LNB ÉliteFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Gravelines-Dunkerque65Lyon-Villeurbanne70

Sun 4 Oct 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–267%

Points by period: Gravelines-Dunkerque and Lyon-Villeurbanne.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Gravelines-Dunkerque	19	15	18	13
Lyon-Villeurbanne	12	21	21	16

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Gravelines-Dunkerque have been idle since 26 September, while Lyon-Villeurbanne arrive less than two days after a EuroLeague defeat, yet Lyon have won the last six meetings between the clubs.

Lyon are the pick to be ahead after 40 minutes and to win the game, around 88-83. No price stands out at our numbers in the markets listed for this fixture.

Context

Gravelines-Dunkerque have a reported six-week absence, two reported injuries and a new medical-replacement signing three days before tip-off, all still unconfirmed; Lyon-Villeurbanne played on 2 October and may rotate.

Lyon-Villeurbanne arrive with the recent head-to-head firmly in their favour.
The last meeting at Gravelines ended 62-83, and the home side have not beaten Lyon since April 2023. Four of Lyon's six straight wins came by single digits, though, so the run is tighter than it first reads. The edge in this fixture is real, but it is not a blowout series.
- 8 Nov 2025, LNB Élite: Gravelines-Dunkerque 62, Lyon-Villeurbanne 83.
- 1 May 2026, LNB Élite: Lyon-Villeurbanne 88, Gravelines-Dunkerque 79.
- The head-to-head record covers 10 completed meetings across seasons and competitions; Lyon have won the six most recent.
Gravelines-Dunkerque have the better recent perimeter numbers of the two teams.
The two 15-game windows run from late January to late September for Gravelines and from mid-April to early October for Lyon, across all competitions. Gravelines also made 75.4% of their free throws on 333 attempts, against Lyon's 72.9% on 280 attempts across 12 games with free-throw data. That outside shooting is the clearest way the home side can stay with a Lyon team favoured to control the game.
- Gravelines-Dunkerque: 177 of 473 three-point attempts (37.4%) over 15 games from 24 Jan to 26 Sep 2026.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne: 139 of 450 three-point attempts (30.9%) over 15 games from 12 Apr to 2 Oct 2026.
- Gravelines-Dunkerque free throws: 251 of 333 (75.4%) across the same 15 games.
Gravelines-Dunkerque's scoring load falls heavily on two guards.
The data covers a single game, so these are opening-night numbers rather than a season pattern. Gilyard played 40.3 minutes and Dawkins 37.4, with J. Trefle adding 14 points off the bench in 27.3 minutes. With Gravelines' frontcourt availability reported rather than confirmed, this is the clearest picture of who scores for them.
- 26 Sep 2026 vs Le Mans: J. Gilyard 24 points in 40.3 minutes, A. Dawkins 22 points in 37.4 minutes in the 97-103 overtime loss.
- J. Trefle scored 14 points in 27.3 minutes off the bench in the same game.
- The squad information covers one game this season (latest 26 Sep 2026).

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gravelines-Dunkerque 83.3, Lyon-Villeurbanne 88.5. Lyon-Villeurbanne win in about 66 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Gravelines-Dunkerque allowed 90.2 points per game across their last 15 LNB games (24 Jan 2026 to 26 Sep 2026), including 87.9 at home.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne has won the last six head-to-head meetings, including 83-62 at Gravelines-Dunkerque on 8 Nov 2025 and 88-79 in Lyon on 1 May 2026.
- In this season's LNB opener, Lyon-Villeurbanne won 97-85 at Cholet on 27 Sep 2026, while Gravelines-Dunkerque lost 97-103 in overtime at home to Le Mans on 26 Sep 2026.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne played a EuroLeague game on 2 Oct 2026 (92-105 vs Valencia), leaving 1.85 days of rest, while Gravelines-Dunkerque have been idle since 26 Sep 2026 (7.9 days rest).
- Over the tracked samples, Gravelines-Dunkerque shot 37.4% from three-point range and 75.4% from the free-throw line, while Lyon-Villeurbanne shot 30.9% from three and 72.9% from the line.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance65.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gravelines-Dunkerque 83.3, Lyon-Villeurbanne 88.5. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Gravelines-Dunkerque allowed 90.2 points per game across their last 15 LNB games (24 Jan 2026 to 26 Sep 2026), including 87.9 at home.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne has won the last six head-to-head meetings, including 83-62 at Gravelines-Dunkerque on 8 Nov 2025 and 88-79 in Lyon on 1 May 2026.
- In this season's LNB opener, Lyon-Villeurbanne won 97-85 at Cholet on 27 Sep 2026, while Gravelines-Dunkerque lost 97-103 in overtime at home to Le Mans on 26 Sep 2026.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne played a EuroLeague game on 2 Oct 2026 (92-105 vs Valencia), leaving 1.85 days of rest, while Gravelines-Dunkerque have been idle since 26 Sep 2026 (7.9 days rest).
- Over the tracked samples, Gravelines-Dunkerque shot 37.4% from three-point range and 75.4% from the free-throw line, while Lyon-Villeurbanne shot 30.9% from three and 72.9% from the line.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance63.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gravelines-Dunkerque 83.3, Lyon-Villeurbanne 88.5. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Gravelines-Dunkerque allowed 90.2 points per game across their last 15 LNB games (24 Jan 2026 to 26 Sep 2026), including 87.9 at home.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne has won the last six head-to-head meetings, including 83-62 at Gravelines-Dunkerque on 8 Nov 2025 and 88-79 in Lyon on 1 May 2026.
- In this season's LNB opener, Lyon-Villeurbanne won 97-85 at Cholet on 27 Sep 2026, while Gravelines-Dunkerque lost 97-103 in overtime at home to Le Mans on 26 Sep 2026.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne played a EuroLeague game on 2 Oct 2026 (92-105 vs Valencia), leaving 1.85 days of rest, while Gravelines-Dunkerque have been idle since 26 Sep 2026 (7.9 days rest).
- Over the tracked samples, Gravelines-Dunkerque shot 37.4% from three-point range and 75.4% from the free-throw line, while Lyon-Villeurbanne shot 30.9% from three and 72.9% from the line.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance59.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gravelines-Dunkerque 83.3, Lyon-Villeurbanne 88.5. Lyon-Villeurbanne are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Gravelines-Dunkerque allowed 90.2 points per game across their last 15 LNB games (24 Jan 2026 to 26 Sep 2026), including 87.9 at home.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne has won the last six head-to-head meetings, including 83-62 at Gravelines-Dunkerque on 8 Nov 2025 and 88-79 in Lyon on 1 May 2026.
- In this season's LNB opener, Lyon-Villeurbanne won 97-85 at Cholet on 27 Sep 2026, while Gravelines-Dunkerque lost 97-103 in overtime at home to Le Mans on 26 Sep 2026.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne played a EuroLeague game on 2 Oct 2026 (92-105 vs Valencia), leaving 1.85 days of rest, while Gravelines-Dunkerque have been idle since 26 Sep 2026 (7.9 days rest).
- Over the tracked samples, Gravelines-Dunkerque shot 37.4% from three-point range and 75.4% from the free-throw line, while Lyon-Villeurbanne shot 30.9% from three and 72.9% from the line.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonLyon-VilleurbanneEstimated chance56.2%

Points1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gravelines-Dunkerque 83.3, Lyon-Villeurbanne 88.5. Lyon-Villeurbanne score more than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Gravelines-Dunkerque allowed 90.2 points per game across their last 15 LNB games (24 Jan 2026 to 26 Sep 2026), including 87.9 at home.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne has won the last six head-to-head meetings, including 83-62 at Gravelines-Dunkerque on 8 Nov 2025 and 88-79 in Lyon on 1 May 2026.
- In this season's LNB opener, Lyon-Villeurbanne won 97-85 at Cholet on 27 Sep 2026, while Gravelines-Dunkerque lost 97-103 in overtime at home to Le Mans on 26 Sep 2026.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne played a EuroLeague game on 2 Oct 2026 (92-105 vs Valencia), leaving 1.85 days of rest, while Gravelines-Dunkerque have been idle since 26 Sep 2026 (7.9 days rest).
- Over the tracked samples, Gravelines-Dunkerque shot 37.4% from three-point range and 75.4% from the free-throw line, while Lyon-Villeurbanne shot 30.9% from three and 72.9% from the line.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostLyon-Villeurbanne over 21.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gravelines-Dunkerque 83.3, Lyon-Villeurbanne 88.5. Lyon-Villeurbanne score fewer than 45.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Gravelines-Dunkerque allowed 90.2 points per game across their last 15 LNB games (24 Jan 2026 to 26 Sep 2026), including 87.9 at home.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne has won the last six head-to-head meetings, including 83-62 at Gravelines-Dunkerque on 8 Nov 2025 and 88-79 in Lyon on 1 May 2026.
- In this season's LNB opener, Lyon-Villeurbanne won 97-85 at Cholet on 27 Sep 2026, while Gravelines-Dunkerque lost 97-103 in overtime at home to Le Mans on 26 Sep 2026.
- Lyon-Villeurbanne played a EuroLeague game on 2 Oct 2026 (92-105 vs Valencia), leaving 1.85 days of rest, while Gravelines-Dunkerque have been idle since 26 Sep 2026 (7.9 days rest).
- Over the tracked samples, Gravelines-Dunkerque shot 37.4% from three-point range and 75.4% from the free-throw line, while Lyon-Villeurbanne shot 30.9% from three and 72.9% from the line.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonLyon-Villeurbanne under 45.5Estimated chance55.7%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 3, 14:21

Selected line

171.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

53%

Chance of 172+ points

Near break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 53%.

Move the line main 171.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 53%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 47%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L88–79

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Gravelines-Dunkerque

May 1, 2026·LNB

L62–83

Gravelines-Dunkerquev

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Nov 8, 2025·LNB

L90–83

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Gravelines-Dunkerque

Jan 19, 2025·LNB

L60–81

Gravelines-Dunkerquev

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Nov 17, 2024·LNB

L86–83

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Gravelines-Dunkerque

Mar 24, 2024·LNBOT

L74–79

Gravelines-Dunkerquev

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Sep 23, 2023·LNB

W74–68

Gravelines-Dunkerquev

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Apr 9, 2023·LNB

L83–74

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Gravelines-Dunkerque

Oct 16, 2022·LNB

L86–96

Gravelines-Dunkerquev

Lyon-Villeurbanne

May 4, 2022·LNB

W78–79

Lyon-Villeurbannev

Gravelines-Dunkerque

Mar 26, 2022·FRE

158.6Avg total points

9.2Avg margin

10meetings

League table

LNB Élite · LNB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Gravelines-Dunkerque

0–10%

Lyon-Villeurbanne

1–0100%

Recent Form

Gravelines-Dunkerque

5W 10L · last 15

vs Le Mans97–103 OTSep 26LNB

at JL Bourg78–95 May 16LNB

vs Nanterre80–85 OTMay 9LNB

at Lyon-Villeurbanne79–88 May 1LNB

vs Le Mans83–96 Apr 18LNB

at Limoges64–93 Apr 11LNB

vs Le Portel100–78 Apr 5LNB

at Chalon/Saone81–86 Mar 27LNB

vs Monaco77–89 Mar 21LNB

at Paris115–109 OTMar 15LNB

vs Boulazac91–92 Mar 8LNB

at Cholet85–91 Feb 13LNB

vs Saint Quentin91–75 Feb 7LNB

at Nancy93–88 Jan 31LNB

vs Dijon93–85 Jan 24LNB

Lyon-Villeurbanne

8W 7L · last 15

vs Valencia92–105 Oct 2EUR

at Panathinaikos79–102 Sep 30EUR

at Cholet97–85 Sep 27LNB

vs Maccabi Tel Aviv84–74 Sep 24EUR

at Roanne71–73 Sep 19LNB

vs Cholet75–80 OTMay 30LNB

at Cholet65–77 May 28LNB

vs Cholet75–67 May 26LNB

at Paris76–87 May 16LNB

vs Strasbourg89–81 May 9LNB

vs JL Bourg91–77 May 5LNB

vs Gravelines-Dunkerque88–79 May 1LNB

at Monaco87–83 Apr 19LNB

vs Fenerbahce76–81 Apr 16EUR

vs Saint Quentin86–70 Apr 12LNB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Gravelines-Dunkerque

Stats

3–2

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Gravelines-Dunkerque leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+0.9pp

54.7%

+0.9pp

55.6%

3-point %+6.5pp

37.4%

+6.5pp

30.9%

Free-throw %15/12 games+2.5pp

75.4%

+2.5pp

72.9%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s15/14 games5.5pp apart

40.6%

5.5pp apart

35.1%

Free throws per shot15/12 games2.4pp apart

34.9%

2.4pp apart

37.3%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+1.9

29.0

+1.9

30.9

Turnovers per game1.8 fewer

12.1

1.8 fewer

13.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.