EuroLeagueFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Paris93Valencia104

Fri 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges1–0100%

Points by period: Paris and Valencia.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Paris	26	28	16	23
Valencia	32	25	26	21

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Paris are 1-5 in the EuroLeague and host a Valencia team averaging 97.2 points in Europe; the 40-minute read is Valencia by about five.

With Hifi and Warren expected back, Paris should improve on their 87.8 points a game at home, so the scoring should hold up. Over 184.5 combined points at 1.93 is the one price that holds; Paris under 90.5 at 1.85 does not.

Context

Hifi and Warren are reported as expected back for Paris but not confirmed, which could lift a home offence averaging 87.8 points in EuroLeague play; Valencia's European form has swung, from 28 points up against Olympiacos on 13 October to a 116-93 league win over Murcia on 18 October.

Hifi is Paris's main offensive reference and topped the EuroLeague scoring list at 20.2 points per game after six rounds. He hurt an ankle late in the 11 October league win over Strasbourg and was limping as he left the floor, then sat out the narrow home loss to Virtus Bologna, the 90-81 defeat at Crvena Zvezda two days later and the 90-75 league win over Boulazac. Lefèvre said on 21 October that he expects Hifi back for the Valencia game. A returning Hifi restores Paris's primary shot-creator and pull-up threat and eases the load on Tyson Etienne, who has taken most of the late shot attempts in his absence. Whether he plays, and how much, remains unresolved; official confirmation is pending.
- Nadir Hifi left the win over Strasbourg on 11 October with an ankle problem and was limping at the end of the game.
- Paris lost 90-81 in Belgrade on 16 October with Hifi, TJ Warren and Frank Ntilikina all missing.
- Maxime Lefèvre said on 21 October that he expects to have Hifi available against Valencia.
- Hifi led the EuroLeague in scoring after six rounds at 20.2 points per game.
Warren scored 19 points in the 94-96 home loss to Virtus Bologna on 14 October, a game Paris lost when Tyson Etienne's 23 points were not enough and the winning attempt fell short. He has been unavailable since, and Paris went to Belgrade without him, Hifi and Ntilikina and lost 90-81. Lefèvre said on 21 October that he expects Warren for the Valencia game, matching the expectation set two days after the Belgrade defeat. Warren gives Paris a bigger wing who can score inside and create his own shot, an option that was thin while Etienne and Jared Rhoden carried the scoring. His return would lengthen the forward rotation behind Léopold Cavalière and Daulton Hommes. Official confirmation is pending.
- TJ Warren has been out injured and was expected to return against Valencia on 23 October.
- Warren scored 19 points in the 94-96 home loss to Virtus Bologna on 14 October.
- He did not play in the 90-81 defeat at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October, when Paris also lacked Hifi and Ntilikina.
- Maxime Lefèvre said on 21 October that he expects to have Warren available.
Ntilikina has not featured in Paris's recent run, missing the Belgrade trip and the 90-75 league win over Boulazac. Expectations on 18 October put his chances of facing Valencia below those of Hifi and Warren, and Lefèvre was again more cautious about him on 21 October. The French international guard gives Paris size and defensive length in the backcourt and can share ball-handling with Hifi and Tyson Etienne, so his absence keeps more of the creation on those two and on Joël Ayayi. No timeline has been offered, so this is a live doubt about the Valencia game rather than a settled absence, and it should not be read as a confirmed non-appearance.
- Ntilikina was absent from the 16 October Belgrade defeat and from the 90-75 league win over Boulazac on 18 October.
- Reporting on 18 October placed his chances of facing Valencia below those of Hifi and Warren.
- The Paris coach was more cautious about Ntilikina than about the other two when he updated fitness on 21 October.
Valencia's double week collapsed in different ways. At home on 13 October they led Olympiacos by 28 points and still lost in overtime, and two days later they went down to Maccabi, leaving Xavi Albert's team with three consecutive defeats across competitions. The response came on 18 October with a 116-93 Liga Endesa win over UCAM Murcia in which Jasiel Rivero scored 20 and TJ Shorts opened with seven early points. That swing is the frame for the Paris trip: Valencia have the scoring to punish a team missing rotation players, but their European results have been erratic and the Murcia win came in a different competition. It shows a recovery in form without settling whether the EuroLeague problems are fixed.
- Olympiacos came back from 28 points down to beat Valencia in overtime in Valencia on 13 October.
- Valencia lost to Maccabi on 15 October, a second European defeat in the double week.
- Valencia beat UCAM Murcia 116-93 on 18 October, with Jasiel Rivero scoring 20, ending a run of three straight defeats.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Total PointswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 184.5

1.93fair 1.75

Market 51.8% · BetBugs 57.1%

+5.3ppedge

Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. The game has more than 184.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this. Valencia's EuroLeague scoring and ball security point to them reaching the mid-90s, while Paris at home with a healthier backcourt should improve on their low recent European totals. The game should be close but favor Valencia.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. Paris cover +6.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 75 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Paris and 15 for Valencia, across seasons and competitions.
- Valencia average 97.2 points across their six EuroLeague games (4-2), including 105-92 at Lyon on 2 October and 111-88 at home to Baskonia on 29 September.
- Paris average 84.0 points across six EuroLeague games (1-5), but 87.8 at home in four, with home losses of 94-96 to Virtus Bologna on 14 October and 96-98 to Lyon on 7 October.
- Valencia have shot 36.8% on threes and 78.1% on free throws with 9.7 turnovers per game across 15 games; Paris have shot 32.9% on threes with 14.3 turnovers per game.
- In last season's two meetings, Paris won 90-86 at home on 13 November 2025 and Valencia won 98-84 at home on 20 January 2026, a split small sample.
- Paris were without Hifi and Warren in the 81-90 loss at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October; both are reported as expected back, but their return is not confirmed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapwonParis +6.5Estimated chance74.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. Valencia win in about 66 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Valencia average 97.2 points across their six EuroLeague games (4-2), including 105-92 at Lyon on 2 October and 111-88 at home to Baskonia on 29 September.
- Paris average 84.0 points across six EuroLeague games (1-5), but 87.8 at home in four, with home losses of 94-96 to Virtus Bologna on 14 October and 96-98 to Lyon on 7 October.
- Valencia have shot 36.8% on threes and 78.1% on free throws with 9.7 turnovers per game across 15 games; Paris have shot 32.9% on threes with 14.3 turnovers per game.
- In last season's two meetings, Paris won 90-86 at home on 13 November 2025 and Valencia won 98-84 at home on 20 January 2026, a split small sample.
- Paris were without Hifi and Warren in the 81-90 loss at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October; both are reported as expected back, but their return is not confirmed.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonValenciaEstimated chance66.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. Valencia are ahead at the end of the 40 minutes in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia average 97.2 points across their six EuroLeague games (4-2), including 105-92 at Lyon on 2 October and 111-88 at home to Baskonia on 29 September.
- Paris average 84.0 points across six EuroLeague games (1-5), but 87.8 at home in four, with home losses of 94-96 to Virtus Bologna on 14 October and 96-98 to Lyon on 7 October.
- Valencia have shot 36.8% on threes and 78.1% on free throws with 9.7 turnovers per game across 15 games; Paris have shot 32.9% on threes with 14.3 turnovers per game.
- In last season's two meetings, Paris won 90-86 at home on 13 November 2025 and Valencia won 98-84 at home on 20 January 2026, a split small sample.
- Paris were without Hifi and Warren in the 81-90 loss at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October; both are reported as expected back, but their return is not confirmed.
BetBugs · Result after 40 minwonValenciaEstimated chance64.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. Valencia are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 60 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia average 97.2 points across their six EuroLeague games (4-2), including 105-92 at Lyon on 2 October and 111-88 at home to Baskonia on 29 September.
- Paris average 84.0 points across six EuroLeague games (1-5), but 87.8 at home in four, with home losses of 94-96 to Virtus Bologna on 14 October and 96-98 to Lyon on 7 October.
- Valencia have shot 36.8% on threes and 78.1% on free throws with 9.7 turnovers per game across 15 games; Paris have shot 32.9% on threes with 14.3 turnovers per game.
- In last season's two meetings, Paris won 90-86 at home on 13 November 2025 and Valencia won 98-84 at home on 20 January 2026, a split small sample.
- Paris were without Hifi and Warren in the 81-90 loss at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October; both are reported as expected back, but their return is not confirmed.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultwonValenciaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. Paris cover +2.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 57 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Paris and 15 for Valencia, across seasons and competitions.
- Valencia average 97.2 points across their six EuroLeague games (4-2), including 105-92 at Lyon on 2 October and 111-88 at home to Baskonia on 29 September.
- Paris average 84.0 points across six EuroLeague games (1-5), but 87.8 at home in four, with home losses of 94-96 to Virtus Bologna on 14 October and 96-98 to Lyon on 7 October.
- Valencia have shot 36.8% on threes and 78.1% on free throws with 9.7 turnovers per game across 15 games; Paris have shot 32.9% on threes with 14.3 turnovers per game.
- In last season's two meetings, Paris won 90-86 at home on 13 November 2025 and Valencia won 98-84 at home on 20 January 2026, a split small sample.
- Paris were without Hifi and Warren in the 81-90 loss at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October; both are reported as expected back, but their return is not confirmed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicaplostParis +2.5Estimated chance57.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. Valencia are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia average 97.2 points across their six EuroLeague games (4-2), including 105-92 at Lyon on 2 October and 111-88 at home to Baskonia on 29 September.
- Paris average 84.0 points across six EuroLeague games (1-5), but 87.8 at home in four, with home losses of 94-96 to Virtus Bologna on 14 October and 96-98 to Lyon on 7 October.
- Valencia have shot 36.8% on threes and 78.1% on free throws with 9.7 turnovers per game across 15 games; Paris have shot 32.9% on threes with 14.3 turnovers per game.
- In last season's two meetings, Paris won 90-86 at home on 13 November 2025 and Valencia won 98-84 at home on 20 January 2026, a split small sample.
- Paris were without Hifi and Warren in the 81-90 loss at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October; both are reported as expected back, but their return is not confirmed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultlostValenciaEstimated chance56.4%

Points4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. Paris score more than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia average 97.2 points across their six EuroLeague games (4-2), including 105-92 at Lyon on 2 October and 111-88 at home to Baskonia on 29 September.
- Paris average 84.0 points across six EuroLeague games (1-5), but 87.8 at home in four, with home losses of 94-96 to Virtus Bologna on 14 October and 96-98 to Lyon on 7 October.
- Valencia have shot 36.8% on threes and 78.1% on free throws with 9.7 turnovers per game across 15 games; Paris have shot 32.9% on threes with 14.3 turnovers per game.
- In last season's two meetings, Paris won 90-86 at home on 13 November 2025 and Valencia won 98-84 at home on 20 January 2026, a split small sample.
- Paris were without Hifi and Warren in the 81-90 loss at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October; both are reported as expected back, but their return is not confirmed.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointslostParis over 21.5Estimated chance57.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. Valencia score more than 94.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia average 97.2 points across their six EuroLeague games (4-2), including 105-92 at Lyon on 2 October and 111-88 at home to Baskonia on 29 September.
- Paris average 84.0 points across six EuroLeague games (1-5), but 87.8 at home in four, with home losses of 94-96 to Virtus Bologna on 14 October and 96-98 to Lyon on 7 October.
- Valencia have shot 36.8% on threes and 78.1% on free throws with 9.7 turnovers per game across 15 games; Paris have shot 32.9% on threes with 14.3 turnovers per game.
- In last season's two meetings, Paris won 90-86 at home on 13 November 2025 and Valencia won 98-84 at home on 20 January 2026, a split small sample.
- Paris were without Hifi and Warren in the 81-90 loss at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October; both are reported as expected back, but their return is not confirmed.
BetBugs · Team PointswonValencia over 94.5Estimated chance57.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. The 2nd quarter has more than 45.5 points in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia average 97.2 points across their six EuroLeague games (4-2), including 105-92 at Lyon on 2 October and 111-88 at home to Baskonia on 29 September.
- Paris average 84.0 points across six EuroLeague games (1-5), but 87.8 at home in four, with home losses of 94-96 to Virtus Bologna on 14 October and 96-98 to Lyon on 7 October.
- Valencia have shot 36.8% on threes and 78.1% on free throws with 9.7 turnovers per game across 15 games; Paris have shot 32.9% on threes with 14.3 turnovers per game.
- In last season's two meetings, Paris won 90-86 at home on 13 November 2025 and Valencia won 98-84 at home on 20 January 2026, a split small sample.
- Paris were without Hifi and Warren in the 81-90 loss at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October; both are reported as expected back, but their return is not confirmed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointswonOver 45.5Estimated chance57.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.93
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. The game has more than 184.5 points (overtime included) in about 57 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia average 97.2 points across their six EuroLeague games (4-2), including 105-92 at Lyon on 2 October and 111-88 at home to Baskonia on 29 September.
- Paris average 84.0 points across six EuroLeague games (1-5), but 87.8 at home in four, with home losses of 94-96 to Virtus Bologna on 14 October and 96-98 to Lyon on 7 October.
- Valencia have shot 36.8% on threes and 78.1% on free throws with 9.7 turnovers per game across 15 games; Paris have shot 32.9% on threes with 14.3 turnovers per game.
- In last season's two meetings, Paris won 90-86 at home on 13 November 2025 and Valencia won 98-84 at home on 20 January 2026, a split small sample.
- Paris were without Hifi and Warren in the 81-90 loss at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October; both are reported as expected back, but their return is not confirmed.
BetBugs · Total PointswonOver 184.5Estimated chance57.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Paris 90.7, Valencia 96.0. Valencia score more than 23.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Valencia average 97.2 points across their six EuroLeague games (4-2), including 105-92 at Lyon on 2 October and 111-88 at home to Baskonia on 29 September.
- Paris average 84.0 points across six EuroLeague games (1-5), but 87.8 at home in four, with home losses of 94-96 to Virtus Bologna on 14 October and 96-98 to Lyon on 7 October.
- Valencia have shot 36.8% on threes and 78.1% on free throws with 9.7 turnovers per game across 15 games; Paris have shot 32.9% on threes with 14.3 turnovers per game.
- In last season's two meetings, Paris won 90-86 at home on 13 November 2025 and Valencia won 98-84 at home on 20 January 2026, a split small sample.
- Paris were without Hifi and Warren in the 81-90 loss at Crvena Zvezda on 16 October; both are reported as expected back, but their return is not confirmed.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointswonValencia over 23.5Estimated chance56%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotOct 22, 17:47

Selected line

184.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

57%

Chance of 185+ points

+5 pp above break-even

Over 1.93 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 57%.

Move the line main 184.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 57%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 43%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L98–84

Valenciav

Paris

Jan 20, 2026·EUR

W90–86

Parisv

Valencia

Nov 13, 2025·EUR

179Avg total points

9Avg margin

2meetings

League table

EuroLeague · Euroleague - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Paris

1–517%

Valencia

4–267%

Recent Form

Paris

8W 7L · last 15

vs Boulazac90–75 Oct 18LNB

at Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet81–90 Oct 16EUR

vs Virtus Bologna94–96 Oct 14EUR

vs Strasbourg98–84 Oct 11LNB

vs Lyon-Villeurbanne96–98 Oct 7EUR

at Le Mans103–101 Oct 4LNB

vs Zalgiris Kaunas82–78 Oct 1EUR

vs Partizan Mozzart Bet79–92 Sep 29EUR

at Nancy78–73 Sep 27LNB

at Panathinaikos72–91 Sep 24EUR

at Roanne81–59 Sep 20LNB

vs Nanterre95–88 Sep 19LNB

vs Monaco92–101 Jun 23LNB

at Monaco84–96 Jun 21LNB

at Monaco88–77 Jun 19LNB

Valencia

9W 6L · last 15

vs Murcia116–93 Oct 18ACB

vs Maccabi Tel Aviv88–91 Oct 15EUR

vs Olympiacos97–102 OTOct 13EUR

at Barcelona86–89 Oct 11ACB

vs Hapoel Tel Aviv93–82 Oct 8EUR

at Basket Zaragoza97–82 Oct 4ACB

at Lyon-Villeurbanne105–92 Oct 2EUR

vs Baskonia111–88 Sep 29EUR

vs Forca Lleida100–105 Sep 27ACB

at Besiktas96–94 Sep 25EUR

vs Barcelona86–87 Sep 19SUP

at Barcelona108–84 Jun 24ACB

at Barcelona88–80 Jun 22ACB

vs Barcelona102–75 Jun 20ACB

vs Barcelona112–113 OTJun 18ACB

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Paris

Stats

2–3

Valencia

Valencia leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+0.3pp

56.2%

+0.3pp

55.9%

3-point %+3.9pp

32.9%

+3.9pp

36.8%

Free-throw %12/11 games+3.9pp

74.2%

+3.9pp

78.1%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s3.6pp apart

36.1%

3.6pp apart

32.5%

Free throws per shot12/11 games0.1pp apart

32.3%

0.1pp apart

32.4%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+1.0

36.1

+1.0

35.1

Turnovers per game4.6 fewer

14.3

4.6 fewer

9.7

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.