Liga ACBFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Forca Lleida81San Pablo Burgos94

Sun 4 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: Forca Lleida and San Pablo Burgos.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Forca Lleida	20	21	13	27
San Pablo Burgos	19	20	17	38

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Both sides are one ACB game old and about two points apart over 40 minutes, and Burgos arrive on a short turnaround after a Eurocup win.

Lleida edge the winner market, while Burgos with a 6.5-point start is the stronger side of the handicap at an expected 93-91. On price, the third quarter under 47.5 combined points at 1.93 is the one selection with enough behind it.

Context

Current-season evidence is thin: one completed game for Lleida and two for Burgos across all competitions. The concrete conditions are Lleida's roughly seven days between games against Burgos' three-and-a-half-day turnaround and their 3 October trip to Lleida.

Lleida's only league game this season was a 105-100 road win at Valencia, and it is the newest of their last 15 completed games. It shows the team can score in the hundreds, though they also conceded 100 in it, and one game cannot settle how good the defence is. It is the sole current-season evidence for the home side here.
- Forca Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia in ACB on 2026-09-27, their only completed game of the 2026-2027 season.
- It is the newest of Lleida's last 15 completed games, a run that goes back to 2026-03-08.
Burgos opened the ACB season with a 97-98 home defeat to Baskonia on 27 September, their only league game so far, so they are still without a win in the competition this season. The one-point margin is not a form trend, but it does show they were competitive against a solid opponent. One result carries little weight on its own.
- San Pablo Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia in ACB on 2026-09-27, their only league result of the season so far.
- It is one of Burgos' last 15 completed games across competitions, a run that goes back to 2026-03-15.
Burgos' 99-91 home win on 2 May 2026 is the most recent of the ten meetings on record, a set stretching back to 2016. It shows Burgos can put up a big number against this opponent, but it was played in Burgos, and this fixture is in Lleida. One meeting says little about the next one, which is why the awayside's +6.5 start carries weight rather than a straight prediction of another eight-point margin.
- San Pablo Burgos beat Forca Lleida 99-91 at home in ACB on 2026-05-02, an eight-point margin.
- It is the most recent of ten recorded meetings between the clubs, a set that goes back to 2016.
Lleida's bench produced 23 points from Jame Batemon in 21.9 minutes in the season opener, more than any starter managed. That kind of depth matters if D. McGhee, who scored 21 as a starter, is contained in this game. One game with player figures this season is a thin basis for expecting a repeat.
- Jame Batemon scored 23 points in 21.9 minutes off the bench in Lleida's 105-100 win at Valencia on 2026-09-27.
- D. McGhee added 21 points in 23.9 minutes as a starter in the same game; Lleida have one game with player figures this season.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

3rd Quarter Total PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 47.5

1.93fair 1.66

Market 51.8% · BetBugs 60.2%

+8.4ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 47.5 points in about 60 of 100 games like this. Lleida's home court and extra rest give it a narrow edge, but Burgos scored efficiently last season and has kept games close this year. Both teams have played high-scoring games recently, so a total in the low 180s is likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. San Pablo Burgos cover +6.5 (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · HandicapwonSan Pablo Burgos +6.5Estimated chance62.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. San Pablo Burgos cover +3.5 in the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonSan Pablo Burgos +3.5Estimated chance59.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. Forca Lleida win in about 57 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostForca LleidaEstimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. San Pablo Burgos cover +1.5 in the 1st quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter HandicapwonSan Pablo Burgos +1.5Estimated chance55.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. Forca Lleida are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostForca LleidaEstimated chance54.9%

Points5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. Forca Lleida score fewer than 24.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonForca Lleida under 24.5Estimated chance61.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.93
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 47.5 points in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 47.5Estimated chance60.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. San Pablo Burgos score more than 21.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostSan Pablo Burgos over 21.5Estimated chance59.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. San Pablo Burgos score more than 21.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointslostSan Pablo Burgos over 21.5Estimated chance59.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. Forca Lleida score fewer than 96.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · Team PointswonForca Lleida under 96.5Estimated chance59.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. San Pablo Burgos score fewer than 23.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonSan Pablo Burgos under 23.5Estimated chance57.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. The 1st half has more than 90.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointslostOver 90.5Estimated chance56.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. San Pablo Burgos score more than 44.5 points in the 1st half in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointslostSan Pablo Burgos over 44.5Estimated chance55.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Forca Lleida 93.3, San Pablo Burgos 91.0. The game has fewer than 187.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Lleida won 105-100 at Valencia on 2026-09-27, its only ACB game this season.
- Burgos lost 97-98 at home to Baskonia on 2026-09-27 and beat Cedevita Olimpija 85-81 at home in the Eurocup on 2026-09-30.
- Last season in ACB, Lleida averaged 87.5 points scored and 96.1 allowed in 14 games, while Burgos averaged 92.9 scored and 93.2 allowed in 13 games.
- In last season's H2H, Burgos won 99-91 at home and Lleida won 73-72 at home.
- Lleida has had 6.75 days rest since its last game, while Burgos has had 3.65 days and traveled to Lleida on 2026-10-03.
BetBugs · Total PointswonUnder 187.5Estimated chance55.6%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 3, 21:19

Selected line

187.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

44%

Chance of 188+ points

7 pp below break-even

Over 1.93 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 44%.

Move the line main 187.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 44%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 56%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L99–91

San Pablo Burgosv

Forca Lleida

May 2, 2026·ACB

W73–72

Forca Lleidav

San Pablo Burgos

Jan 24, 2026·ACB

W77–80

San Pablo Burgosv

Forca Lleida

Jun 8, 2024·LEB

W77–72

Forca Lleidav

San Pablo Burgos

Mar 13, 2024·LEB

L79–66

San Pablo Burgosv

Forca Lleida

Oct 14, 2023·LEB

L90–78

San Pablo Burgosv

Forca Lleida

May 5, 2023·LEB

W85–79

Forca Lleidav

San Pablo Burgos

Jan 8, 2023·LEB

L78–80

Forca Lleidav

San Pablo Burgos

Jan 3, 2017·LEB

W81–88

San Pablo Burgosv

Forca Lleida

Sep 30, 2016·LEB

W91–84

Forca Lleidav

San Pablo Burgos

Jan 15, 2016·LEBOT

162Avg total points

6.4Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Liga ACB · ACB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Forca Lleida

1–0100%

San Pablo Burgos

0–10%

Recent Form

Forca Lleida

5W 10L · last 15

at Valencia105–100 Sep 27ACB

at Murcia95–116 May 29ACB

vs MoraBanc Andorra88–116 May 24ACB

vs Gran Canaria75–72 May 17ACB

at Breogan87–114 May 13ACB

vs Bilbao90–81 May 10ACB

at San Pablo Burgos91–99 May 2ACB

at Unicaja72–91 Apr 25ACB

vs Barcelona90–80 Apr 19ACB

at Basket Zaragoza91–107 Apr 11ACB

vs Tenerife103–101 Apr 5ACB

at Granada89–92 Mar 28ACB

vs Joventut Badalona86–88 Mar 22ACB

at Real Madrid78–95 Mar 15ACB

at Baskonia90–93 Mar 8ACB

San Pablo Burgos

8W 7L · last 15

vs Cedevita Olimpija85–81 Sep 30EUR

vs Baskonia97–98 Sep 27ACB

vs Granada110–105 May 29ACB

at Joventut Badalona79–86 May 24ACB

at MoraBanc Andorra85–83 May 17ACB

vs Unicaja97–90 May 14ACB

at Barcelona76–91 May 9ACB

vs Forca Lleida99–91 May 2ACB

at Manresa101–94 Apr 26ACB

vs Breogan94–99 Apr 19ACB

vs Real Madrid78–94 Apr 12ACB

at Gran Canaria109–95 Apr 4ACB

vs Valencia74–79 Mar 29ACB

at Basket Zaragoza98–108 Mar 21ACB

vs Baskonia107–96 Mar 15ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Forca Lleida

Stats

3–2

San Pablo Burgos

Forca Lleida leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+1.4pp

56.7%

+1.4pp

55.3%

3-point %+2.5pp

31.9%

+2.5pp

34.4%

Free-throw %15/14 games+3.0pp

75.7%

+3.0pp

72.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s1.8pp apart

26.6%

1.8pp apart

28.4%

Free throws per shot15/14 games6.4pp apart

35.6%

6.4pp apart

29.2%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+0.5

32.8

+0.5

33.3

Turnovers per game0.5 fewer

12.4

0.5 fewer

12.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.