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Predictions graded

Obradoiro CAB107Real Madrid114

Regulation 99-99Sun 4 Oct 2026, 10:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Points by period: Obradoiro CAB and Real Madrid.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT
Obradoiro CAB	22	21	26	30	8
Real Madrid	22	32	21	24	15

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Obradoiro host Real Madrid one round into the ACB season, both 1-0, with the projected 40-minute score 81.8-91.2 in Madrid's favour.

Real Madrid are the likelier winner — ahead at 40 minutes in about 75 of 100 such games, winning about 77 of 100 including overtime — though three EuroLeague defeats in a week give Obradoiro a chance. No price is worth backing: over 177.5 combined points at 1.91 and Real Madrid over 93.5 team points at 1.85 ask for more than the evidence gives.

Context

Both teams are 1-0 in ACB, but Real Madrid have lost three EuroLeague games in a week and had 2.8 days since their last completed game against Obradoiro's 7.7, while Obradoiro's scoring totals come mostly from the second division.

Real Madrid have won all ten meetings in this record, and only two were decided by fewer than seven points. The 2022-05-08 game is the exception: an 89-88 finish at Obradoiro, one basket either way. Obradoiro's five home meetings in that stretch averaged 76.8 points against Real Madrid's 86.2. A one-sided series can still produce a close home night.
- Real Madrid won 89-88 at Obradoiro CAB in ACB on 2022-05-08, the narrowest margin of the ten most recent meetings in this record.
Real Madrid's most recent completed game was a 98-102 EuroLeague defeat at Hapoel Tel Aviv on 2026-10-01, their third loss in seven days. They also went down 77-78 at Dubai on 2026-09-24 and 84-94 at Anadolu Efes on 2026-09-29. That run is the counterweight to Real Madrid's status as clear favourites, though EuroLeague and ACB form do not transfer directly.
- Real Madrid lost 98-102 at Hapoel Tel Aviv in the EuroLeague on 2026-10-01, their third defeat in seven days.
- Real Madrid lost 77-78 at Dubai on 2026-09-24 and 84-94 at Anadolu Efes on 2026-09-29 in the EuroLeague.
The 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26 is Obradoiro's only ACB game in this record; they spent 2025-26 in Primera FEB. Their 14 completed games in that division averaged 92.7 points each, against second-division opposition. It gives the home side a winning start, but one top-flight game is a thin base for judging the step up.
- Obradoiro CAB won 90-85 at MoraBanc Andorra in ACB on 2026-09-26, their only ACB game this season.
- Their 2025-26 Primera FEB record covers 14 completed games averaging 92.7 points.
Sarr Olivier played in two of Real Madrid's four games with player details this season, last on 2026-09-27, and was not listed on 2026-10-01. Missing from a game is an observation, not a confirmed absence for this fixture. Real Madrid's minutes this season run through Maledon Theo (23.1 a game over four games) and Tavares Edy (22.6 over four).
- Sarr Olivier has two appearances in Real Madrid's four games with player details this season, last playing on 2026-09-27.
- The latest game with player details is 2026-10-01, and Sarr Olivier does not appear in it.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. Real Madrid win in about 77 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonReal MadridEstimated chance77.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. Real Madrid are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 75 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostReal MadridEstimated chance75.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. Real Madrid are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 69 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonReal MadridEstimated chance68.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. Real Madrid are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonReal MadridEstimated chance63.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. Real Madrid are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostReal MadridEstimated chance59.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. Real Madrid are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultlostReal MadridEstimated chance58.2%

Points3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 45.5 points in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 45.5Estimated chance64.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. Obradoiro CAB score fewer than 84.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · Team PointslostObradoiro CAB under 84.5Estimated chance59.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. The game has fewer than 177.5 points (overtime included) in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · Total PointslostUnder 177.5Estimated chance59.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. Obradoiro CAB score fewer than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostObradoiro CAB under 21.5Estimated chance58.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. Real Madrid score fewer than 23.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonReal Madrid under 23.5Estimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. Real Madrid score fewer than 93.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · Team PointslostReal Madrid under 93.5Estimated chance56.7%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. Real Madrid score more than 22.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonReal Madrid over 22.5Estimated chance55.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Obradoiro CAB 81.8, Real Madrid 91.2. The 2nd quarter has more than 42.5 points in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Obradoiro scored 90 points in their only ACB game this season, a 90-85 win at MoraBanc Andorra on 2026-09-26.
- Real Madrid scored 89 points in their only ACB game this season, an 89-87 home win over Unicaja on 2026-09-27.
- Real Madrid has lost three EuroLeague games from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01, allowing 94, 102, and 78 points.
- In five home games against Real Madrid from 2018 to 2023, Obradoiro averaged 76.8 points while Real Madrid averaged 86.2.
- Obradoiro's 2025-26 Primera FEB games (14 games) averaged 92.7 points per game, but against second-division competition.
- Rest: Obradoiro has 7.7 days since last game; Real Madrid has 2.8 days.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 42.5Estimated chance55.2%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 3, 21:19

Selected line

177.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

41%

Chance of 178+ points

11 pp below break-even

Over 1.91 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 41%.

Move the line main 177.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 41%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 59%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L79–69

Real Madridv

Obradoiro CAB

Apr 28, 2024·ACB

L74–85

Obradoiro CABv

Real Madrid

Dec 16, 2023·ACB

L78–84

Obradoiro CABv

Real Madrid

Mar 5, 2023·ACB

L93–79

Real Madridv

Obradoiro CAB

Oct 2, 2022·ACB

L88–89

Obradoiro CABv

Real Madrid

May 8, 2022·ACB

L78–68

Real Madridv

Obradoiro CAB

Sep 26, 2021·ACB

L71–87

Obradoiro CABv

Real Madrid

Mar 23, 2021·ACB

L84–77

Real Madridv

Obradoiro CAB

Oct 20, 2020·ACB

L94–70

Real Madridv

Obradoiro CAB

Apr 14, 2019·ACB

L73–86

Obradoiro CABv

Real Madrid

Oct 21, 2018·ACB

160.6Avg total points

11.2Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Liga ACB · ACB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Obradoiro CAB

1–0100%

Real Madrid

1–0100%

Recent Form

Obradoiro CAB

14W 1L · last 15

at MoraBanc Andorra90–85 Sep 26ACB

vs Gipuzkoa85–68 May 8PRI

at Estela95–65 May 2PRI

vs Estudiantes89–79 Apr 26PRI

at Tizona Burgos96–99 OTApr 21PRI

vs Ourense94–57 Apr 17PRI

at Leyma Coruna92–84 Apr 11PRI

vs Palencia81–53 Apr 5PRI

at Fibwi Palma87–63 Mar 29PRI

vs Palmer Basket89–80 Mar 21PRI

at Alicante103–80 Mar 15PRI

vs Cartagena101–49 Mar 10PRI

at Fuenlabrada97–77 Mar 7PRI

at Melilla92–70 Feb 15PRI

vs Hestia Menorca100–86 OTFeb 10PRI

Real Madrid

4W 11L · last 15

at Hapoel Tel Aviv98–102 Oct 1EUR

at Anadolu Efes84–94 Sep 29EUR

vs Unicaja89–87 Sep 27ACB

at Dubai77–78 Sep 24EUR

vs Tenerife95–107 Jun 6ACB

at Tenerife118–83 Jun 4ACB

vs Tenerife97–98 Jun 2ACB

at Manresa87–94 May 29ACB

vs Baskonia83–88 May 27ACB

at Olympiacos85–92 May 24EUR

at Valencia105–90 May 22EUR

vs Joventut Badalona81–89 May 17ACB

at Bilbao82–88 May 14ACB

vs Breogan97–101 May 10ACB

at Hapoel Tel Aviv87–81 May 7EUR

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Obradoiro CAB

13 games

Stats

4–1

Real Madrid

Obradoiro CAB leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+0.1pp

59.4%

+0.1pp

59.3%

3-point %+5.9pp

38.5%

+5.9pp

32.6%

Free-throw %13/11 games+5.4pp

73.1%

+5.4pp

78.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s13/12 games7.2pp apart

34.1%

7.2pp apart

26.9%

Free throws per shot13/11 games2.2pp apart

35.8%

2.2pp apart

33.6%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+0.6

34.2

+0.6

33.6

Turnovers per game11.3 fewer

1.0

11.3 fewer

12.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.