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Predictions graded

Trieste82Venezia87

Sun 4 Oct 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges2–0100%

Points by period: Trieste and Venezia.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Trieste	15	27	20	20
Venezia	21	18	20	28

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Venezia arrive with four games behind them and wins in the last four meetings between the clubs; Trieste have played once, a 79-83 loss in Milan.

Venezia are the likelier winner, with the 40-minute reading at 86-80. Venezia giving 2.5 points at 1.88 is the stronger of the two prices that hold up; Trieste under 83.5 points at 1.73 is the other. Trieste over 83.5 at 1.71 is one to leave.

Context

Trieste have had 7.1 days since their last game against Venezia's 4.9, and the current-season records are uneven — one game for Trieste, four for Venezia, one of them an overtime loss. No availability issue is established for either side, so nothing here reshapes the game sharply.

Venezia won the most recent meeting 84-78 in Trieste on 22 March 2026, a six-point road win, and the three meetings before that also went their way. That run sits behind their favouritism for a game played in Trieste again. It is a record of past results rather than a guarantee, and the 2022-23 meeting in Venice went Trieste's way.
- Trieste 78-84 Venezia, Lega A, 22 Mar 2026, played in Trieste — the most recent listed meeting.
- Venezia 102-66 Trieste, Lega A, 18 Oct 2025 — the meeting before that.
Venezia scored 104 points in their most recent outing, a 32-point home win over Frankfurt in the Eurocup on 29 September 2026. It came in a different competition from this league game, so the margin does not carry straight across. It does show a side scoring freely while Trieste have played only once this season.
- Venezia 104-72 Frankfurt, Eurocup, 29 Sep 2026, at home — the most recent result among the 15 completed Venezia games listed.
Trieste's current-season evidence is one game, a four-point road loss to Olimpia Milano on 27 September 2026. Venezia have played four times in the same period. The read on Trieste therefore leans more on last season's results than on anything from this one, which is part of why their home form is hard to pin down.
- Trieste 79-83 Olimpia Milano, Lega A, 27 Sep 2026, away — Trieste's only 2026-27 result among the 15 games listed.
Venezia lost 87-94 to Olimpia Milano in the Super Cup on 20 September 2026 after an extra period, the only overtime game among their four outings this season. It shows a margin in their games can run past 40 minutes. One such game in four is a small base for any pattern.
- Venezia 87-94 Olimpia Milano, Lega A - Super Cup, 20 Sep 2026, at home, overtime.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

HandicapwonUncertainty band: Lean

Venezia -2.5

1.88fair 1.58

Market 53.2% · BetBugs 63.2%

+10.0ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Venezia cover -2.5 (overtime included) in about 63 of 100 games like this. Venezia have the better current form and recent head-to-head record, so I expect them to score in the mid-80s. Trieste should improve at home from their opening road loss but still land around 80, with Venezia's scoring depth outweighing Trieste's rest edge.

Team PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Trieste under 83.5

1.73fair 1.64

Market 57.8% · BetBugs 60.8%

+3.0ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Trieste score fewer than 83.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this. Venezia have the better current form and recent head-to-head record, so I expect them to score in the mid-80s. Trieste should improve at home from their opening road loss but still land around 80, with Venezia's scoring depth outweighing Trieste's rest edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Venezia win in about 69 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVeneziaEstimated chance68.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Venezia are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonVeneziaEstimated chance66.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Venezia cover -2.5 (overtime included) in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · HandicapwonVenezia -2.5Estimated chance63.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Venezia are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostVeneziaEstimated chance61.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Venezia cover -0.5 in the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostVenezia -0.5Estimated chance61.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Venezia are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostVeneziaEstimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Venezia are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonVeneziaEstimated chance55.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Venezia cover -0.5 in the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonVenezia -0.5Estimated chance55.4%

Points6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Trieste score fewer than 42.5 points in the 1st half in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonTrieste under 42.5Estimated chance63.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Trieste score fewer than 21.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonTrieste under 21.5Estimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Trieste score fewer than 83.5 points (overtime included) in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · Team PointswonTrieste under 83.5Estimated chance60.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. The 1st half has fewer than 85.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonUnder 85.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Venezia score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostVenezia over 20.5Estimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. The game has fewer than 169.5 points (overtime included) in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · Total PointswonUnder 169.5Estimated chance55.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Trieste 80.2, Venezia 86.3. Venezia score more than 85.5 points (overtime included) in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Venezia's four 2026-27 games produced 104, 85, 87 and 98 points, including a 104-72 Eurocup win over Frankfurt on 29 Sep 2026.
- Trieste's only 2026-27 game was a 79-83 Lega A loss at Olimpia Milano on 27 Sep 2026.
- In the latest head-to-head, Venezia won 84-78 at Trieste on 22 Mar 2026, and Venezia have won the last five listed meetings.
- Across the 15 recent results listed, Trieste averaged 82.4 points scored and 86.1 allowed; Venezia averaged 86.3 scored and 87.1 allowed.
- Venezia beat Cantu 85-73 at home in Lega A on 26 Sep 2026, their only other current Lega A game.
- Trieste enter with 7.1 days rest since their last game, Venezia with 4.9 days.
BetBugs · Team PointswonVenezia over 85.5Estimated chance55.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 3, 15:58

Selected line

169.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

45%

Chance of 170+ points

8 pp below break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 45%.

Move the line main 169.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 45%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 55%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L78–84

Triestev

Venezia

Mar 22, 2026·LEG

L102–66

Veneziav

Trieste

Oct 18, 2025·LEG

L103–71

Veneziav

Trieste

Apr 13, 2025·LEG

L70–76

Triestev

Venezia

Dec 29, 2024·LEG

W72–81

Veneziav

Trieste

Jan 22, 2023·LEG

L78–95

Triestev

Venezia

Oct 15, 2022·LEG

L65–78

Triestev

Venezia

Mar 6, 2022·LEG

L84–77

Veneziav

Trieste

Nov 21, 2021·LEG

L69–87

Triestev

Venezia

Mar 21, 2021·LEG

L81–66

Veneziav

Trieste

Dec 23, 2020·LEG

158.3Avg total points

15.9Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Lega Basket Serie A · Lega A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Trieste

0–10%

Venezia

1–0100%

Recent Form

Trieste

5W 10L · last 15

at Olimpia Milano79–83 Sep 27LEG

at Brescia75–90 May 25LEG

vs Brescia83–77 May 23LEG

vs Brescia80–84 May 21LEG

at Brescia82–90 May 18LEG

at Brescia92–90 May 16LEG

vs Cremona89–94 May 10LEG

at Olimpia Milano78–86 May 3LEG

at Virtus Bologna81–95 Apr 26LEG

vs Brescia82–86 Apr 19LEG

at Udine89–70 Apr 12LEG

vs Varese90–89 Apr 4LEG

at Cantu76–97 Mar 29LEG

vs Venezia78–84 Mar 22LEG

vs Tenerife82–76 Mar 17CL

Venezia

8W 7L · last 15

vs Frankfurt104–72 Sep 29EUR

vs Cantu85–73 Sep 26LEG

vs Olimpia Milano87–94 OTSep 20LEG

at Tortona98–90 Sep 19LEG

vs Olimpia Milano72–86 Jun 18LEG

vs Olimpia Milano109–97 Jun 16LEG

at Olimpia Milano79–92 Jun 13LEG

at Olimpia Milano80–100 Jun 11LEG

vs Virtus Bologna90–83 Jun 6LEG

vs Virtus Bologna89–85 Jun 4LEG

at Virtus Bologna79–98 Jun 1LEG

at Virtus Bologna91–83 May 30LEG

vs Tortona89–83 May 26LEG

at Tortona71–89 May 24LEG

at Tortona71–82 May 22LEG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Trieste

Stats

2–3

Venezia

Venezia leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %15/14 games+5.4pp

56.8%

+5.4pp

51.4%

3-point %15/14 games+3.1pp

33.2%

+3.1pp

36.3%

Free-throw %15/14 games+2.1pp

79.6%

+2.1pp

77.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s15/14 games4.6pp apart

35.1%

4.6pp apart

30.5%

Free throws per shot15/14 games3.6pp apart

29.0%

3.6pp apart

32.6%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game15/14 games+0.9

30.5

+0.9

31.4

Turnovers per game1.7 fewer

12.1

1.7 fewer

10.4

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.