Back to matches
Fiorentina - Rakow Czestochowa
Conference LeagueUpcoming
Thursday, March 12, 2026 at 20:00
Quick Take
Fiorentina's historic domestic crisis and key absentees (Kean doubtful, Pongracic suspended) meet Rakow's tournament-best defensive record (2 goals conceded in 6 Conference League games) and new manager's clean sheet efficiency — expect a cautious, low-scoring first leg with Rakow's disciplined setup potentially worth backing over the odds-on Fiorentina home favouritism.
Predictions
Markets to Avoid
Goals Over/Under Under 2.5:MEDIUM confidence (58% estimated) but odds imply 54.1%. Edge of only 3.9pts falls below 5pt threshold required for value at this confidence level.
Both Teams to Score No:MEDIUM confidence (55% estimated) but odds imply 52.4%. Edge of only 2.6pts is insufficient; lacks the 5pt margin needed for MEDIUM confidence plays.
Total Goals Away Under 1.5:Market is overpricing this selection. Predictor estimates 60% but odds (1.29) imply 77.5%. The 17.5pt discrepancy suggests the market has greater conviction than stats support. Avoid.
Total Goals Home Under 1.5:MEDIUM confidence (58% estimated) but odds imply 54.1%. Edge of only 3.9pts falls short of the 5pt threshold. No genuine mispricing.
This Conference League Round of 16 first leg pits a Fiorentina side in historic domestic crisis against a resilient Rakow Czestochowa team that has been one of the tournament's most disciplined sides. Fiorentina's season has been catastrophic — multiple manager changes (Palladino sacked in summer 2025, Pioli lasting just 10 Serie A games before being replaced by Paolo Vanoli in November), a €90m summer spending spree that failed to deliver, and a descent from near-Scudetto contenders into a relegation battle.
Recent Form
Fiorentina
D0-0ParmaMar 8SA
L0-3UdineseMar 2SA
W1-0PisaFeb 23SA
W3-0JagielloniaFeb 19UEF
W2-1ComoFeb 14SA
D2-2TorinoFeb 7SA
L1-2NapoliJan 31SA
L1-3ComoJan 27CI
L1-2CagliariJan 24SA
W2-1BolognaJan 18SA
Rakow Czestochowa
W2-0Pogon SzczecinMar 8EKS
L3-4Lech PoznanMar 1EKS
W1-0NiecieczaFeb 21EKS
D0-0Zaglebie LubinFeb 14EKS
D0-0Radomiak RadomFeb 8EKS
L1-2Wisla PlockFeb 1EKS
W2-1SKRA CzęstochowaJan 28FRI
W3-1VojvodinaJan 23FRI
D1-1FK PartizanJan 18FRI
D2-2LudogoretsJan 14FRI
League Table
UEFA Europa Conference League 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fiorentina Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 2 | Rakow Czestochowa Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +7 | 14 |
5pt gap between teams
Head-to-head record not yet available.