EuroCupFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Aris93San Pablo Burgos80

Wed 7 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–1047%

Edges1–150%

Points by period: Aris and San Pablo Burgos.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Aris	28	25	16	24
San Pablo Burgos	14	16	25	25

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Two 1-0 EuroCup Group A sides meet with Aris at home in Greece, and the 40-minute forecast is 87-82 to Aris, who win about 65 of 100 including overtime.

Burgos's scoring form and Aris's quiet 68-point league loss on 3 October keep the margin uncertain. At 1.84, Burgos +8.5 carries value; over 39.5 points in the third quarter at 1.85 does too. Aris's win at 1.19 does not.

Context

Both teams come in on 4.1 and 3.3 days of rest after opening EuroCup wins, so freshness is not a deciding condition. Aris expect to be without Stefan Jovic, and Burgos expect to be without Retin Obasohan and Vlatko Cancar, with official confirmation pending. No previous meeting between the clubs is on record.

The Serbian guard arrived behind schedule after illness disrupted his pre-season. Spanoulis said he was not ready for the Burgos game, which may leave Aris with one fewer experienced backcourt option. Official confirmation is pending.
- Vassilis Spanoulis said on 6 October that Stefan Jovic was not ready.
- Jovic missed most of pre-season after a summer bout of shingles.
Obasohan was still named unavailable in Burgos's match preview after an earlier recovery period. His absence may leave the visitors with one fewer guard option against Aris. Official confirmation is pending.
- Burgos listed Retin Obasohan among the players unavailable for the 7 October game.
- Obasohan was continuing recovery from an earlier injury in late August.
Cancar's September knee injury required surgical treatment and an open-ended recovery timeline. Burgos still listed the forward as unavailable for this trip, which may leave the side with one fewer wing option. Official confirmation is pending.
- Burgos listed Vlatko Cancar as unavailable for the 7 October EuroCup game.
- Cancar suffered a medial meniscus tear in his left knee during September training.
Aris's opening win featured 19 points, eight rebounds and two assists from E. J. Liddell, while Jeremiah Robinson-Earl added 13 points, 12 rebounds and three assists. Both clubs therefore enter their second group game from a winning European start, providing immediate competition context without deciding this matchup.
- Aris won 87-74 away at Le Mans in their EuroCup opener.
- Burgos opened their EuroCup campaign with a win over Cedevita Olimpija.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

3rd Quarter Total PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 39.5

1.85fair 1.60

Market 54.1% · BetBugs 62.4%

+8.3ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. The 3rd quarter has more than 39.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. Aris's EuroCup opener showed better defense and a working offense, and home court in Greece should help; Burgos's overall scoring is high but was lower in its EuroCup game. I expect a moderately high-scoring game with Aris slightly ahead.

HandicaplostUncertainty band: Lean

San Pablo Burgos +8.5

1.84fair 1.66

Market 54.3% · BetBugs 60.4%

+6.1ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. San Pablo Burgos cover +8.5 (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this. Aris's EuroCup opener showed better defense and a working offense, and home court in Greece should help; Burgos's overall scoring is high but was lower in its EuroCup game. I expect a moderately high-scoring game with Aris slightly ahead.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. Aris cover +5.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 82 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Aris and 15 for San Pablo Burgos, across seasons and competitions.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostAris +5.5Estimated chance81.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. Aris cover +2.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 71 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Aris and 15 for San Pablo Burgos, across seasons and competitions.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonAris +2.5Estimated chance71.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. Aris win in about 65 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArisEstimated chance65.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. Aris are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonArisEstimated chance63.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.84
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. San Pablo Burgos cover +8.5 (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · HandicaplostSan Pablo Burgos +8.5Estimated chance60.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. Aris are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonArisEstimated chance59.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. San Pablo Burgos cover +2.5 in the 1st quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostSan Pablo Burgos +2.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. San Pablo Burgos cover +4.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostSan Pablo Burgos +4.5Estimated chance57.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. Aris are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonArisEstimated chance55.8%

Points4 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. San Pablo Burgos score more than 18.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonSan Pablo Burgos over 18.5Estimated chance64.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. San Pablo Burgos score more than 78.5 points (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · Team PointswonSan Pablo Burgos over 78.5Estimated chance64.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. The 3rd quarter has more than 39.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 39.5Estimated chance62.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. San Pablo Burgos score more than 19.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostSan Pablo Burgos over 19.5Estimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. San Pablo Burgos score more than 39.5 points in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostSan Pablo Burgos over 39.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. The game has more than 166.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 166.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. San Pablo Burgos score more than 19.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostSan Pablo Burgos over 19.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. Aris score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostAris over 20.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. Aris score fewer than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostAris under 22.5Estimated chance56.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Aris 87.0, San Pablo Burgos 82.0. The 2nd quarter has more than 41.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Aris beat Le Mans 87-74 away in the EuroCup on 29 Sep 2026; Burgos beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home on 30 Sep 2026.
- Aris's current-season scoring leaders are Jeremiah Robinson (19.0 ppg) and E.J. Liddell (16.5 ppg) over 2 games; Burgos's are D. Steward (19.0) and C. Audige (14.0) over 3 games.
- Over 14 tracked games, Aris has shot 51.2% on two-pointers and 35.5% on three-pointers; over 15 tracked games, Burgos has shot 54.8% on two-pointers and 34.2% on three-pointers.
- In the sample, Aris's five home games averaged 85.4 points scored and 71.0 allowed; Burgos's seven away games averaged 91.7 scored and 91.1 allowed, though Burgos's figures come mostly from the higher-scoring ACB.
- Rest: Aris has 4.1 days since its 3 Oct 2026 game; Burgos has 3.3 days since its 4 Oct 2026 game. Both are 1-0 in EuroCup Group A.
- No h2h meetings are on record, so the head-to-head signal is absent.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 41.5Estimated chance55.1%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 6, 19:40

Selected line

166.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

58%

Chance of 167+ points

+3 pp above break-even

Over 1.84 needs 54% to break even. BetBugs sees 58%.

Move the line main 166.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 58%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 42%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

League table

EuroCup · Eurocup - Regular Season · Group A

#TeamW–LWin %

Aris

1–0100%

San Pablo Burgos

1–0100%

Recent Form

Aris

8W 7L · last 15

at AS Karditsas68–74 Oct 3BAS

at Le Mans87–74 Sep 29EUR

at AEK Athens99–102 May 25BAS

vs AEK Athens90–81 May 17BAS

at AEK Athens81–87 May 14BAS

vs Panionios75–65 Apr 25BAS

at Peristeri75–78 Apr 22BAS

at Olympiacos81–92 Apr 19BAS

at PAOK77–88 Apr 15BAS

vs AEK Athens82–78 Apr 4BAS

at Kolossos Rhodes96–92 Mar 28BAS

vs AS Karditsas78–55 Mar 21BAS

vs Maroussi102–76 Mar 7BAS

at Maroussi80–87 Feb 17GRE

at Mykonos83–74 Feb 14BAS

San Pablo Burgos

8W 7L · last 15

at Forca Lleida94–81 Oct 4ACB

vs Cedevita Olimpija85–81 Sep 30EUR

vs Baskonia97–98 Sep 27ACB

vs Granada110–105 May 29ACB

at Joventut Badalona79–86 May 24ACB

at MoraBanc Andorra85–83 May 17ACB

vs Unicaja97–90 May 14ACB

at Barcelona76–91 May 9ACB

vs Forca Lleida99–91 May 2ACB

at Manresa101–94 Apr 26ACB

vs Breogan94–99 Apr 19ACB

vs Real Madrid78–94 Apr 12ACB

at Gran Canaria109–95 Apr 4ACB

vs Valencia74–79 Mar 29ACB

at Basket Zaragoza98–108 Mar 21ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Aris

14 games

Stats

3–2

San Pablo Burgos

Aris leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+3.6pp

51.2%

+3.6pp

54.8%

3-point %+1.3pp

35.5%

+1.3pp

34.2%

Free-throw %14/14 games+0.5pp

73.1%

+0.5pp

72.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s6.5pp apart

35.6%

6.5pp apart

29.1%

Free throws per shot14/14 games6.4pp apart

35.6%

6.4pp apart

29.2%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+1.1

34.4

+1.1

33.3

Turnovers per game0.5 fewer

13.8

0.5 fewer

13.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.