French CupFinished

Predictions graded

Poitiers80Orleans70

Tue 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–128%

Points by period: Poitiers and Orleans.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Poitiers	27	15	23	15
Orleans	19	19	16	16

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Two Elite 2 clubs meet in the second round of the French Cup, three days after league games.

Orleans are the slightly stronger side: the expected score puts them about 85-82 ahead after 40 minutes, and they win with overtime included in roughly 57 of 100 such games. Poitiers' rebounding edge and a 92-90 home win in April are the counterweight. Every forecast is low confidence, so no quoted price stands out and the evidence is too thin to back one.

Context

Rest is level: both clubs last played on 3 October, three days before this tie. The freshest league evidence is two Pro B games each this season, in which Poitiers have conceded 95.5 points a game and Orleans 81.0. No availability or injury information is established, and the aggregate shooting and rebounding figures cover 14 games in mixed competitions and seasons.

The cup meeting comes three days after Poitiers let a late lead slip in their latest Elite 2 game. It is the freshest competitive form reference for the home side before a different knockout matchup against Orléans.
- Poitiers led Blois 71-69 after the third quarter.
- Blois won the final quarter 36-21 to take a 105-92 victory.
The victory followed Orléans' overtime loss in their league opener against Champagne Basket. A balanced home win gives the visitors a positive current form reference before their trip to Poitiers.
- Orléans beat Rouen 91-74 on 3 October.
- Orléans led for the entire game.
- Eight Orléans players recorded a performance index of at least 10.
Jeanne brings a direct connection to the home club into this cup tie. That familiarity is useful fixture context, but it does not alter the competition format or confirm a matchday role.
- Poitiers identified Jonathan Jeanne as a player from its recent history who now plays for Orléans.
- Poitiers listed the Orléans cup game among its two upcoming home fixtures.
Poitiers retain continuity at head coach, but the supporting staff and player group changed during the summer. That limits how much of last season's team context carries into this cup meeting.
- Andy Thornton-Jones remains Poitiers head coach for the 2026-27 Elite 2 season.
- Poitiers added Vincent Pinho as first assistant.
- The club entered the season with a heavily renewed group.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. Orleans cover +2.5 (overtime included) in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · HandicaplostOrleans +2.5Estimated chance62.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. Orleans cover +1.5 in the 1st half in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostOrleans +1.5Estimated chance61.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. Orleans win in about 57 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOrleansEstimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. Orleans cover +0.5 in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostOrleans +0.5Estimated chance55.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. Orleans are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostOrleansEstimated chance54.9%

Points1 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. Orleans score more than 80.5 points (overtime included) in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · Team PointslostOrleans over 80.5Estimated chance66.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. Orleans score more than 19.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostOrleans over 19.5Estimated chance63.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. Orleans score more than 19.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostOrleans over 19.5Estimated chance62.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. Orleans score more than 40.5 points in the 1st half in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostOrleans over 40.5Estimated chance60.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. The game has more than 163.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · Total PointslostOver 163.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. The 1st half has more than 81.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostOver 81.5Estimated chance57.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. The 2nd quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 40.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Poitiers 82.3, Orleans 84.6. The 1st quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Poitiers have allowed 95.5 points per game in two Pro B games this season (Sept 25 and Oct 3, 2026).
- Orleans have allowed 81.0 points per game in their two Pro B games this season, including a 91-74 win over Rouen on Oct 3, 2026.
- Across 14 tracked games (mixed competitions and seasons), Poitiers average 38.6 rebounds per game versus Orleans' 33.4.
- Orleans shoot 54.2% on two-pointers and 73.4% on free throws over 14 tracked games, compared to Poitiers' 50.8% and 70.7%.
- The most recent head-to-head was Poitiers 92-90 Orleans on Apr 7, 2026, but Orleans won the prior meeting 85-80 on Oct 28, 2025.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonOver 40.5Estimated chance56.8%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 5, 18:40

Selected line

163.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

60%

Chance of 164+ points

+4 pp above break-even

Over 1.79 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 60%.

Move the line main 163.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 60%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 40%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W92–90

Poitiersv

Orleans

Apr 7, 2026·PRO

L85–80

Orleansv

Poitiers

Oct 28, 2025·PRO

W79–71

Poitiersv

Orleans

Apr 8, 2025·PRO

L86–72

Orleansv

Poitiers

Dec 27, 2024·PRO

L89–85

Orleansv

Poitiers

Feb 3, 2024·PRO

W91–83

Poitiersv

Orleans

Nov 24, 2023·PRO

L79–83

Poitiersv

Orleans

May 12, 2019·PRO

L111–85

Orleansv

Poitiers

Dec 18, 2018·PRO

L87–71

Orleansv

Poitiers

Apr 17, 2018·PRO

L74–80

Poitiersv

Orleans

Jan 12, 2018·PRO

167.3Avg total points

9.3Avg margin

10meetings

Recent Form

Poitiers

8W 7L · last 15

at Ada Blois92–105 Oct 3PRO

vs Evreux80–86 Sep 25PRO

at Bordeaux80–79 Sep 15FRE

at Pau-Orthez73–86 Jun 18PRO

vs Pau-Orthez72–81 Jun 15PRO

at Pau-Orthez106–82 Jun 12PRO

vs Nantes85–75 Jun 9PRO

at Nantes88–79 OTJun 6PRO

vs Nantes80–83 OTJun 3PRO

vs Saint Quentin76–73 May 31PRO

at Saint Quentin81–84 May 27PRO

vs Saint Quentin100–96 OTMay 24PRO

vs Hyeres-Toulon81–75 May 15PRO

at Aix Maurienne81–79 May 8PRO

vs Pau-Orthez90–97 Apr 30PRO

Orleans

10W 5L · last 15

vs Rouen91–74 Oct 3PRO

vs Chalons-Reims84–88 OTSep 26PRO

at Loon Plage94–77 Sep 15FRE

vs Pau-Orthez85–90 Jun 6PRO

at Pau-Orthez72–90 Jun 3PRO

at Vichy79–73 May 27PRO

vs Vichy71–56 May 24PRO

at ASA81–80 OTMay 15PRO

vs Rouen72–84 May 9PRO

vs St. Chamond96–88 OTMay 5PRO

at Chalons-Reims77–67 Apr 30PRO

vs Challans85–80 Apr 26PRO

at La Rochelle77–84 Apr 21PRO

vs Hyeres-Toulon100–90 Apr 17PRO

at Ada Blois86–54 Apr 11PRO

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Poitiers

14 games

Stats

3–2

Orleans

14 games

Poitiers leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+3.4pp

50.8%

+3.4pp

54.2%

3-point %+2.5pp

32.1%

+2.5pp

29.6%

Free-throw %+2.7pp

70.7%

+2.7pp

73.4%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s3.2pp apart

34.0%

3.2pp apart

30.8%

Free throws per shot1.0pp apart

35.5%

1.0pp apart

36.5%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+5.2

38.6

+5.2

33.4

Turnovers per game0.5 fewer

14.6

0.5 fewer

15.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.