Liga ACBFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Baskonia118Basquet Girona78

Sun 4 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Points by period: Baskonia and Basquet Girona.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Baskonia	20	34	32	32
Basquet Girona	26	16	19	17

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Baskonia's inside efficiency against Girona's three-point shooting is the tension in Vitoria.

A 40-minute expectation of about 93.5-82.5 makes Baskonia clear favourites to win, and under 182.5 combined points at 1.92 is the one price worth backing. Girona to score over 85.5 points at 1.82 is not.

Context

Girona's disrupted journey — reported as a road trip via Zaragoza after their flight did not leave — and Baskonia's 1.9-day turnaround after a 2 October EuroLeague game are the conditions that could shape this fixture. Neither is confirmed to change preparation, the scheduled start, or how either team plays.

Girona's 2024 road win in this arena shows the trip has not always ended badly for them.
Baskonia have taken both 2025-2026 meetings, 94-81 at home on 22 March 2026 and 96-85 in Girona on 11 January 2026. Girona's two wins in the eight most recent meetings came by 96-92 in Vitoria and 96-67 at home in January 2025. The history keeps a Girona upset possible without making it likely.
- 5 May 2024: Baskonia 92-96 Basquet Girona in ACB, a Girona road win.
- The head-to-head record covers eight completed meetings, from 2022-2023 through 2025-2026.
Both teams shoot a similar percentage from beyond the arc over their 15-game windows: Girona 34.8% (169 of 486) and Baskonia 34.2% (147 of 430). The difference is volume, and Baskonia's edge comes inside, where they made 58.3% of two-pointers (316 of 542) against Girona's 50.2% (267 of 532). A hot Girona night from three is the clearest route to a close game.
- Away overall, 15 completed games to 27 September 2026: three-point share of scored points 507 of 1,256 (40.4%).
- Same 15 games: three-point shooting 169 of 486 (34.8%); two-point shooting 267 of 532 (50.2%).
Duarte (10.2 points in 21.3 minutes) and Stewart (10.3 points in 22.4 minutes over four games) share the load behind him. Frisch, who appeared in four of the five games, missed the latest one on 2 October, an observation rather than a confirmed absence. Baskonia's scoring spread means Girona cannot key on a single player.
- Home squad, five games this season with player statistics: Lawson A.J. 15.6 points and 23.3 minutes per game.
- Duarte Chris 10.2 points in 21.3 minutes; Stewart D.J. 10.3 points in 22.4 minutes over four games.
- Frisch Clement last played on 29 September 2026 and is listed as missing from the latest game.
Non-starters accounted for 52 of Girona's 84 points that day, well ahead of the starting five. It is the only Girona game this season with player statistics, so this is a single-game picture rather than a pattern. If the game in Vitoria stays close, that bench output is the most concrete recent evidence behind it.
- Away squad covers one game this season: the 84-77 home win over Murcia on 27 September 2026.
- Perez J.: 20 points in 22 minutes, zero starts.
- Whittaker S.: 19 points in 26 minutes, zero starts.
- Non-starters combined for 52 of Girona's 84 points in that game.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Total Pointsnot gradableUncertainty band: Lean

Under 182.5

1.92fair 1.57

Market 52.1% · BetBugs 63.9%

+11.8ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. The game has fewer than 182.5 points (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this. Baskonia's better inside shooting and higher free-throw rate, plus home court, point to a solid scoring advantage. Girona's reliance on three-pointers could keep the game closer if they shoot well, but Baskonia's overall efficiency should carry the day.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. Baskonia win in about 81 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBaskoniaEstimated chance80.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. Baskonia are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 79 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonBaskoniaEstimated chance79.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. Baskonia are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 72 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonBaskoniaEstimated chance71.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. Baskonia are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonBaskoniaEstimated chance65.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. Baskonia are ahead at the end of the 1st quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter ResultlostBaskoniaEstimated chance61.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. Baskonia are ahead at the end of the 3rd quarter in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter ResultwonBaskoniaEstimated chance60.1%

Points2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. The 3rd quarter has fewer than 46.5 points in about 66 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointslostUnder 46.5Estimated chance65.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.92
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. The game has fewer than 182.5 points (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · Total PointslostUnder 182.5Estimated chance63.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. Baskonia score fewer than 24.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostBaskonia under 24.5Estimated chance61.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. Basquet Girona score fewer than 85.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · Team PointswonBasquet Girona under 85.5Estimated chance60.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. Baskonia score fewer than 96.5 points (overtime included) in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · Team PointslostBaskonia under 96.5Estimated chance59.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Baskonia 93.5, Basquet Girona 82.5. Basquet Girona score fewer than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Baskonia has averaged 94.8 points in its 9 home games from the last 15 completed games, while Girona has allowed 91.7 points in its 7 away games in the same span.
- Baskonia's two-point shooting is 58.3% over 15 games, compared to Girona's 50.2%.
- Baskonia's free-throw rate is 35.1% over 15 games, while Girona's is 28.3%.
- Girona gets 40.4% of its points from three-pointers over 15 games, while Baskonia gets 32.9% from three.
- In the last two head-to-head ACB meetings (2025-2026), Baskonia won 94-81 at home and 96-85 away.
- Baskonia played 2026-10-02 (EuroLeague) and has 1.9 days rest, while Girona last played 2026-09-27 and has 7.0 days rest.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonBasquet Girona under 21.5Estimated chance57%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 3, 21:19

Selected line

182.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

36%

Chance of 183+ points

16 pp below break-even

Over 1.92 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 36%.

Move the line main 182.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 36%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 64%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W94–81

Baskoniav

Basquet Girona

Mar 22, 2026·ACB

W85–96

Basquet Gironav

Baskonia

Jan 11, 2026·ACB

W92–76

Baskoniav

Basquet Girona

Apr 6, 2025·ACB

L96–67

Basquet Gironav

Baskonia

Jan 12, 2025·ACB

L92–96

Baskoniav

Basquet Girona

May 5, 2024·ACB

W85–93

Basquet Gironav

Baskonia

Dec 30, 2023·ACB

W70–75

Basquet Gironav

Baskonia

May 24, 2023·ACB

W95–68

Baskoniav

Basquet Girona

Nov 27, 2022·ACB

170.1Avg total points

14.1Avg margin

8meetings

League table

Liga ACB · ACB - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Baskonia

1–0100%

Basquet Girona

1–0100%

Recent Form

Baskonia

9W 6L · last 15

vs Olimpia Milano87–76 Oct 2EUR

at Valencia88–111 Sep 29EUR

at San Pablo Burgos98–97 Sep 27ACB

vs Olympiacos89–106 Sep 24EUR

at Joventut Badalona84–96 Sep 19SUP

vs Joventut Badalona88–96 Jun 7ACB

at Joventut Badalona63–82 Jun 5ACB

vs Joventut Badalona85–71 Jun 3ACB

vs Unicaja92–89 May 29ACB

at Real Madrid88–83 May 27ACB

vs Granada121–85 May 17ACB

vs Murcia87–80 May 14ACB

at Valencia88–86 May 10ACB

vs Breogan112–84 May 3ACB

vs Barcelona92–95 Apr 26ACB

Basquet Girona

5W 10L · last 15

vs Murcia84–77 Sep 27ACB

vs Joventut Badalona82–77 May 29ACB

at Bilbao80–86 May 24ACB

at Breogan76–95 May 16ACB

vs Manresa74–79 May 12ACB

at Murcia75–86 May 9ACB

vs Basket Zaragoza90–81 May 2ACB

at Gran Canaria90–100 Apr 25ACB

vs Valencia81–84 Apr 19ACB

at Tenerife94–97 Apr 11ACB

at Granada91–84 Apr 4ACB

vs Real Madrid93–95 Mar 28ACB

at Baskonia81–94 Mar 22ACB

vs MoraBanc Andorra82–75 Mar 15ACB

vs Unicaja83–90 Mar 8ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Baskonia

Stats

3–2

Basquet Girona

Baskonia leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+8.1pp

58.3%

+8.1pp

50.2%

3-point %+0.6pp

34.2%

+0.6pp

34.8%

Free-throw %+3.9pp

78.6%

+3.9pp

74.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s7.5pp apart

32.9%

7.5pp apart

40.4%

Free throws per shot6.8pp apart

35.1%

6.8pp apart

28.3%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+3.0

32.7

+3.0

35.7

Turnovers per game2.0 fewer

11.9

2.0 fewer

13.9

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.