LNB ÉliteFinished

Predictions graded

Le Mans101Paris103

Sun 4 Oct 2026, 16:50 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Points by period: Le Mans and Paris.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Le Mans	21	20	33	27
Paris	17	29	25	32

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Le Mans and Paris both opened LNB Élite with a win, and Le Mans hold the edge in a game the forecast sees as tight: ahead after 40 minutes in about 56 of 100, winning in about 58.

Paris shoot better inside and rebound more; Le Mans turn it over less. Every lean is low-confidence and no listed price stands out — Le Mans under 85.5 team points at 1.82 is not worth taking.

Context

Two 1-0 league records carry only one game each this season, there is no meeting in either side's last 15 games, and no research on availability was supplied. The forecast margin of about 2.5 points and Paris' EuroLeague schedule on Oct 1 are the main sporting factors.

Those 103 points came with an extra period included, so the 40-minute total was lower. It is their only LNB game this season and it shows they can put up a big number on the road. Paris on Oct 4 are a different test, and one game is a thin base.
- Le Mans won 103-97 in overtime away to Gravelines-Dunkerque in LNB Élite on Sep 26, 2026.
- The LNB season 2026-2027 record for Le Mans contains that single game; the 15-game run spans Mar 14 to Sep 29, 2026.
That 74 points is tied for their second-lowest total in the 15 listed games, behind only the 55 they scored against Nanterre on May 27. It is one game, and the league opener three days earlier went the other way, so it settles little about their form. It does show the lower end of their scoring range.
- Le Mans lost 74-87 at home to Aris in the Eurocup on Sep 29, 2026.
- In Le Mans' 15-game record (Mar 14–Sep 29, 2026), 74 points is tied for their second-lowest total; the lowest is 55 against Nanterre on May 27, 2026.
That win came a little under three days before this league game, and it is Paris' strongest recent result. It also means they walk into Le Mans on a short turnaround after a top-level European night, which is a real cost in a domestic fixture. One game does not set their LNB level.
- Paris beat Zalgiris Kaunas 82-78 at home in the EuroLeague on Oct 1, 2026.
- It is the newest of the 15 Paris results in this record, which runs from Jun 2 to Oct 1, 2026.
That record covers only two games this season, so both averages rest on a tiny base. Stewart has started both and taken the largest share of the scoring at 26.5 minutes a game. Grasshoff has produced 16.5 points a game off the bench in 24.1 minutes.
- C. Stewart: 23.0 points and 26.5 minutes per game, starting both of Le Mans' two games with player records this season (latest: Sep 29, 2026).
- B. Grasshoff: 16.5 points and 24.1 minutes per game off the bench over the same two games.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Le Mans 88.5, Paris 86.0. Le Mans cover +2.5 (overtime included) in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Le Mans has averaged 90.1 points and allowed 86.2 across its last 12 LNB games (Mar 14–Sep 26, including a 103-97 overtime win at Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sep 26).
- Paris has averaged 90.5 points and allowed 88.4 across its last 10 LNB games (Jun 2–Sep 27, including a 78-73 win at Nancy on Sep 27).
- In 15-game overall samples, Paris shoots 55.7% on two-pointers and 75.5% on free throws, while Le Mans shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 37.4% on three-pointers.
- Paris grabs 36.2 rebounds per game to Le Mans's 32.3, but commits 15.5 turnovers per game to Le Mans's 12.7 (15-game samples).
- Le Mans last played Sep 29 (4.9 days of rest); Paris last played Oct 1 in the EuroLeague (2.9 days of rest).
- Paris's Tarpey Terry played Sep 29 but was missing from the latest Oct 1 box score; no confirmed availability news was provided.
BetBugs · HandicapwonLe Mans +2.5Estimated chance63.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Le Mans 88.5, Paris 86.0. Le Mans cover +1.5 in the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Le Mans has averaged 90.1 points and allowed 86.2 across its last 12 LNB games (Mar 14–Sep 26, including a 103-97 overtime win at Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sep 26).
- Paris has averaged 90.5 points and allowed 88.4 across its last 10 LNB games (Jun 2–Sep 27, including a 78-73 win at Nancy on Sep 27).
- In 15-game overall samples, Paris shoots 55.7% on two-pointers and 75.5% on free throws, while Le Mans shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 37.4% on three-pointers.
- Paris grabs 36.2 rebounds per game to Le Mans's 32.3, but commits 15.5 turnovers per game to Le Mans's 12.7 (15-game samples).
- Le Mans last played Sep 29 (4.9 days of rest); Paris last played Oct 1 in the EuroLeague (2.9 days of rest).
- Paris's Tarpey Terry played Sep 29 but was missing from the latest Oct 1 box score; no confirmed availability news was provided.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicaplostLe Mans +1.5Estimated chance61.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Le Mans 88.5, Paris 86.0. Le Mans win in about 58 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Le Mans has averaged 90.1 points and allowed 86.2 across its last 12 LNB games (Mar 14–Sep 26, including a 103-97 overtime win at Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sep 26).
- Paris has averaged 90.5 points and allowed 88.4 across its last 10 LNB games (Jun 2–Sep 27, including a 78-73 win at Nancy on Sep 27).
- In 15-game overall samples, Paris shoots 55.7% on two-pointers and 75.5% on free throws, while Le Mans shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 37.4% on three-pointers.
- Paris grabs 36.2 rebounds per game to Le Mans's 32.3, but commits 15.5 turnovers per game to Le Mans's 12.7 (15-game samples).
- Le Mans last played Sep 29 (4.9 days of rest); Paris last played Oct 1 in the EuroLeague (2.9 days of rest).
- Paris's Tarpey Terry played Sep 29 but was missing from the latest Oct 1 box score; no confirmed availability news was provided.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLe MansEstimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Le Mans 88.5, Paris 86.0. Le Mans cover +0.5 in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Le Mans has averaged 90.1 points and allowed 86.2 across its last 12 LNB games (Mar 14–Sep 26, including a 103-97 overtime win at Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sep 26).
- Paris has averaged 90.5 points and allowed 88.4 across its last 10 LNB games (Jun 2–Sep 27, including a 78-73 win at Nancy on Sep 27).
- In 15-game overall samples, Paris shoots 55.7% on two-pointers and 75.5% on free throws, while Le Mans shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 37.4% on three-pointers.
- Paris grabs 36.2 rebounds per game to Le Mans's 32.3, but commits 15.5 turnovers per game to Le Mans's 12.7 (15-game samples).
- Le Mans last played Sep 29 (4.9 days of rest); Paris last played Oct 1 in the EuroLeague (2.9 days of rest).
- Paris's Tarpey Terry played Sep 29 but was missing from the latest Oct 1 box score; no confirmed availability news was provided.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonLe Mans +0.5Estimated chance56.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Le Mans 88.5, Paris 86.0. Le Mans are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Le Mans has averaged 90.1 points and allowed 86.2 across its last 12 LNB games (Mar 14–Sep 26, including a 103-97 overtime win at Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sep 26).
- Paris has averaged 90.5 points and allowed 88.4 across its last 10 LNB games (Jun 2–Sep 27, including a 78-73 win at Nancy on Sep 27).
- In 15-game overall samples, Paris shoots 55.7% on two-pointers and 75.5% on free throws, while Le Mans shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 37.4% on three-pointers.
- Paris grabs 36.2 rebounds per game to Le Mans's 32.3, but commits 15.5 turnovers per game to Le Mans's 12.7 (15-game samples).
- Le Mans last played Sep 29 (4.9 days of rest); Paris last played Oct 1 in the EuroLeague (2.9 days of rest).
- Paris's Tarpey Terry played Sep 29 but was missing from the latest Oct 1 box score; no confirmed availability news was provided.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostLe MansEstimated chance55.5%

Points4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Le Mans 88.5, Paris 86.0. Le Mans score more than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Le Mans has averaged 90.1 points and allowed 86.2 across its last 12 LNB games (Mar 14–Sep 26, including a 103-97 overtime win at Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sep 26).
- Paris has averaged 90.5 points and allowed 88.4 across its last 10 LNB games (Jun 2–Sep 27, including a 78-73 win at Nancy on Sep 27).
- In 15-game overall samples, Paris shoots 55.7% on two-pointers and 75.5% on free throws, while Le Mans shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 37.4% on three-pointers.
- Paris grabs 36.2 rebounds per game to Le Mans's 32.3, but commits 15.5 turnovers per game to Le Mans's 12.7 (15-game samples).
- Le Mans last played Sep 29 (4.9 days of rest); Paris last played Oct 1 in the EuroLeague (2.9 days of rest).
- Paris's Tarpey Terry played Sep 29 but was missing from the latest Oct 1 box score; no confirmed availability news was provided.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostLe Mans over 20.5Estimated chance63.8%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Le Mans 88.5, Paris 86.0. Le Mans score more than 85.5 points (overtime included) in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Le Mans has averaged 90.1 points and allowed 86.2 across its last 12 LNB games (Mar 14–Sep 26, including a 103-97 overtime win at Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sep 26).
- Paris has averaged 90.5 points and allowed 88.4 across its last 10 LNB games (Jun 2–Sep 27, including a 78-73 win at Nancy on Sep 27).
- In 15-game overall samples, Paris shoots 55.7% on two-pointers and 75.5% on free throws, while Le Mans shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 37.4% on three-pointers.
- Paris grabs 36.2 rebounds per game to Le Mans's 32.3, but commits 15.5 turnovers per game to Le Mans's 12.7 (15-game samples).
- Le Mans last played Sep 29 (4.9 days of rest); Paris last played Oct 1 in the EuroLeague (2.9 days of rest).
- Paris's Tarpey Terry played Sep 29 but was missing from the latest Oct 1 box score; no confirmed availability news was provided.
BetBugs · Team PointswonLe Mans over 85.5Estimated chance63.1%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Le Mans 88.5, Paris 86.0. Le Mans score more than 42.5 points in the 1st half in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Le Mans has averaged 90.1 points and allowed 86.2 across its last 12 LNB games (Mar 14–Sep 26, including a 103-97 overtime win at Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sep 26).
- Paris has averaged 90.5 points and allowed 88.4 across its last 10 LNB games (Jun 2–Sep 27, including a 78-73 win at Nancy on Sep 27).
- In 15-game overall samples, Paris shoots 55.7% on two-pointers and 75.5% on free throws, while Le Mans shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 37.4% on three-pointers.
- Paris grabs 36.2 rebounds per game to Le Mans's 32.3, but commits 15.5 turnovers per game to Le Mans's 12.7 (15-game samples).
- Le Mans last played Sep 29 (4.9 days of rest); Paris last played Oct 1 in the EuroLeague (2.9 days of rest).
- Paris's Tarpey Terry played Sep 29 but was missing from the latest Oct 1 box score; no confirmed availability news was provided.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostLe Mans over 42.5Estimated chance60.5%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Le Mans 88.5, Paris 86.0. Le Mans score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Le Mans has averaged 90.1 points and allowed 86.2 across its last 12 LNB games (Mar 14–Sep 26, including a 103-97 overtime win at Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sep 26).
- Paris has averaged 90.5 points and allowed 88.4 across its last 10 LNB games (Jun 2–Sep 27, including a 78-73 win at Nancy on Sep 27).
- In 15-game overall samples, Paris shoots 55.7% on two-pointers and 75.5% on free throws, while Le Mans shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 37.4% on three-pointers.
- Paris grabs 36.2 rebounds per game to Le Mans's 32.3, but commits 15.5 turnovers per game to Le Mans's 12.7 (15-game samples).
- Le Mans last played Sep 29 (4.9 days of rest); Paris last played Oct 1 in the EuroLeague (2.9 days of rest).
- Paris's Tarpey Terry played Sep 29 but was missing from the latest Oct 1 box score; no confirmed availability news was provided.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonLe Mans over 20.5Estimated chance60.3%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Le Mans 88.5, Paris 86.0. The 2nd quarter has more than 42.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Le Mans has averaged 90.1 points and allowed 86.2 across its last 12 LNB games (Mar 14–Sep 26, including a 103-97 overtime win at Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sep 26).
- Paris has averaged 90.5 points and allowed 88.4 across its last 10 LNB games (Jun 2–Sep 27, including a 78-73 win at Nancy on Sep 27).
- In 15-game overall samples, Paris shoots 55.7% on two-pointers and 75.5% on free throws, while Le Mans shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 37.4% on three-pointers.
- Paris grabs 36.2 rebounds per game to Le Mans's 32.3, but commits 15.5 turnovers per game to Le Mans's 12.7 (15-game samples).
- Le Mans last played Sep 29 (4.9 days of rest); Paris last played Oct 1 in the EuroLeague (2.9 days of rest).
- Paris's Tarpey Terry played Sep 29 but was missing from the latest Oct 1 box score; no confirmed availability news was provided.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 42.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Le Mans 88.5, Paris 86.0. The game has more than 172.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Le Mans has averaged 90.1 points and allowed 86.2 across its last 12 LNB games (Mar 14–Sep 26, including a 103-97 overtime win at Gravelines-Dunkerque on Sep 26).
- Paris has averaged 90.5 points and allowed 88.4 across its last 10 LNB games (Jun 2–Sep 27, including a 78-73 win at Nancy on Sep 27).
- In 15-game overall samples, Paris shoots 55.7% on two-pointers and 75.5% on free throws, while Le Mans shoots 52.3% on two-pointers and 37.4% on three-pointers.
- Paris grabs 36.2 rebounds per game to Le Mans's 32.3, but commits 15.5 turnovers per game to Le Mans's 12.7 (15-game samples).
- Le Mans last played Sep 29 (4.9 days of rest); Paris last played Oct 1 in the EuroLeague (2.9 days of rest).
- Paris's Tarpey Terry played Sep 29 but was missing from the latest Oct 1 box score; no confirmed availability news was provided.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 172.5Estimated chance56.7%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 3, 14:52

Selected line

172.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

57%

Chance of 173+ points

+4 pp above break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 57%.

Move the line main 172.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 57%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 43%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L110–92

Parisv

Le Mans

Jan 18, 2026·LNB

W95–89

Le Mansv

Paris

Oct 6, 2025·LNB

W90–87

Le Mansv

Paris

Sep 20, 2025·LNB

L91–80

Parisv

Le Mans

Apr 26, 2025·FRE

L106–103

Parisv

Le Mans

Apr 6, 2025·LNB

W84–76

Le Mansv

Paris

Dec 15, 2024·LNB

L55–88

Le Mansv

Paris

Apr 6, 2024·LNB

L112–71

Parisv

Le Mans

Sep 27, 2023·LNB

W97–90

Le Mansv

Paris

Apr 25, 2023·LNB

L104–88

Parisv

Le Mans

Nov 6, 2022·LNB

180.8Avg total points

14.6Avg margin

10meetings

League table

LNB Élite · LNB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Le Mans

1–0100%

Paris

1–0100%

Recent Form

Le Mans

8W 7L · last 15

vs Aris74–87 Sep 29EUR

at Gravelines-Dunkerque103–97 OTSep 26LNB

vs Nanterre55–64 May 27LNB

at Nanterre74–90 May 25LNB

vs Limoges101–84 May 16LNB

at Saint Quentin88–85 May 9LNB

vs Nancy102–74 Apr 30LNB

vs Monaco83–87 Apr 25FRE

at Gravelines-Dunkerque96–83 Apr 18LNB

at Le Portel94–72 Apr 11LNB

vs Cholet89–94 Apr 4LNB

at Monaco85–99 Mar 29LNB

vs Boulazac108–94 Mar 21LNB

vs Hapoel Holon102–92 Mar 18CL

at JL Bourg86–98 Mar 14LNB

Paris

9W 6L · last 15

vs Zalgiris Kaunas82–78 Oct 1EUR

vs Partizan Mozzart Bet79–92 Sep 29EUR

at Nancy78–73 Sep 27LNB

at Panathinaikos72–91 Sep 24EUR

at Roanne81–59 Sep 20LNB

vs Nanterre95–88 Sep 19LNB

vs Monaco92–101 Jun 23LNB

at Monaco84–96 Jun 21LNB

at Monaco88–77 Jun 19LNB

vs Monaco90–102 Jun 17LNB

vs Monaco95–91 Jun 14LNB

at Cholet94–91 Jun 9LNB

at Cholet95–86 Jun 7LNB

vs Cholet100–77 Jun 4LNB

vs Cholet89–90 Jun 2LNB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Le Mans

Stats

2–3

Paris

Paris leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+3.4pp

52.3%

+3.4pp

55.7%

3-point %+4.8pp

37.4%

+4.8pp

32.6%

Free-throw %15/14 games+4.4pp

71.1%

+4.4pp

75.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.0pp apart

35.4%

2.0pp apart

37.4%

Free throws per shot15/14 games6.8pp apart

28.8%

6.8pp apart

35.6%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+3.9

32.3

+3.9

36.2

Turnovers per game2.8 fewer

12.7

2.8 fewer

15.5

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.