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Predictions graded

SCM Timisoara72CSM Targu Mures78

Sun 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Points by period: SCM Timisoara and CSM Targu Mures.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
SCM Timisoara	21	20	14	17
CSM Targu Mures	17	11	31	19

Quick Take

Pre-match view

CSM Târgu Mureș carry the better recent scoring into Timișoara: 96.9 points a game across their last 15 completed games, against 84.7 for the hosts.

A 40-minute outlook puts it near 86-89 Târgu Mureș, who are ahead after 40 minutes in about 58 of 100 such games and win about 60 of 100 with overtime included. Timișoara have won three of the last four home meetings, so it stays close. No price stands out at our numbers.

Context

Both teams last played on 30 September 2026 in the Romanian Cup, so rest is even at just under four days. Târgu Mureș' 15-game scoring and shooting form and a projected 86-89 margin are the main sporting conditions; no availability, venue or travel factor is established.

Târgu Mureș won the two most recent league meetings between the clubs, by six at Timișoara on 8 October 2025 and by two in overtime at home on 23 January 2026. Three of the last four meetings cleared 183 points, while the fourth was a 93-69 Timișoara win in the Romanian Cup on 27 September 2025. The series points to a tight, fast game rather than a blowout.
- 23 Jan 2026: CSM Targu Mures beat SCM Timisoara 115-113 after overtime at home in Divizia A.
SCM Timișoara's same 15-game span reads 33.7% from three (121 of 359) and 70.1% from the line (202 of 288), so the outside gap is modest and the free-throw gap is the larger separator. If this game turns on a handful of points, Târgu Mureș' line accuracy is the steadier of the two advantages.
- 29 Mar to 30 Sep 2026: CSM Targu Mures shot 38.0% from three-point range (168 of 442) over 15 completed games.
- Same 15-game span: 81.5% from the free-throw line (251 of 308).
Four days separated the two Romanian Cup games, and the 23-point scoring swing against an unchanged opponent underlines how wide Timișoara's game-to-game range has been this season. Their 15-game figures of 84.7 points scored and 77.4 conceded sit between those two results, which is the fairer guide to what they bring here.
- 30 Sep 2026: SCM Timisoara won 88-74 away at Petrolul Ploiesti in the Romanian Cup.
- 26 Sep 2026: SCM Timisoara lost 65-72 at home to Petrolul Ploiesti in the Romanian Cup.
He has come off the bench in both games, giving Târgu Mureș a second scoring source behind starters M. Carcoana (14.5 points) and D. Ejah (17.5) on the same two-game record. Two games is a thin base for a scoring rate, and these figures say nothing about who is available for this fixture.
- 2026 Romanian Cup, two games with player records: Martinic Goran averaged 20.0 points and 18.6 minutes per game, with both appearances off the bench.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. CSM Targu Mures cover +3.5 (overtime included) in about 69 of 100 games like this.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · HandicapwonCSM Targu Mures +3.5Estimated chance68.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. CSM Targu Mures cover +2.5 in the 1st half in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostCSM Targu Mures +2.5Estimated chance67.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. CSM Targu Mures cover +1.5 in the 1st quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostCSM Targu Mures +1.5Estimated chance62.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. CSM Targu Mures win in about 60 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSM Targu MuresEstimated chance60.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. CSM Targu Mures are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonCSM Targu MuresEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. CSM Targu Mures are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostCSM Targu MuresEstimated chance55.5%

Points3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. SCM Timisoara score fewer than 90.5 points (overtime included) in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · Team PointswonSCM Timisoara under 90.5Estimated chance64.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. CSM Targu Mures score more than 42.5 points in the 1st half in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostCSM Targu Mures over 42.5Estimated chance62.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. CSM Targu Mures score more than 86.5 points (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · Team PointslostCSM Targu Mures over 86.5Estimated chance62.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. SCM Timisoara score fewer than 44.5 points in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonSCM Timisoara under 44.5Estimated chance58.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. SCM Timisoara score fewer than 22.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonSCM Timisoara under 22.5Estimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: SCM Timisoara 86.0, CSM Targu Mures 89.3. CSM Targu Mures score more than 21.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- CSM Targu Mures averaged 96.9 points across their last 15 completed games (29 Mar 2026 to 30 Sep 2026), including 109 and 93 in this season's Romanian Cup wins over Municipal Galati.
- SCM Timisoara averaged 84.7 points and conceded 77.4 across their last 15 games, but scored only 65 in a home Romanian Cup loss to Petrolul on 26 Sep 2026 and 88 in the away return on 30 Sep 2026.
- Over 15 tracked games each, Targu Mures shoot 38.0% from three and 81.5% from the line, against Timisoara's 33.7% and 70.1%.
- Targu Mures turn the ball over only 9.9 times per game over 15 games, versus 12.8 for Timisoara, and rebound essentially level (34.1 vs 34.3).
- The last four head-to-head meetings (23 Sep 2025 to 23 Jan 2026) produced 176 points or more in every game, with Targu Mures winning the two most recent league meetings by 6 and by 2 in overtime.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostCSM Targu Mures over 21.5Estimated chance56.4%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 3, 15:58

Selected line

176.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

49%

Chance of 177+ points

8 pp below break-even

Over 1.76 needs 57% to break even. BetBugs sees 49%.

Move the line main 176.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 49%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 51%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L115–113

CSM Targu Muresv

SCM Timisoara

Jan 23, 2026·DIVOT

L89–95

SCM Timisoarav

CSM Targu Mures

Oct 8, 2025·DIV

W93–69

SCM Timisoarav

CSM Targu Mures

Sep 27, 2025·ROM

L106–77

CSM Targu Muresv

SCM Timisoara

Sep 23, 2025·ROM

W84–93

CSM Targu Muresv

SCM Timisoara

May 28, 2025·DIV

W89–76

SCM Timisoarav

CSM Targu Mures

May 25, 2025·DIV

W92–83

SCM Timisoarav

CSM Targu Mures

Mar 8, 2025·DIV

L81–77

CSM Targu Muresv

SCM Timisoara

Nov 4, 2024·DIV

W112–72

BC Timisoarav

BC Mures Targu

Feb 2, 2018·DIV

L81–75

BC Mures Targuv

BC Timisoara

Nov 10, 2017·DIV

177.2Avg total points

14.2Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Liga Națională · Divizia A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

SCM Timisoara

0–0—

CSM Targu Mures

0–0—

Recent Form

SCM Timisoara

9W 6L · last 15

at Petrolul Ploiesti88–74 Sep 30ROM

vs Petrolul Ploiesti65–72 Sep 26ROM

vs Valcea90–94 May 27DIV

at Valcea85–92 May 23DIV

vs Valcea90–84 May 20DIV

at BC Steaua Bucuresti90–48 May 15DIV

vs BC Steaua Bucuresti85–72 May 11DIV

at Municipal Galati85–67 May 2DIV

at Municipal Galati82–88 Apr 30DIV

vs Municipal Galati73–72 Apr 26DIV

vs Municipal Galati83–65 Apr 24DIV

at Rapid Bucuresti89–93 Apr 18DIV

vs Arges Pitesti89–87 Apr 15DIV

at Corona Brasov88–98 Apr 7DIV

vs Voluntari89–55 Apr 2DIV

CSM Targu Mures

10W 5L · last 15

vs Municipal Galati109–83 Sep 30ROM

at Municipal Galati93–73 Sep 26ROM

at Corona Brasov96–81 May 23DIV

vs Corona Brasov118–78 May 21DIV

at CSM Targu Jiu98–95 May 16DIV

vs CSM Targu Jiu108–87 May 12DIV

vs CSM Targu Jiu92–91 May 10DIV

at Petrolul Ploiesti79–89 Apr 30DIV

vs Petrolul Ploiesti74–91 Apr 26DIV

vs Petrolul Ploiesti89–91 Apr 24DIV

at Arges Pitesti98–95 OTApr 18DIV

at Voluntari90–94 Apr 16DIV

vs Corona Brasov123–118 OTApr 14DIV

vs Valcea102–84 Apr 2DIV

at CSM Oradea85–93 Mar 29DIV

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

SCM Timisoara

Stats

2–3

CSM Targu Mures

CSM Targu Mures leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+1.8pp

59.4%

+1.8pp

57.6%

3-point %+4.3pp

33.7%

+4.3pp

38.0%

Free-throw %+11.4pp

70.1%

+11.4pp

81.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s6.1pp apart

28.6%

6.1pp apart

34.7%

Free throws per shot0.8pp apart

30.2%

0.8pp apart

29.4%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+0.2

34.3

+0.2

34.1

Turnovers per game2.9 fewer

12.8

2.9 fewer

9.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.