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Predictions graded

Verona75Olimpia Milano72

Mon 5 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions2–1115%

Points by period: Verona and Olimpia Milano.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Verona	21	23	14	17
Olimpia Milano	21	17	15	19

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Verona's second Lega A game of the season comes against a Milano side playing Monday night three days after a EuroLeague trip, and the forecast puts Milano about 11 points clear.

Milano are the likely winners, but every lean here is LOW confidence, so no price is worth backing; the two team totals with prices, Verona over 80.5 at 1.67 and Milano under 89.5 at 1.71, are both left alone.

Context

Milano arrive three days after a EuroLeague road game, and Verona's Izaiah Brockington was listed unavailable with a left-calf injury on 1 October with no later update. Both are real conditions for this fixture, but neither is established as decisive.

The two meetings date from the 2022-23 Lega A season, so they set the historical tone of this fixture rather than describing the current teams. Milano won by 22 points and by 24, and Verona were not close in either. With only two meetings on record, this is background rather than a forecast.
- 16 April 2023: Olimpia Milano won 83-61 at Verona in Lega A (2022-23 season).
- 30 October 2022: Olimpia Milano won 78-54 at home to Verona in Lega A (2022-23 season).
- Two completed meetings on record across seasons, per the head-to-head scope.
A single game of figures shows who took the shots in the opener rather than a settled hierarchy. Seven Verona players scored eight points or more in that same game, so the load spread through the rotation. It is the only Verona player data available this season, a starting point rather than a form line.
- 27 September 2026: Verona lost 93-101 at Tortona in Lega A, their only 2026-27 game with player figures.
- In that game: Tobey Mike 19 points in 29 minutes, Massinburg C.J. 17 in 32 minutes, F. Zampini 15 in 36 minutes.
- Seven Verona players scored eight or more points; the team's player data covers one game this season.
A player missing from a game is an observation, not a confirmed absence, so this is rotation uncertainty rather than a known shortage. Five Milano players have appeared in all six games this season, led by Wright Moses at 15.5 points in 25.3 minutes. If Guduric and the others return, Milano's rotation deepens; whether they do is not established.
- 2 October 2026: Guduric Marko did not appear in Milano's game; he had played four games this season at 12.5 points in 25.2 minutes, most recently on 29 September 2026.
- Tonut Stefano, Diop Ousmane, Flaccadori Diego and Akele Nicola last appeared on 27 September 2026.
- Milano's player data covers six games this season; five players have appeared in all six.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Olimpia Milano win in about 81 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOlimpia MilanoEstimated chance80.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Olimpia Milano are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 79 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostOlimpia MilanoEstimated chance79.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Olimpia Milano are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostOlimpia MilanoEstimated chance71.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Olimpia Milano are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostOlimpia MilanoEstimated chance65.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Olimpia Milano are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostOlimpia MilanoEstimated chance61.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Olimpia Milano are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonOlimpia MilanoEstimated chance60.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Olimpia Milano cover -8.5 (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · HandicaplostOlimpia Milano -8.5Estimated chance58.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Olimpia Milano cover -4.5 in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostOlimpia Milano -4.5Estimated chance56.6%

Points1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Verona score fewer than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostVerona under 20.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. The 1st quarter has fewer than 43.5 points in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonUnder 43.5Estimated chance56.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Verona score fewer than 40.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostVerona under 40.5Estimated chance56.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Olimpia Milano score more than 44.5 points in the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostOlimpia Milano over 44.5Estimated chance55.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Verona 79.2, Olimpia Milano 90.2. Verona score fewer than 20.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Verona's only 2026-27 Lega A game was a 93-101 loss at Tortona on 27 September 2026, with 101 points allowed being the most in their last 15 games.
- Olimpia Milano played at Baskonia in EuroLeague on 2 October 2026, a 76-87 loss, three days before this Lega A game.
- Milano's 27 September 2026 Lega A home win over Trieste was 83-79, and they have allowed 79 or fewer in three of their last four domestic games.
- Across the last 15 games for each team, Milano shot 55.0% on two-pointers (330/600) while Verona shot 49.2% (252/512).
- In the latest head-to-head meetings, Milano won 83-61 at Verona on 16 April 2023 and 78-54 at home on 30 October 2022.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostVerona under 20.5Estimated chance55.1%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 3, 21:53

Selected line

170.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

49%

Chance of 171+ points

6 pp below break-even

Over 1.83 needs 55% to break even. BetBugs sees 49%.

Move the line main 170.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L61–83

Veronav

Olimpia Milano

Apr 16, 2023·LEG

L78–54

Olimpia Milanov Verona

Verona

Oct 30, 2022·LEG

138Avg total points

23Avg margin

2meetings

League table

Lega Basket Serie A · Lega A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Verona

0–10%

Olimpia Milano

1–0100%

Recent Form

Verona

12W 3L · last 15

at Tortona93–101 Sep 27LEG

at Rimini83–75 Jun 14SER

at Rimini70–82 Jun 12SER

vs Rimini84–76 Jun 9SER

vs Rimini84–74 Jun 7SER

vs Fortitudo Bologna86–73 May 25SER

at Fortitudo Bologna75–74 OTMay 22SER

at Fortitudo Bologna60–59 May 20SER

at Brindisi77–69 May 14SER

at Brindisi70–77 May 12SER

vs Brindisi86–71 May 9SER

vs Brindisi80–78 May 7SER

vs Urania Milano95–74 Apr 26SER

at Roseto84–69 Apr 19SER

vs Mestre87–68 Apr 12SER

Olimpia Milano

11W 4L · last 15

at Baskonia76–87 Oct 2EUR

vs Virtus Bologna87–85 Sep 29EUR

vs Trieste83–79 Sep 27LEG

at Partizan Mozzart Bet76–92 Sep 25EUR

at Venezia94–87 OTSep 20LEG

vs Virtus Bologna80–71 Sep 19LEG

at Venezia86–72 Jun 18LEG

at Venezia97–109 Jun 16LEG

vs Venezia92–79 Jun 13LEG

vs Venezia100–80 Jun 11LEG

vs Brescia91–86 Jun 5LEG

vs Brescia93–68 Jun 3LEG

at Brescia79–85 May 31LEG

at Brescia88–72 May 29LEG

at Reggiana84–72 May 21LEG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Verona

Stats

3–2

Olimpia Milano

Verona leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+5.8pp

49.2%

+5.8pp

55.0%

3-point %+0.5pp

37.7%

+0.5pp

37.2%

Free-throw %15/14 games+5.8pp

67.9%

+5.8pp

73.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s10.4pp apart

42.3%

10.4pp apart

31.9%

Free throws per shot15/14 games1.3pp apart

30.1%

1.3pp apart

31.4%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+0.6

35.1

+0.6

34.5

Turnovers per game2.0 fewer

10.1

2.0 fewer

12.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.