Liga AFinished

Predictions graded

Gimnasia92La Union86

Sun 4 Oct 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Points by period: Gimnasia and La Union.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Gimnasia	21	30	17	24
La Union	16	19	28	23

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Gimnasia have two Liga A games behind them and a 40-minute expectation of 81.2-74.7; La Union have nothing recorded since 2026-05-03, so their current form is unmeasured.

Gimnasia are the likelier winners, but every forecast here is low confidence and La Union's scoring figures come from last season. No price is worth backing.

Context

Gimnasia played two Liga A games on 2026-09-29 and 2026-09-30 and have four days' rest, while La Union's last completed game was 2026-05-03, a gap of 154 days that leaves their current condition unmeasured.

Gimnasia took the most recent meeting by nine points, on La Union's floor.
Gimnasia won 86-77 at La Union on 2026-03-08, the newest of ten recorded meetings dating back to 2021. Those ten meetings have averaged about 158 points, so the series has not been a high-scoring one. One game five months ago does not settle the current picture, especially with La Union unplayed this season.
- Most recent meeting: La Union 77-86 Gimnasia in Liga A on 2026-03-08.
- The head-to-head record covers ten completed meetings from 2021 to 2026.
La Union finished that 14-game run at 55.6% on two-pointers and 77.0% at the line, getting to the stripe often relative to their field-goal attempts. One of their 15 games in the same stretch has no complete figures, and none of it comes from this season. Whether that shooting carries into 2026-2027 is not something the record answers.
- La Union made 265 of 477 two-pointers (55.6%) and 264 of 343 free throws (77.0%) across the 14 of their last 15 Liga A games from 2026-02-19 to 2026-05-03 that have complete figures.
- Free-throw attempts relative to field-goal attempts in that run: 343 of 850.
Chacon Marcos has scored the most and played the most minutes in Gimnasia's two games, on 2026-09-29 and 2026-09-30. Dato and Rivero follow, but the rest of the rotation has been under six points a game so far. Two games are a thin basis for a rotation picture, and La Union have no player figures this season for comparison.
- In Gimnasia's two 2026-2027 Liga A games (2026-09-29 and 2026-09-30), Chacon Marcos averaged 17.0 points in 28.9 minutes.
- M. Dato averaged 11.5 points in 27.7 minutes and C. Rivero 10.5 in 24.3 over the same two games.
The placing gap mostly reflects scheduling: Gimnasia have played twice this season and La Union not at all. Two rounds in, 5th against 10th says little about the two teams. La Union's own scoring history ends on 2026-05-03, so their position will only fill in as they take the floor.
- Table observed 2026-10-03: Gimnasia 5th with two Liga A games played, 1-1, 149 points for and 136 against.
- La Union listed 10th with no games played in the 2026-2027 Liga A season.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gimnasia 81.2, La Union 74.7. Gimnasia win in about 70 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Gimnasia has played two 2026-2027 Liga A games, scoring 74.5 points and allowing 68.0, with a 57-point game at Penarol on 2026-09-30 and a 92-point game at Lanus on 2026-09-29.
- Across Gimnasia's 15 tracked games from 2026-05-16 to 2026-09-30, they averaged 75.1 points scored and 71.5 allowed.
- La Union's last 15 Liga A games (2026-02-19 to 2026-05-03) averaged 84.7 scored and 84.6 allowed, but they have no 2026-2027 games or player box scores.
- In 10 head-to-head meetings from 2021 to 2026, the average total was about 158 points; in the most recent, on 2026-03-08, La Union lost 77-86 to Gimnasia.
- At Gimnasia in the last five head-to-heads, La Union averaged 72.8 points while Gimnasia averaged 80.4.
- La Union are listed with 0 games played in the current Liga A table and last played on 2026-05-03, a 154-day gap before this match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGimnasiaEstimated chance69.6%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gimnasia 81.2, La Union 74.7. Gimnasia are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 68 of 100 games like this.
- Gimnasia has played two 2026-2027 Liga A games, scoring 74.5 points and allowing 68.0, with a 57-point game at Penarol on 2026-09-30 and a 92-point game at Lanus on 2026-09-29.
- Across Gimnasia's 15 tracked games from 2026-05-16 to 2026-09-30, they averaged 75.1 points scored and 71.5 allowed.
- La Union's last 15 Liga A games (2026-02-19 to 2026-05-03) averaged 84.7 scored and 84.6 allowed, but they have no 2026-2027 games or player box scores.
- In 10 head-to-head meetings from 2021 to 2026, the average total was about 158 points; in the most recent, on 2026-03-08, La Union lost 77-86 to Gimnasia.
- At Gimnasia in the last five head-to-heads, La Union averaged 72.8 points while Gimnasia averaged 80.4.
- La Union are listed with 0 games played in the current Liga A table and last played on 2026-05-03, a 154-day gap before this match.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonGimnasiaEstimated chance67.6%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gimnasia 81.2, La Union 74.7. Gimnasia are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Gimnasia has played two 2026-2027 Liga A games, scoring 74.5 points and allowing 68.0, with a 57-point game at Penarol on 2026-09-30 and a 92-point game at Lanus on 2026-09-29.
- Across Gimnasia's 15 tracked games from 2026-05-16 to 2026-09-30, they averaged 75.1 points scored and 71.5 allowed.
- La Union's last 15 Liga A games (2026-02-19 to 2026-05-03) averaged 84.7 scored and 84.6 allowed, but they have no 2026-2027 games or player box scores.
- In 10 head-to-head meetings from 2021 to 2026, the average total was about 158 points; in the most recent, on 2026-03-08, La Union lost 77-86 to Gimnasia.
- At Gimnasia in the last five head-to-heads, La Union averaged 72.8 points while Gimnasia averaged 80.4.
- La Union are listed with 0 games played in the current Liga A table and last played on 2026-05-03, a 154-day gap before this match.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonGimnasiaEstimated chance62.6%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gimnasia 81.2, La Union 74.7. Gimnasia are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Gimnasia has played two 2026-2027 Liga A games, scoring 74.5 points and allowing 68.0, with a 57-point game at Penarol on 2026-09-30 and a 92-point game at Lanus on 2026-09-29.
- Across Gimnasia's 15 tracked games from 2026-05-16 to 2026-09-30, they averaged 75.1 points scored and 71.5 allowed.
- La Union's last 15 Liga A games (2026-02-19 to 2026-05-03) averaged 84.7 scored and 84.6 allowed, but they have no 2026-2027 games or player box scores.
- In 10 head-to-head meetings from 2021 to 2026, the average total was about 158 points; in the most recent, on 2026-03-08, La Union lost 77-86 to Gimnasia.
- At Gimnasia in the last five head-to-heads, La Union averaged 72.8 points while Gimnasia averaged 80.4.
- La Union are listed with 0 games played in the current Liga A table and last played on 2026-05-03, a 154-day gap before this match.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonGimnasiaEstimated chance58.4%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gimnasia 81.2, La Union 74.7. Gimnasia are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Gimnasia has played two 2026-2027 Liga A games, scoring 74.5 points and allowing 68.0, with a 57-point game at Penarol on 2026-09-30 and a 92-point game at Lanus on 2026-09-29.
- Across Gimnasia's 15 tracked games from 2026-05-16 to 2026-09-30, they averaged 75.1 points scored and 71.5 allowed.
- La Union's last 15 Liga A games (2026-02-19 to 2026-05-03) averaged 84.7 scored and 84.6 allowed, but they have no 2026-2027 games or player box scores.
- In 10 head-to-head meetings from 2021 to 2026, the average total was about 158 points; in the most recent, on 2026-03-08, La Union lost 77-86 to Gimnasia.
- At Gimnasia in the last five head-to-heads, La Union averaged 72.8 points while Gimnasia averaged 80.4.
- La Union are listed with 0 games played in the current Liga A table and last played on 2026-05-03, a 154-day gap before this match.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultwonGimnasiaEstimated chance55.9%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gimnasia 81.2, La Union 74.7. La Union cover +2.5 in the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Gimnasia has played two 2026-2027 Liga A games, scoring 74.5 points and allowing 68.0, with a 57-point game at Penarol on 2026-09-30 and a 92-point game at Lanus on 2026-09-29.
- Across Gimnasia's 15 tracked games from 2026-05-16 to 2026-09-30, they averaged 75.1 points scored and 71.5 allowed.
- La Union's last 15 Liga A games (2026-02-19 to 2026-05-03) averaged 84.7 scored and 84.6 allowed, but they have no 2026-2027 games or player box scores.
- In 10 head-to-head meetings from 2021 to 2026, the average total was about 158 points; in the most recent, on 2026-03-08, La Union lost 77-86 to Gimnasia.
- At Gimnasia in the last five head-to-heads, La Union averaged 72.8 points while Gimnasia averaged 80.4.
- La Union are listed with 0 games played in the current Liga A table and last played on 2026-05-03, a 154-day gap before this match.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicaplostLa Union +2.5Estimated chance55.3%

Points1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gimnasia 81.2, La Union 74.7. The 1st half has fewer than 80.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Gimnasia has played two 2026-2027 Liga A games, scoring 74.5 points and allowing 68.0, with a 57-point game at Penarol on 2026-09-30 and a 92-point game at Lanus on 2026-09-29.
- Across Gimnasia's 15 tracked games from 2026-05-16 to 2026-09-30, they averaged 75.1 points scored and 71.5 allowed.
- La Union's last 15 Liga A games (2026-02-19 to 2026-05-03) averaged 84.7 scored and 84.6 allowed, but they have no 2026-2027 games or player box scores.
- In 10 head-to-head meetings from 2021 to 2026, the average total was about 158 points; in the most recent, on 2026-03-08, La Union lost 77-86 to Gimnasia.
- At Gimnasia in the last five head-to-heads, La Union averaged 72.8 points while Gimnasia averaged 80.4.
- La Union are listed with 0 games played in the current Liga A table and last played on 2026-05-03, a 154-day gap before this match.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostUnder 80.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Gimnasia 81.2, La Union 74.7. La Union score fewer than 38.5 points in the 1st half in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Gimnasia has played two 2026-2027 Liga A games, scoring 74.5 points and allowing 68.0, with a 57-point game at Penarol on 2026-09-30 and a 92-point game at Lanus on 2026-09-29.
- Across Gimnasia's 15 tracked games from 2026-05-16 to 2026-09-30, they averaged 75.1 points scored and 71.5 allowed.
- La Union's last 15 Liga A games (2026-02-19 to 2026-05-03) averaged 84.7 scored and 84.6 allowed, but they have no 2026-2027 games or player box scores.
- In 10 head-to-head meetings from 2021 to 2026, the average total was about 158 points; in the most recent, on 2026-03-08, La Union lost 77-86 to Gimnasia.
- At Gimnasia in the last five head-to-heads, La Union averaged 72.8 points while Gimnasia averaged 80.4.
- La Union are listed with 0 games played in the current Liga A table and last played on 2026-05-03, a 154-day gap before this match.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonLa Union under 38.5Estimated chance56.9%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 3, 22:22

Selected line

157.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

48%

Chance of 158+ points

8 pp below break-even

Over 1.78 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 48%.

Move the line main 157.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W77–86

La Unionv

Gimnasia

Mar 8, 2026·LIG

L61–69

Gimnasiav

La Union

Oct 15, 2025·LIG

W86–79

Gimnasiav

La Union

Mar 15, 2025·LIG

W76–81

La Unionv

Gimnasia

Dec 1, 2024·LIG

W85–83

Gimnasiav

La Union

Feb 16, 2024·LIG

L99–80

La Unionv

Gimnasia

Oct 5, 2023·LIG

W90–77

Gimnasiav

La Union

Dec 4, 2022·LIG

W67–72

La Unionv

Gimnasia

Oct 25, 2022·LIG

L91–84

La Unionv

Gimnasia

Dec 22, 2021·LIG

W80–56

Gimnasiav

La Union

Dec 9, 2021·LIG

157.9Avg total points

9.9Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Liga A · Liga A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Gimnasia

1–150%

La Union

0–0—

Recent Form

Gimnasia

9W 6L · last 15

at Penarol57–62 Sep 30LIG

at Lanus92–74 Sep 29LIG

vs Quimsa68–56 Jun 21LIG

at Quimsa60–88 Jun 18LIG

vs Quimsa74–77 OTJun 14LIG

vs Quimsa76–59 Jun 12LIG

at Quimsa80–79 Jun 9LIG

at Quimsa82–73 Jun 6LIG

vs Ferro88–54 Jun 3LIG

at Ferro73–81 May 30LIG

at Ferro70–74 May 28LIG

vs Ferro79–74 May 25LIG

vs Ferro81–77 May 23LIG

vs Independiente de Oliva81–71 May 19LIG

at Independiente de Oliva66–74 May 16LIG

La Union

7W 8L · last 15

at Independiente de Oliva92–97 May 3LIG

at Independiente de Oliva78–83 May 1LIG

vs Independiente de Oliva86–62 Apr 27LIG

vs Independiente de Oliva91–102 Apr 25LIG

vs Atenas82–84 Apr 18LIG

vs Penarol91–85 Apr 15LIG

at Quimsa61–82 Apr 8LIG

at Olimpico78–87 Apr 6LIG

vs Boca Juniors83–93 Mar 28LIG

vs Independiente de Oliva103–91 Mar 19LIG

vs Ferro91–72 Mar 16LIG

at Platense86–84 Mar 12LIG

at Union De Santa Fe99–94 Mar 11LIG

vs Gimnasia77–86 Mar 8LIG

at Regatas73–67 Feb 19LIG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Gimnasia

Stats

0–4

La Union

14 games

La Union leads in 4 of 4 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+3.2pp

52.4%

+3.2pp

55.6%

3-point %+3.8pp

30.0%

+3.8pp

33.8%

Free-throw %+4.6pp

72.4%

+4.6pp

77.0%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.4pp apart

32.7%

0.4pp apart

32.3%

Free throws per shot8.9pp apart

31.5%

8.9pp apart

40.4%

Possession· 0–1

Rebounds per game+0.2

35.1

+0.2

35.3

Turnovers per game—

0.0

—

0.0

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.