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Predictions graded

Maccabi Tel Aviv97Olimpia Milano79

Thu 8 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–137%

Edges0–20%

Points by period: Maccabi Tel Aviv and Olimpia Milano.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Maccabi Tel Aviv	24	27	23	23
Olimpia Milano	20	25	17	17

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Both teams arrive with EuroLeague defeats behind them — Maccabi 0-3, Milano 1-2 — and Milano have won the last four meetings, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv.

The expected score after 40 minutes is Milano 85.5, Maccabi 83.3, so Milano edging ahead after 40 minutes is the likeliest outcome. Two prices carry potential value: Milano to be ahead after 40 minutes at 2.16, and Maccabi under 43.5 first-half points at 1.88.

Context

Milano are missing Tonut and expect to leave out Akele, while Maccabi regain DiBartolomeo and wait on a match-day assessment of Theis; with an expected 40-minute score of 85.5-83.3, those changes sit close to a one-possession game.

Tonut did not travel with Milano's group for the game in Belgrade. His absence removes a guard option from Peppe Poeta's squad for this fixture.
- Stefano Tonut has a left-hand contusion.
- Milano listed Tonut as unavailable for the Maccabi game on 7 October.
Theis missed Maccabi's previous EuroLeague game with an ankle problem and has only recently returned to the group. The centre may be available against Milano, but his involvement remains uncertain until the assessment.
- Daniel Theis completed two team training sessions before the Milano game.
- Oded Kattash said Theis would be assessed on 8 October.
DiBartolomeo returns after missing Maccabi's two previous EuroLeague rounds. Kattash and Will Rayman described the captain as an important, experienced presence for the team.
- John DiBartolomeo returned to training on 7 October.
- Oded Kattash confirmed that DiBartolomeo is back with the group for Milano.
Akele is expected to be unavailable through selection rather than injury. His omission would reduce Milano's available frontcourt options against Maccabi.
- Nicola Akele was reported as the first of two Milano players set to be excluded for squad rotation.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Result after 40 minlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Olimpia Milano

2.16fair 1.83

Market 46.3% · BetBugs 54.6%

+8.3ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Olimpia Milano are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 55 of 100 games like this. Milano has been the better EuroLeague team this season and has recent success against Maccabi, but Maccabi is at home and gets some reinforcement. I expect a close, moderately high-scoring game with Milano slightly ahead.

1st Half Team PointslostUncertainty band: Lean

Maccabi Tel Aviv under 43.5

1.88fair 1.66

Market 53.2% · BetBugs 60.1%

+6.9ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Maccabi Tel Aviv score fewer than 43.5 points in the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this. Milano has been the better EuroLeague team this season and has recent success against Maccabi, but Maccabi is at home and gets some reinforcement. I expect a close, moderately high-scoring game with Milano slightly ahead.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Maccabi Tel Aviv cover +3.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 15 for Olimpia Milano, across seasons and competitions.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonMaccabi Tel Aviv +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Olimpia Milano cover +1.5 (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · HandicaplostOlimpia Milano +1.5Estimated chance59.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Olimpia Milano cover +0.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostOlimpia Milano +0.5Estimated chance57.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Olimpia Milano win in about 57 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOlimpia MilanoEstimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Olimpia Milano cover +0.5 in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostOlimpia Milano +0.5Estimated chance55.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Olimpia Milano cover +0.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 15 for Olimpia Milano, across seasons and competitions.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostOlimpia Milano +0.5Estimated chance55.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.16
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Olimpia Milano are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostOlimpia MilanoEstimated chance54.6%

Points0 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Maccabi Tel Aviv score fewer than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostMaccabi Tel Aviv under 22.5Estimated chance62.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Maccabi Tel Aviv score fewer than 43.5 points in the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostMaccabi Tel Aviv under 43.5Estimated chance60.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Maccabi Tel Aviv score fewer than 86.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · Team PointslostMaccabi Tel Aviv under 86.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. The 1st half has fewer than 86.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 86.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. The 1st quarter has fewer than 43.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointslostUnder 43.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. The game has fewer than 172.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · Total PointslostUnder 172.5Estimated chance56.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Maccabi Tel Aviv 83.3, Olimpia Milano 85.5. Maccabi Tel Aviv score fewer than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Maccabi has lost all three EuroLeague games this season, allowing 94.3 points per game (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano has allowed 87.7 points per game in EuroLeague and scored exactly 76 in both away games (Oct 2, 2026).
- Milano won both EuroLeague meetings last season, including 102-88 in Tel Aviv on Nov 26, 2025.
- Maccabi's DiBartolomeo returns and Theis may return, while Milano's Tonut is out (Oct 7, 2026).
- Maccabi shoots 61.3% on two-pointers vs Milano's 54.6% (overall, 14-15 games).
- Milano has a rebounding advantage (33.8 vs 30.25 per game).
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostMaccabi Tel Aviv under 21.5Estimated chance55.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 5, 14:17

Selected line

172.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

43%

Chance of 173+ points

9 pp below break-even

Over 1.93 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 43%.

Move the line main 172.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 43%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 57%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L96–87

Olimpia Milanov

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Mar 13, 2026·EUR

L88–102

Maccabi Tel Avivv

Olimpia Milano

Nov 26, 2025·EUR

L74–107

Maccabi Tel Avivv

Olimpia Milano

Jan 9, 2025·EUR

L98–86

Olimpia Milanov

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Nov 21, 2024·EUR

W92–86

Maccabi Tel Avivv

Olimpia Milano

Apr 11, 2024·EUR

W90–98

Olimpia Milanov

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Oct 31, 2023·EUR

W85–66

Maccabi Tel Avivv

Olimpia Milano

Mar 30, 2023·EUR

W71–77

Olimpia Milanov

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Dec 13, 2022·EUR

W75–58

Maccabi Tel Avivv

Olimpia Milano

Mar 22, 2022·EUR

L83–72

Olimpia Milanov

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Oct 12, 2021·EUR

169.1Avg total points

13.5Avg margin

10meetings

League table

EuroLeague · Euroleague - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Maccabi Tel Aviv

0–30%

Olimpia Milano

1–233%

Recent Form

Maccabi Tel Aviv

10W 5L · last 15

vs Hapoel Jerusalem88–71 Oct 4LEA

at Panathinaikos67–90 Oct 2EUR

vs Besiktas93–109 Sep 30EUR

vs Ironi Kiryat Ata109–61 Sep 27LEA

at Lyon-Villeurbanne74–84 Sep 24EUR

at Hapoel Tel Aviv83–79 Jun 23SUP

vs Hapoel Tel Aviv74–80 Jun 21SUP

at Hapoel Tel Aviv102–98 Jun 18SUP

vs Hapoel Tel Aviv96–75 Jun 16SUP

vs Hapoel Holon89–61 Jun 12SUP

at Hapoel Holon84–74 Jun 10SUP

vs Hapoel Holon107–93 Jun 8SUP

at Hapoel Beer Sheva108–83 Jun 3SUP

vs Hapoel Beer Sheva106–90 Jun 1SUP

vs Hapoel Tel Aviv97–115 May 28SUP

Olimpia Milano

10W 5L · last 15

at Verona72–75 Oct 5LEG

at Baskonia76–86 Oct 2EUR

vs Virtus Bologna87–85 Sep 29EUR

vs Trieste83–79 Sep 27LEG

at Partizan Mozzart Bet76–92 Sep 25EUR

at Venezia94–87 OTSep 20LEG

vs Virtus Bologna80–71 Sep 19LEG

at Venezia86–72 Jun 18LEG

at Venezia97–109 Jun 16LEG

vs Venezia92–79 Jun 13LEG

vs Venezia100–80 Jun 11LEG

vs Brescia91–86 Jun 5LEG

vs Brescia93–68 Jun 3LEG

at Brescia79–85 May 31LEG

at Brescia88–72 May 29LEG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Maccabi Tel Aviv

14 games

Stats

3–2

Olimpia Milano

Maccabi Tel Aviv leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+6.7pp

61.3%

+6.7pp

54.6%

3-point %+3.6pp

33.3%

+3.6pp

36.9%

Free-throw %12/14 games+6.7pp

79.3%

+6.7pp

72.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.7pp apart

30.1%

0.7pp apart

30.8%

Free throws per shot12/14 games2.6pp apart

29.7%

2.6pp apart

32.3%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game4/15 games+3.5

30.3

+3.5

33.8

Turnovers per game0.6 fewer

12.1

0.6 fewer

12.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.