NBLFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Adelaide89Brisbane Bullets96

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 06:00 Predictions graded

Predictions16–480%

Edges2–0100%

Points by period: Adelaide and Brisbane Bullets.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Adelaide	17	26	23	23
Brisbane Bullets	30	20	26	20

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Adelaide have won the last four against Brisbane, but an 82-point home scoring rate this season keeps a short-handed Brisbane within reach.

Adelaide stay the likelier winner over 40 minutes and in the full game, though 1.22 asks more than that form supports. Brisbane to win at 3.8 and Adelaide under 25.5 first-quarter points at 1.74 are the two prices that offer something.

Context

Brisbane's confirmed absences in the backcourt and frontcourt shape the matchup, and Adelaide's own rotation is thinner with Cameron still out and Humphries retired; starting lineups for 1 November are not yet confirmed.

Cameron's absence leaves Adelaide without a guard option for this game. Gleeson said the team's depth had been stretched without Cameron and Bul Kuol, while Keanu Rasmussen had been covering Cameron's minutes. Official confirmation for 1 November is pending.
- Cameron was not named for Adelaide's 30 October game against New Zealand, his eighth straight absence.
- Trevor Gleeson said on 29 October that Cameron was still recovering and had no return timeline.
Humphries' retirement removes a centre from Adelaide's season-long options rather than creating a one-game absence. He is moving into a non-playing club role covering community, marketing and commercial work.
- Humphries announced his retirement on 19 October.
- He said his knee injury had worsened over time and reached a breaking point at the start of the season.
Velička's confirmed absence removes Brisbane's regular guard option for this fixture. Raul Neto joined as his injury replacement and was named in Brisbane's starting five on 29 October, but that does not confirm the lineup for Adelaide.
- Brisbane ruled Velička out on 12 October and set his expected return for the start of December.
- The league described the issue as a lower-limb injury.
The original six-week recovery window reaches beyond 1 November, making McDaniel unavailable for Adelaide. Brisbane added Mawot Mag as an injury-replacement player during McDaniel's absence.
- Brisbane announced on 7 October that McDaniel had a lower-leg injury and an estimated six-week return.
- McDaniel was still listed out for Brisbane's 21 October game against Tasmania.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Brisbane Bullets

3.80fair 2.84

Market 26.3% · BetBugs 35.2%

+8.9ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Brisbane Bullets win in about 35 of 100 games like this, overtime included. Adelaide have the stronger recent head-to-head record, a higher-scoring offense and face a Brisbane defense that has allowed around 101 points a game over the last six, with Brisbane's backcourt and frontcourt depth thinned by injury. Brisbane still score at a decent rate, so the gap stays modest rather than reflecting last season's lopsided meetings.

1st Quarter Team PointswonUncertainty band: Lean

Adelaide under 25.5

1.74fair 1.61

Market 57.5% · BetBugs 62.3%

+4.8ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Adelaide score fewer than 25.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this. Adelaide have the stronger recent head-to-head record, a higher-scoring offense and face a Brisbane defense that has allowed around 101 points a game over the last six, with Brisbane's backcourt and frontcourt depth thinned by injury. Brisbane still score at a decent rate, so the gap stays modest rather than reflecting last season's lopsided meetings.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Brisbane Bullets cover +5.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 73 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Adelaide and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapwonBrisbane Bullets +5.5Estimated chance73.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Adelaide win in about 65 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAdelaideEstimated chance64.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Adelaide are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 63 of 100 games like this.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minlostAdelaideEstimated chance62.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Adelaide cover +0.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 61 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Adelaide and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonAdelaide +0.5Estimated chance60.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Adelaide are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 59 of 100 games like this.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultlostAdelaideEstimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Brisbane Bullets cover +7.5 (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · HandicapwonBrisbane Bullets +7.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Brisbane Bullets cover +4.5 in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapwonBrisbane Bullets +4.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Adelaide are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultwonAdelaideEstimated chance55.5%

Points11 of 12 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Brisbane Bullets score more than 20.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Adelaide and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonBrisbane Bullets over 20.5Estimated chance65.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. The 3rd quarter has more than 43.5 points in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Adelaide and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointswonOver 43.5Estimated chance64.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Adelaide score fewer than 25.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Adelaide and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointswonAdelaide under 25.5Estimated chance64.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Brisbane Bullets score fewer than 24.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Adelaide and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonBrisbane Bullets under 24.5Estimated chance63.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.74
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Adelaide score fewer than 25.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointswonAdelaide under 25.5Estimated chance62.3%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. The 1st quarter has fewer than 48.5 points in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Total PointswonUnder 48.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 48.5 points in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Adelaide and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonUnder 48.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Adelaide score fewer than 98.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · Team PointswonAdelaide under 98.5Estimated chance57.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Adelaide score fewer than 49.5 points in the 1st half in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointswonAdelaide under 49.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. The 1st half has fewer than 95.5 points in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 1st Half Total PointswonUnder 95.5Estimated chance57.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Brisbane Bullets score fewer than 23.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointslostBrisbane Bullets under 23.5Estimated chance55.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Adelaide 95.8, Brisbane Bullets 91.0. Adelaide score more than 23.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Adelaide and 15 for Brisbane Bullets, across seasons and competitions.
- Adelaide average 91.2 scored and 93.5 conceded across 10 NBL games this season (through 30 October), including 108 in the 30 October win at New Zealand.
- Brisbane have conceded 100.8 points per game over their last six NBL games (21 October – 29 October), capped by a 107-85 home loss to Cairns on 29 October.
- Adelaide won all four meetings with Brisbane last season (2025-26 NBL), including 107-74 on 28 January 2026 and 97-86 on 4 January 2026.
- Brisbane are missing Velička (ruled out 12 October, return early December), McDaniel (7 October, ~six weeks) and Holt (20 October, five weeks); Raul Neto has started the last two games in the backcourt.
- Shooting splits over the tracked sample favour Adelaide from three (32.6% vs 28.6%) while two-point accuracy is nearly even (54.2% vs 54.4%).
- Brisbane turn the ball over 14.1 times per game against Adelaide's 10.5 across 15 tracked games, giving Adelaide extra possessions.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonAdelaide over 23.5Estimated chance55.5%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 31, 04:24

Selected line

189.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

46%

Chance of 190+ points

7 pp below break-even

Over 1.89 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 46%.

Move the line main 189.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 46%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 55%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W74–107

Brisbane Bulletsv

Adelaide

Jan 28, 2026·NBL

W86–97

Brisbane Bulletsv

Adelaide

Jan 4, 2026·NBL

W90–65

Adelaidev

Brisbane Bullets

Dec 5, 2025·NBL

W87–80

Adelaidev

Brisbane Bullets

Sep 28, 2025·NBL

L89–92

Adelaidev

Brisbane Bullets

Jan 31, 2025·NBL

L90–111

Adelaidev

Brisbane Bullets

Dec 24, 2024·NBL

L102–83

Brisbane Bulletsv

Adelaide

Dec 6, 2024·NBL

L102–84

Brisbane Bulletsv

Adelaide

Feb 9, 2024·NBL

W95–88

Adelaidev

Brisbane Bullets

Dec 24, 2023·NBL

L86–71

Brisbane Bulletsv

Adelaide

Sep 29, 2023·NBL

177.9Avg total points

15.9Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Adelaide

5–550%

Brisbane Bullets

4–544%

Recent Form

Adelaide

7W 8L · last 15

at New Zealand Breakers108–101 Oct 30NBL

at South East Melbourne94–108 Oct 24NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers94–88 Oct 16NBL

at Sydney84–78 Oct 11NBL

vs Melbourne United91–96 Oct 7NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers72–88 Oct 4NBL

at Illawarra Hawks92–114 Oct 2NBL

vs Cairns Taipans83–69 Sep 27NBL

at Perth97–98 Sep 24NBL

at Melbourne United97–95 Sep 19NBL

at Sydney101–113 OTApr 5NBL

vs Sydney92–91 Apr 1NBL

at Sydney93–106 Mar 29NBL

vs Sydney91–89 Mar 27NBL

at Sydney68–112 Mar 21NBL

Brisbane Bullets

4W 11L · last 15

vs Cairns Taipans85–107 Oct 29NBL

at Illawarra Hawks98–81 Oct 24NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers85–106 Oct 21NBL

vs South East Melbourne115–105 Oct 15NBL

at Cairns Taipans91–97 Oct 8NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers99–109 OTOct 3NBL

at Sydney78–93 Sep 30NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks103–95 Sep 25NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers88–85 Sep 22NBL

vs Sydney77–117 Feb 20NBL

at Perth75–94 Feb 13NBL

vs Cairns Taipans72–81 Feb 8NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers70–114 Feb 6NBL

vs Adelaide74–107 Jan 28NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks75–113 Jan 26NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Adelaide

Stats

3–2

Brisbane Bullets

Adelaide leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %15/14 games+0.2pp

54.2%

+0.2pp

54.4%

3-point %15/14 games+4.0pp

32.6%

+4.0pp

28.6%

Free-throw %15/14 games+7.5pp

76.1%

+7.5pp

68.6%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s15/14 games4.3pp apart

35.2%

4.3pp apart

30.9%

Free throws per shot15/14 games4.0pp apart

28.8%

4.0pp apart

24.8%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game15/14 games+3.9

33.3

+3.9

37.2

Turnovers per game3.6 fewer

10.5

3.6 fewer

14.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.