

Oct 10, 2024·EUR

W76–88

Partizanv

Real Madrid

Mar 21, 2024·EUR

W91–75

Real Madridv

Partizan

Dec 21, 2023·EUR

W98–94

Real Madridv

Partizan

May 10, 2023·EUR

W78–85

Partizanv

Real Madrid

May 4, 2023·EUR

W80–82

Partizanv

Real Madrid

May 2, 2023·EUR

L80–95

Real Madridv

Partizan

Apr 27, 2023·EUR

171Avg total points

7.6Avg margin

10meetings

League table

EuroLeague · Euroleague - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Real Madrid

0–30%

Partizan Mozzart Bet

3–0100%

Recent Form

Real Madrid

4W 11L · last 15

at Obradoiro CAB114–107 OTOct 4ACB

at Hapoel Tel Aviv98–102 Oct 1EUR

at Anadolu Efes84–94 Sep 29EUR

vs Unicaja89–87 Sep 27ACB

at Dubai77–78 Sep 24EUR

vs Tenerife95–107 Jun 6ACB

at Tenerife118–83 Jun 4ACB

vs Tenerife97–98 Jun 2ACB

at Manresa87–94 May 29ACB

vs Baskonia83–88 May 27ACB

at Olympiacos85–92 May 24EUR

at Valencia105–90 May 22EUR

vs Joventut Badalona81–89 May 17ACB

at Bilbao82–88 May 14ACB

vs Breogan97–101 May 10ACB

Partizan Mozzart Bet

11W 4L · last 15

vs Mega Basket83–59 Oct 5ABA

at Bayern86–84 Oct 2EUR

at Paris92–79 Sep 29EUR

vs Olimpia Milano92–76 Sep 25EUR

vs Dubai81–83 Jun 12ABA

vs Dubai84–70 Jun 10ABA

at Dubai81–86 Jun 6ABA

at Dubai93–99 Jun 4ABA

vs FMP Beograd79–92 May 29SUP

at Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet89–78 May 21ABA

vs Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet100–94 May 18ABA

at KK Bosna87–73 May 10ABA

vs KK Bosna81–73 May 6ABA

at Sloboda Uzice63–55 May 2SUP

vs Sloboda Uzice103–77 Apr 30SUP

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Real Madrid

Stats

3–2

Partizan Mozzart Bet

Real Madrid leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+2.4pp

58.9%

+2.4pp

56.5%

3-point %+1.7pp

33.0%

+1.7pp

34.7%

Free-throw %12/14 games+1.7pp

77.6%

+1.7pp

75.9%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s13/15 games4.0pp apart

27.6%

4.0pp apart

31.6%

Free throws per shot12/14 games1.4pp apart

36.7%

1.4pp apart

35.3%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game15/12 games+3.5

33.9

+3.5

30.4

Turnovers per game0.3 fewer

12.3

0.3 fewer

12.0

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.