EuroLeagueFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Bayern87Virtus Bologna94

Thu 8 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges2–0100%

Points by period: Bayern and Virtus Bologna.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Bayern	21	22	25	19
Virtus Bologna	35	17	23	19

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Two 1-2 EuroLeague teams meet in Munich, with Bayern expected to edge a close one 86-82 after 40 minutes and to win about six times in ten.

The worthwhile prices both sit with Virtus: 3.16 to be ahead after 40 minutes and 1.81 to score over 80.5 points. Bayern to win at 1.44 and to lead after 40 minutes at 1.52 ask for more than their chances justify.

Context

Bayern have their full 15-man group available with MarJon Beauchamp back after illness on 7 October, a real if modest boost to their perimeter depth. Kevin Kokila may return for Virtus after the hamstring injury sustained in training on 31 August, but his participation and workload remain uncertain, and Alston was absent from Virtus's latest game on 4 October without that being a confirmed absence.

Beauchamp missed Bayern’s last domestic game through illness but returned to the available group on the eve of this EuroLeague fixture. Bayern signed him as a small forward, so his return restores another perimeter option for Gavel against Virtus. His exact role in the game has not been specified.
- MarJon Beauchamp missed Bayern’s 113–60 home win over Oldenburg on 4 October because of illness.
- Anton Gavel had all 15 Bayern professionals available for the Virtus game on 7 October.
Kokila had been out since the pre-season injury and may make his first Virtus appearance against Bayern. The 204cm centre would give Alex Mumbrú another option in the frontcourt after a lengthy absence, though his participation and workload for this game remain uncertain.
- Kevin Kokila sustained a first-degree injury to his right hamstring during training on 31 August.
- Virtus initially estimated a recovery period of around four weeks.
- Kokila was reported available for the Bayern trip on 7 October after missing pre-season and the opening games.
The Olympiacos result gave Virtus their first EuroLeague win of the season after back-to-back narrow or clear defeats. Both clubs enter this fourth-round fixture at 1–2, making the game an early opportunity to move back to an even European record.
- Virtus lost 78–68 at Fenerbahce and 87–85 in Milan in their first two EuroLeague games.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96–94 in their previous EuroLeague game.
- Marcus Carr made the winning three-pointer at the buzzer against Olympiacos.
Bayern returned to domestic action 41 hours after the Partizan defeat and produced a decisive home win over Oldenburg. The result provides current form context before Virtus visit Munich, but it does not establish how Bayern will perform in this EuroLeague game.
- Bayern lost 86–84 to Partizan in EuroLeague play on 2 October.
- Bayern beat Oldenburg 113–60 at home on 4 October.
- The Oldenburg victory was Bayern’s third domestic win of the season.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Result after 40 minwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Virtus Bologna

3.16fair 2.65

Market 31.6% · BetBugs 37.7%

+6.1ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Virtus Bologna are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 38 of 100 games like this. Bayern's home court and recent head-to-head success give them a slight edge, but both teams have conceded heavily in early EuroLeague play. I expect a close game with Bayern in the mid-80s and Virtus in the low 80s.

Team PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Virtus Bologna over 80.5

1.81fair 1.66

Market 55.2% · BetBugs 60.4%

+5.2ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Virtus Bologna score more than 80.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this. Bayern's home court and recent head-to-head success give them a slight edge, but both teams have conceded heavily in early EuroLeague play. I expect a close game with Bayern in the mid-80s and Virtus in the low 80s.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Virtus Bologna cover +4.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Bayern and 15 for Virtus Bologna, across seasons and competitions.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicaplostVirtus Bologna +4.5Estimated chance68.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Bayern cover +1.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Bayern and 15 for Virtus Bologna, across seasons and competitions.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonBayern +1.5Estimated chance61.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Bayern win in about 60 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBayernEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Bayern are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostBayernEstimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Virtus Bologna cover +3.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonVirtus Bologna +3.5Estimated chance57.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Virtus Bologna cover +5.5 (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · HandicapwonVirtus Bologna +5.5Estimated chance56.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Bayern are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostBayernEstimated chance55.3%

Points4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.81
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Virtus Bologna score more than 80.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · Team PointswonVirtus Bologna over 80.5Estimated chance60.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Virtus Bologna score more than 19.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonVirtus Bologna over 19.5Estimated chance59.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. The game has more than 167.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 167.5Estimated chance55.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. Virtus Bologna score more than 40.5 points in the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonVirtus Bologna over 40.5Estimated chance55.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Bayern 86.1, Virtus Bologna 82.9. The 2nd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Bayern's three EuroLeague games this season average 82.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed, including an 84-86 home loss to Partizan on 2 October 2026.
- Virtus's three EuroLeague games average 83.0 scored and 86.3 allowed; their away EuroLeague scoring is 76.5 from a 68-point game at Fenerbahce on 25 September and an 85-point game at Milano on 29 September.
- Bayern's latest home EuroLeague game was the 84-86 loss to Partizan on 2 October, while their latest domestic home game was a 113-60 win over Oldenburg on 4 October.
- Virtus beat Olympiacos 96-94 at home on 1 October 2026 for their only EuroLeague win of the young season.
- In recent head-to-head play, Bayern won 85-80 at Virtus on 7 April 2026 and 86-70 at home against Virtus on 30 October 2025.
- Both teams are 1-2 in the EuroLeague through three games; Virtus have a -10 point differential and Bayern are -24.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 41.5Estimated chance55.1%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 5, 14:17

Selected line

167.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

56%

Chance of 168+ points

+4 pp above break-even

Over 1.93 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 56%.

Move the line main 167.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 56%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 45%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W80–85

Virtus Bolognav Bayern

Bayern

Apr 7, 2026·EUR

W86–70

Bayernv

Virtus Bologna

Oct 30, 2025·EUR

L72–82

Bayernv

Virtus Bologna

Jan 17, 2025·EUR

W84–87

Virtus Bolognav Bayern

Bayern

Oct 29, 2024·EUR

L85–83

Virtus Bolognav Bayern

Bayern

Jan 3, 2024·EUR

W90–76

Bayernv

Virtus Bologna

Nov 30, 2023·EUR

W91–84

Bayernv

Virtus Bologna

Jan 27, 2023·EUR

L66–63

Virtus Bolognav Bayern

Bayern

Oct 13, 2022·EUR

160.5Avg total points

7.5Avg margin

8meetings

League table

EuroLeague · Euroleague - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Bayern

1–233%

Virtus Bologna

1–233%

Recent Form

Bayern

10W 5L · last 15

vs Oldenburg113–60 Oct 4BBL

vs Partizan Mozzart Bet84–86 Oct 2EUR

at Fenerbahce76–100 Sep 29EUR

vs Alba Berlin95–61 Sep 26BBL

at Hapoel Tel Aviv86–84 Sep 24EUR

vs Bamberg108–72 Sep 20BBL

vs Alba Berlin81–84 Jun 21BBL

at Alba Berlin61–71 Jun 19BBL

at Alba Berlin91–83 Jun 17BBL

vs Alba Berlin79–86 Jun 14BBL

vs Alba Berlin102–94 Jun 12BBL

at Bonn77–57 Jun 4BBL

vs Bonn91–69 Jun 1BBL

vs Bonn83–78 May 30BBL

at Trier99–62 May 23BBL

Virtus Bologna

7W 8L · last 15

vs Maxima Roma98–89 Oct 4LEG

vs Olympiacos96–94 Oct 1EUR

at Olimpia Milano85–87 Sep 29EUR

at Varese90–69 Sep 27LEG

at Fenerbahce68–78 Sep 25EUR

at Olimpia Milano71–80 Sep 19LEG

at Venezia83–90 Jun 6LEG

at Venezia85–89 Jun 4LEG

vs Venezia98–79 Jun 1LEG

vs Venezia83–91 May 30LEG

vs Trento106–95 May 26LEG

at Trento90–81 May 24LEG

at Trento85–102 May 22LEG

vs Trento84–87 May 19LEG

vs Trento102–71 May 17LEG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Bayern

Stats

3–2

Virtus Bologna

Bayern leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+2.4pp

59.1%

+2.4pp

56.7%

3-point %+2.4pp

35.6%

+2.4pp

33.2%

Free-throw %14/14 games+0.7pp

76.3%

+0.7pp

77.0%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.0pp apart

33.2%

2.0pp apart

31.2%

Free throws per shot14/14 games6.1pp apart

30.6%

6.1pp apart

36.7%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+0.4

34.3

+0.4

33.9

Turnovers per game0.5 fewer

12.8

0.5 fewer

12.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.