Lega Basket Serie AFinished

Predictions graded

Scafati77Varese85

Sun 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–665%

Points by period: Scafati and Varese.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Scafati	17	21	24	15
Varese	24	16	30	15

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Both teams are 0-1 in Lega A and hunting a first win: Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine, Varese 69-90 at home to Virtus Bologna.

The projection favours Varese, 87.2-81.8 after 40 minutes, and has them winning about two games in three. No price stands out at our numbers — with one league game each this season, there is too little evidence to back one.

Context

The live factor is the 1 October preview listing two Varese players unavailable; both clubs come off opening defeats and the brief establishes no other current condition that changes the matchup.

Varese won the last meeting between the clubs 95-82, and it is the freshest direct evidence available. It is more than a season old, and both sides have since lost their 2026-27 openers, so it is background rather than a guide to this fixture.
- 30 March 2025, Lega A: Varese 95, Scafati 82 — a 13-point home win in the most recent meeting on record between the two clubs.
Scafati's three-point rate is the standout number in their record, but 14 of the 15 games came in the second division, so it has not been tested by Lega A defences. The step up in class is the open question, not the percentage itself.
- 15 games with complete statistics between 31 January 2026 and 27 September 2026, 14 of them in Serie A2 and one in Lega A.
- Three-point shooting 171 of 432 (39.6%); two-point shooting 260 of 519 (50.1%); free throws 219 of 321 (68.2%).
- 34.2 rebounds and 11.0 turnovers per game across the same 15 games.
This is the only player-level record of Scafati this season, and it shows three scorers in double figures rather than one dominant option. One game is a snapshot, so it says little about how the minutes will be shared in this fixture.
- 27 September 2026, Lega A: Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine in their only game this season with player statistics.
- G. Nevels 12 points in 32 minutes, C. Offurum 12 in 30, Z. Onyema 11 in 25, Lever 8 in 23 off the bench.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese cover +1.5 (overtime included) in about 69 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · HandicapwonVarese +1.5Estimated chance68.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese win in about 67 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVareseEstimated chance66.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonVareseEstimated chance64.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese cover +0.5 in the 1st half in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonVarese +0.5Estimated chance64.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonVareseEstimated chance60.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese cover +0.5 in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonVarese +0.5Estimated chance59.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostVareseEstimated chance56.5%

Points5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese score more than 81.5 points (overtime included) in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · Team PointswonVarese over 81.5Estimated chance72.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese score more than 40.5 points in the 1st half in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostVarese over 40.5Estimated chance67.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonVarese over 19.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. The game has more than 164.5 points (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · Total PointslostOver 164.5Estimated chance62.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. The 3rd quarter has more than 39.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 39.5Estimated chance62.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese score more than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostVarese over 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. The 2nd quarter has more than 40.5 points in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointslostOver 40.5Estimated chance60.6%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Varese score more than 20.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonVarese over 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. The 1st half has more than 82.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostOver 82.5Estimated chance58.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Scafati 81.8, Varese 87.2. Scafati score more than 19.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Scafati lost 87-63 at Udine on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season, scoring 20 points below their 2025-26 Serie A2 average.
- Varese lost 90-69 at home to Virtus Bologna on 2026-09-27 in their only Lega A game this season.
- In 14 Lega A games last season, Varese averaged 85.6 points scored and 89.5 allowed, with a total average of 175.1.
- Scafati's last 15 games (mostly Serie A2, one Lega A) averaged 83.7 points scored and 77.7 allowed.
- The last six head-to-head meetings (2022-2025) averaged 184.2 total points, with Varese scoring 93.3 and Scafati 90.8.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonScafati over 19.5Estimated chance56.4%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 3, 21:19

Selected line

164.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

62%

Chance of 165+ points

+9 pp above break-even

Over 1.88 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 62%.

Move the line main 164.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 62%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 38%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L95–82

Varesev

Scafati

Mar 30, 2025·LEG

W94–85

Scafativ

Varese

Nov 16, 2024·LEG

W102–90

Scafativ

Varese

Apr 14, 2024·LEG

L94–93

Varesev

Scafati

Nov 19, 2023·LEG

L95–81

Varesev

Scafati

Apr 30, 2023·LEG

L93–101

Scafativ

Varese

Nov 6, 2022·LEG

184.2Avg total points

9.5Avg margin

6meetings

League table

Lega Basket Serie A · Lega A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Scafati

0–10%

Varese

0–10%

Recent Form

Scafati

12W 3L · last 15

at Udine63–87 Sep 27LEG

at Rimini80–76 Apr 26SER

vs Avellino Basket93–71 Apr 19SER

at Cento88–83 Apr 12SER

vs Brindisi85–77 Apr 8SER

at Sebastiani Rieti81–76 Apr 4SER

vs Forli96–72 Mar 29SER

at Basket Torino82–74 Mar 25SER

vs Cividale90–80 Mar 22SER

at Pistoia97–82 Mar 8SER

at Verona61–76 Feb 22SER

vs Pesaro84–79 Feb 15SER

at JuVi Cremona79–76 Feb 11SER

vs Roseto97–75 Feb 7SER

at Mestre80–81 Jan 31SER

Varese

7W 8L · last 15

vs Virtus Bologna69–90 Sep 27LEG

at Virtus Bologna85–104 May 10LEG

vs Cremona84–75 Apr 26LEG

at Cantu96–100 Apr 19LEG

vs Sassari91–90 Apr 12LEG

at Trieste89–90 Apr 4LEG

vs Tortona97–87 Mar 28LEG

at Basket Napoli75–104 Mar 22LEG

vs Treviso91–86 Mar 15LEG

at Udine92–81 Mar 8LEG

vs Brescia98–96 Feb 14LEG

at Trento78–84 Feb 8LEG

vs Reggiana61–76 Feb 1LEG

at Olimpia Milano84–74 Jan 26LEG

vs Venezia94–106 Jan 18LEG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Scafati

Stats

3–2

Varese

14 games

Scafati leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+8.1pp

50.1%

+8.1pp

58.2%

3-point %+6.6pp

39.6%

+6.6pp

33.0%

Free-throw %+6.6pp

68.2%

+6.6pp

74.8%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s3.0pp apart

41.0%

3.0pp apart

38.0%

Free throws per shot5.7pp apart

33.8%

5.7pp apart

28.1%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+6.2

34.2

+6.2

28.0

Turnovers per game1.9 fewer

11.0

1.9 fewer

12.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.