Manresa101Ulm89

Wed 7 Oct 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: Manresa and Ulm.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Manresa	31	31	20	19
Ulm	24	21	24	20

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Manresa are 0-3 and hunting a first win; Ulm arrive 1-0 in Group D after a 98-84 EuroCup opener.

A 90.0-85.7 expected score after 40 minutes puts Manresa ahead in about 61 of 100 games like this, and Manresa are the likelier winner. Over 41.5 combined points in the third quarter at 1.79 is the one price with an edge; Manresa to score under 89.5 at 1.7 does not.

Context

Both teams last played on 3 October, about four days before tip-off, and Manresa have two regulars from their latest game still unresolved for this one; there is no prior meeting between the clubs to draw on.

Benítez has missed Manresa's last two official games following the chest injury. His readiness for Ulm remains unresolved, which may leave Manresa without a point guard from its usual group.
- Hugo Benítez suffered chest trauma in the 26 September game at Bilbao and underwent a small procedure for a pneumothorax.
- He was absent when Manresa lost 101-95 to Río Breogán on 3 October.
Oriola did not play in Manresa's most recent official match. The leg problem had not been described as a muscle or vascular injury, but his readiness for Ulm remains unresolved and may reduce Manresa's frontcourt options.
- Oriola missed the 3 October game against Río Breogán.
- Diego Ocampo said on 26 September that a blow to Oriola's leg had caused a large hematoma.
This is Manresa's first EuroCup home game of the campaign after an 0-1 start in the competition. The Ulm fixture gives Diego Ocampo's side an immediate chance to respond in Group D.
- Manresa lost 93-78 at PAOK Thessaloniki in their EuroCup opener on 30 September.
- They lost 101-95 at home to Río Breogán on 3 October.
- Manresa had not won any of their first three official games.
Ulm begin the Manresa game at 1-0 in Group D, while this is their second European fixture of the season. The result provides the immediate competition context for their trip to Manresa.
- Ulm beat Balkan Botevgrad 98-84 in their EuroCup opener.
- Ulm led 31-17 after the first quarter and kept Balkan from bringing the game close.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

3rd Quarter Total PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 41.5

1.79fair 1.65

Market 55.9% · BetBugs 60.6%

+4.7ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 90.0, Ulm 85.7. The 3rd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this. Manresa play fast, have been leaking points badly this season and score heavily at home, while Ulm have been a lower-scoring, slower team whose road output has swung between 72 and 93 this season. A home side with the better recent scoring base edges it, with both teams in the mid-to-high 80s.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 90.0, Ulm 85.7. Manresa cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 68 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Manresa and 15 for Ulm, across seasons and competitions.
- Manresa have conceded 100.3 points per game over their three 2026-27 games (107 at Bilbao 26 Sep, 93 at PAOK 30 Sep in the EuroCup, 101 vs Breogan 3 Oct).
- Manresa averaged 92.7 points in their seven home ACB games in 2025-26 (94 vs Real Madrid, 101 vs Zaragoza, 104 vs Valencia, 94 vs Burgos, 87 vs Joventut, 83 vs Baskonia, 86 vs Murcia).
- Ulm have scored 83.2 points per game across five 2026-27 games in the BBL and EuroCup, but only 72 at Syntainics MBC on 3 Oct and 67 at home to Wurzburg on 27 Sep.
- Ulm beat Balkan Botevgrad 98-84 in their EuroCup opener on 30 Sep, leading 31-17 after the first quarter.
- Manresa's 15-game shooting sample shows 30.8% from three (139/451) and 73.2% from the free-throw line (284/388); Ulm's is 30.7% from three (124/404) and 72.6% from the line (193/266).
- There is no prior meeting between the clubs on record, so the head-to-head gives no signal.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostManresa +2.5Estimated chance68.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 90.0, Ulm 85.7. Manresa win in about 63 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Manresa have conceded 100.3 points per game over their three 2026-27 games (107 at Bilbao 26 Sep, 93 at PAOK 30 Sep in the EuroCup, 101 vs Breogan 3 Oct).
- Manresa averaged 92.7 points in their seven home ACB games in 2025-26 (94 vs Real Madrid, 101 vs Zaragoza, 104 vs Valencia, 94 vs Burgos, 87 vs Joventut, 83 vs Baskonia, 86 vs Murcia).
- Ulm have scored 83.2 points per game across five 2026-27 games in the BBL and EuroCup, but only 72 at Syntainics MBC on 3 Oct and 67 at home to Wurzburg on 27 Sep.
- Ulm beat Balkan Botevgrad 98-84 in their EuroCup opener on 30 Sep, leading 31-17 after the first quarter.
- Manresa's 15-game shooting sample shows 30.8% from three (139/451) and 73.2% from the free-throw line (284/388); Ulm's is 30.7% from three (124/404) and 72.6% from the line (193/266).
- There is no prior meeting between the clubs on record, so the head-to-head gives no signal.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonManresaEstimated chance63.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 90.0, Ulm 85.7. Manresa are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa have conceded 100.3 points per game over their three 2026-27 games (107 at Bilbao 26 Sep, 93 at PAOK 30 Sep in the EuroCup, 101 vs Breogan 3 Oct).
- Manresa averaged 92.7 points in their seven home ACB games in 2025-26 (94 vs Real Madrid, 101 vs Zaragoza, 104 vs Valencia, 94 vs Burgos, 87 vs Joventut, 83 vs Baskonia, 86 vs Murcia).
- Ulm have scored 83.2 points per game across five 2026-27 games in the BBL and EuroCup, but only 72 at Syntainics MBC on 3 Oct and 67 at home to Wurzburg on 27 Sep.
- Ulm beat Balkan Botevgrad 98-84 in their EuroCup opener on 30 Sep, leading 31-17 after the first quarter.
- Manresa's 15-game shooting sample shows 30.8% from three (139/451) and 73.2% from the free-throw line (284/388); Ulm's is 30.7% from three (124/404) and 72.6% from the line (193/266).
- There is no prior meeting between the clubs on record, so the head-to-head gives no signal.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonManresaEstimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 90.0, Ulm 85.7. Manresa cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Manresa and 15 for Ulm, across seasons and competitions.
- Manresa have conceded 100.3 points per game over their three 2026-27 games (107 at Bilbao 26 Sep, 93 at PAOK 30 Sep in the EuroCup, 101 vs Breogan 3 Oct).
- Manresa averaged 92.7 points in their seven home ACB games in 2025-26 (94 vs Real Madrid, 101 vs Zaragoza, 104 vs Valencia, 94 vs Burgos, 87 vs Joventut, 83 vs Baskonia, 86 vs Murcia).
- Ulm have scored 83.2 points per game across five 2026-27 games in the BBL and EuroCup, but only 72 at Syntainics MBC on 3 Oct and 67 at home to Wurzburg on 27 Sep.
- Ulm beat Balkan Botevgrad 98-84 in their EuroCup opener on 30 Sep, leading 31-17 after the first quarter.
- Manresa's 15-game shooting sample shows 30.8% from three (139/451) and 73.2% from the free-throw line (284/388); Ulm's is 30.7% from three (124/404) and 72.6% from the line (193/266).
- There is no prior meeting between the clubs on record, so the head-to-head gives no signal.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonManresa +0.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 90.0, Ulm 85.7. Manresa are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa have conceded 100.3 points per game over their three 2026-27 games (107 at Bilbao 26 Sep, 93 at PAOK 30 Sep in the EuroCup, 101 vs Breogan 3 Oct).
- Manresa averaged 92.7 points in their seven home ACB games in 2025-26 (94 vs Real Madrid, 101 vs Zaragoza, 104 vs Valencia, 94 vs Burgos, 87 vs Joventut, 83 vs Baskonia, 86 vs Murcia).
- Ulm have scored 83.2 points per game across five 2026-27 games in the BBL and EuroCup, but only 72 at Syntainics MBC on 3 Oct and 67 at home to Wurzburg on 27 Sep.
- Ulm beat Balkan Botevgrad 98-84 in their EuroCup opener on 30 Sep, leading 31-17 after the first quarter.
- Manresa's 15-game shooting sample shows 30.8% from three (139/451) and 73.2% from the free-throw line (284/388); Ulm's is 30.7% from three (124/404) and 72.6% from the line (193/266).
- There is no prior meeting between the clubs on record, so the head-to-head gives no signal.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonManresaEstimated chance57.7%

Points3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.79
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 90.0, Ulm 85.7. The 3rd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa have conceded 100.3 points per game over their three 2026-27 games (107 at Bilbao 26 Sep, 93 at PAOK 30 Sep in the EuroCup, 101 vs Breogan 3 Oct).
- Manresa averaged 92.7 points in their seven home ACB games in 2025-26 (94 vs Real Madrid, 101 vs Zaragoza, 104 vs Valencia, 94 vs Burgos, 87 vs Joventut, 83 vs Baskonia, 86 vs Murcia).
- Ulm have scored 83.2 points per game across five 2026-27 games in the BBL and EuroCup, but only 72 at Syntainics MBC on 3 Oct and 67 at home to Wurzburg on 27 Sep.
- Ulm beat Balkan Botevgrad 98-84 in their EuroCup opener on 30 Sep, leading 31-17 after the first quarter.
- Manresa's 15-game shooting sample shows 30.8% from three (139/451) and 73.2% from the free-throw line (284/388); Ulm's is 30.7% from three (124/404) and 72.6% from the line (193/266).
- There is no prior meeting between the clubs on record, so the head-to-head gives no signal.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 41.5Estimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 90.0, Ulm 85.7. Ulm score fewer than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa have conceded 100.3 points per game over their three 2026-27 games (107 at Bilbao 26 Sep, 93 at PAOK 30 Sep in the EuroCup, 101 vs Breogan 3 Oct).
- Manresa averaged 92.7 points in their seven home ACB games in 2025-26 (94 vs Real Madrid, 101 vs Zaragoza, 104 vs Valencia, 94 vs Burgos, 87 vs Joventut, 83 vs Baskonia, 86 vs Murcia).
- Ulm have scored 83.2 points per game across five 2026-27 games in the BBL and EuroCup, but only 72 at Syntainics MBC on 3 Oct and 67 at home to Wurzburg on 27 Sep.
- Ulm beat Balkan Botevgrad 98-84 in their EuroCup opener on 30 Sep, leading 31-17 after the first quarter.
- Manresa's 15-game shooting sample shows 30.8% from three (139/451) and 73.2% from the free-throw line (284/388); Ulm's is 30.7% from three (124/404) and 72.6% from the line (193/266).
- There is no prior meeting between the clubs on record, so the head-to-head gives no signal.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonUlm under 22.5Estimated chance58.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 90.0, Ulm 85.7. Ulm score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa have conceded 100.3 points per game over their three 2026-27 games (107 at Bilbao 26 Sep, 93 at PAOK 30 Sep in the EuroCup, 101 vs Breogan 3 Oct).
- Manresa averaged 92.7 points in their seven home ACB games in 2025-26 (94 vs Real Madrid, 101 vs Zaragoza, 104 vs Valencia, 94 vs Burgos, 87 vs Joventut, 83 vs Baskonia, 86 vs Murcia).
- Ulm have scored 83.2 points per game across five 2026-27 games in the BBL and EuroCup, but only 72 at Syntainics MBC on 3 Oct and 67 at home to Wurzburg on 27 Sep.
- Ulm beat Balkan Botevgrad 98-84 in their EuroCup opener on 30 Sep, leading 31-17 after the first quarter.
- Manresa's 15-game shooting sample shows 30.8% from three (139/451) and 73.2% from the free-throw line (284/388); Ulm's is 30.7% from three (124/404) and 72.6% from the line (193/266).
- There is no prior meeting between the clubs on record, so the head-to-head gives no signal.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonUlm over 20.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 90.0, Ulm 85.7. The 1st half has fewer than 89.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa have conceded 100.3 points per game over their three 2026-27 games (107 at Bilbao 26 Sep, 93 at PAOK 30 Sep in the EuroCup, 101 vs Breogan 3 Oct).
- Manresa averaged 92.7 points in their seven home ACB games in 2025-26 (94 vs Real Madrid, 101 vs Zaragoza, 104 vs Valencia, 94 vs Burgos, 87 vs Joventut, 83 vs Baskonia, 86 vs Murcia).
- Ulm have scored 83.2 points per game across five 2026-27 games in the BBL and EuroCup, but only 72 at Syntainics MBC on 3 Oct and 67 at home to Wurzburg on 27 Sep.
- Ulm beat Balkan Botevgrad 98-84 in their EuroCup opener on 30 Sep, leading 31-17 after the first quarter.
- Manresa's 15-game shooting sample shows 30.8% from three (139/451) and 73.2% from the free-throw line (284/388); Ulm's is 30.7% from three (124/404) and 72.6% from the line (193/266).
- There is no prior meeting between the clubs on record, so the head-to-head gives no signal.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 89.5Estimated chance55.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Manresa 90.0, Ulm 85.7. Manresa score more than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Manresa have conceded 100.3 points per game over their three 2026-27 games (107 at Bilbao 26 Sep, 93 at PAOK 30 Sep in the EuroCup, 101 vs Breogan 3 Oct).
- Manresa averaged 92.7 points in their seven home ACB games in 2025-26 (94 vs Real Madrid, 101 vs Zaragoza, 104 vs Valencia, 94 vs Burgos, 87 vs Joventut, 83 vs Baskonia, 86 vs Murcia).
- Ulm have scored 83.2 points per game across five 2026-27 games in the BBL and EuroCup, but only 72 at Syntainics MBC on 3 Oct and 67 at home to Wurzburg on 27 Sep.
- Ulm beat Balkan Botevgrad 98-84 in their EuroCup opener on 30 Sep, leading 31-17 after the first quarter.
- Manresa's 15-game shooting sample shows 30.8% from three (139/451) and 73.2% from the free-throw line (284/388); Ulm's is 30.7% from three (124/404) and 72.6% from the line (193/266).
- There is no prior meeting between the clubs on record, so the head-to-head gives no signal.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostManresa over 21.5Estimated chance55.4%